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Morning report 12/08/2024 09:52

Macro Monday: Equities become fickle right on cue as we traverse August.

A quick look at the US VIX (volatility) Index, largely renamed “Fear Gauge,” puts the last few weeks' panic selling into perspective. The BOJ's rate hike, combined with fears that the Fed was going to push the US into a recession by cutting interest rates too slowly, sent shockwaves through global equities, although ultimately, the ASX200 and S&P 500 only fell 6.4% and 9.7%, respectively. However, it was the manner of sharp declines which caught a relatively complacent market, which had been revelling in new all-time highs through much of July, napping:

Morning report 09/08/2024 09:42

What Matters Today: Weight loss drugs gain further traction; four stocks to consider buying & selling

Morning report 08/08/2024 09:59

What Matters Today: If interest rates are set to fall, will insurance stocks follow suit?

Morning report 07/08/2024 09:47

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA is in no hurry to cut interest rates, they say!

The market clearly doubts whether the RBA seriously considered another hike. We’ve been saying for months that the RBA doesn’t want to hike, although it's not totally off the table, and this view still feels on point. A few days of market volatility, largely driven by the unwind of the “Yen Carry Trade”, isn’t enough to make central banks cut interest rates; inflation is their primary focus, although they will remain vigilant to external circumstances, including ongoing market volatility. If we stand back and put things into context, the ASX200 is up +1.2% in 2024 and posted new all-time highs last week, numbers that shouldn’t unsettle the RBA.

Morning report 06/08/2024 09:39

What Matters Today: How should investors tread through today’s market minefield?

The ASX200 plunged almost 300 points on Monday as global equity markets continued to panic that a recession was imminent for the US and the rest of the world would follow suit. Nobody felt the pain more than Japan following the BOJ’s rate hike last week; the Nikkei was down a staggering 12.4%, its worst day since “Black Monday” in 1987, wiping out all of this year's gains in one fell swoop. We believe the unwinding of the “Carry Trade” has been the catalyst that has ignited the current volatility – more on this later. Market sentiment has turned on a sixpence as reduced liquidity collided with the perceived increased risk of an economic slowdown; cash has become the asset class of choice for many investors, i.e. if in doubt, get out! Everything from stocks, gold and Bitcoin, has sold as “risk off” ruled dominated over recent days.

Morning report 05/08/2024 09:24

Macro Monday: In just 48 hours, rate cut joy flips to recession fears

The end of last week saw a significant change in the market’s perception of “bad economic news”. Instead of being embraced by equities in anticipation of future interest rate cuts, it led to aggressive selling as fears of a recession escalated exponentially.

Morning report 02/08/2024 09:38

What Matters Today: Has Albemarle signalled a low is near for lithium stocks?

US equities endured a tough session on Thursday night as a new chapter was turned with rate cuts fully built into markets but fears of a recession are gaining momentum. The concept of a ‘hard landing’ has felt like a dormant beast, with bad economic news being welcomed by stocks because it stoked optimism about rate cuts; this has now changed, with traders now scarred that the Fed have been too slow cutting rates and a tougher economic reality is a real possibility. The bond market is already telling us that Jerome Powell et al. may be behind the curve. Not all stocks felt the selling, with Meta Platforms (META US) closing up +4.8% on stronger-than-expected 2nd quarter results and upbeat guidance.

Morning report 01/08/2024 09:53

What Matters Today: Three switches on MM’s radar as equities surge higher

It took an almighty +1.75% surge on the 31st, but July has again delivered a stellar performance. For 2024, the seasonally strong month delivered an impressive +4.2% gain, eclipsing the average return over the last decade of +3%. We are excited about the market following yesterday’s CPI. Still, we will continue to focus on the stock and sector rotation, especially as August/September is historically the weakest seasonal period for stocks – the average decline over the last decade for these 2-months is -3.8%.

Morning report 31/07/2024 09:39

Portfolio Positioning: It’s time for the fun & games of reporting season

The ASX200 recovered strongly from an aggressive early morning sell-off on Tuesday to close down 0.5%, not a great result but far better than the earlier 1.2% drop. The index actually managed to end the session close to its intraday high as bargain hunters surfaced in most areas except for the resources—again! Following the placement of 100 million Fortescue (FMG) shares at $18.55, the iron ore miner fell over 10%, contributing almost a third of the ASX’s decline. When combined with BHP’s 53c drop, we had two major miners making up over 50% of the main board's 36-point drop.

Morning report 30/07/2024 10:57

What Matters Today: If you think Trump will win, Gold’s a “good bet”

US equities had a cautious overnight session ahead of this week's major tech reports. Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon are likely to determine whether tech stocks can bounce back from last week’s declines. So far, with just over 40% of S&P 500 having now reported, according to FactSet, Q2 blended earnings growth is running at +9.8%, up ~100 bp from end of June. Blended revenue growth rate is +5.0%. In addition, 78% have beaten consensus EPS expectations, in line with one-year average, while 60% have beaten on revenue, below the 63% average. Earnings beats are being rewarded less than average and misses being punished more than average, a theme we have flagged.