Portfolio Positioning: The clock is ticking for BHP

The potential ~$64bn takeover of Anglo-American (AAL LN) by BHP has dominated the news in recent weeks, but the clock is ticking, at 5pm London time tonight, the door will close, for now at least. It will come as no great surprise if BHP walks as Anglo’s CEO Duncan Wanblad and the rest of the AAL board appeared to have no interest in discussing a bid – at least at the current price point BHP’s offer was implying. However, there is still a chance that BHP could lob in a “best a final” conservative bid aimed at disgruntled shareholders before the window closes, making BHP a tricky proposition at current levels.

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Latest Reports

Afternoon report 24/03/2025 17:04

The Match Out: ASX ekes out small gain on bank buying, Hardies hit on major acquisition.

The market opened down ~20pts before U.S futures kicked in mid-morning spurring a small rally to ~7935 before sitting in a 10-point trading range for the remainder of the day. A negative reaction to the blockbuster acquisition by James Hardie (JHX) highlighted a continued aversion to the U.S early on, though our market was quickly buoyed by a flight to financials, with banks enjoying a good start to the week.

Morning report 24/03/2025 09:44

Macro Monday: A recession or not, that is the question

Most pundits are blaming Trump 2.0 and the accompanying uncertainty that tariffs entail for the reason that many global indices have corrected from their recent highs; for example, the ASX 200 has fallen 10.2%, and the US S&P 500 has fallen 10.5%.

Weekend report 22/03/2025 08:57

Weekend Q&A: Stocks bounce on an absence of fresh tariff news

It was a better week for local stocks, with the ASX 200 bouncing 1.8% on broad-based gains, which saw all 11 major sectors advance, led by an unusual combination of consumer staples and energy stocks. Following a tough four weeks, the Australian share market notched its best weekly positive performance of 2025, but with new tariffs due on April 2nd, it could still become the calm before the storm. The lack of fresh tariff news and encouraging developments on the interest rate front was enough to “stop the rot” in equity land, but how the market deals with the next wave of bad news will tell us the real story.

Afternoon report 21/03/2025 16:57

The Match Out: ASX grinds higher, staples rally on ACCC findings

Fridays have generally been weak on the ASX with traders showing little appetite to hold stocks over the weekend given Trump’s propensity to make headlines, however, this week was characterized by fewer headlines from the Whitehouse and stocks bounced back as a result, with the main board up 1.8% over the 5 sessions with all sectors finishing in the green.

Morning report 21/03/2025 09:31

What Matters Today: ETF Friday focuses on commodities

The ASX 200 enjoyed its best day in six weeks, surging 1.2% on Thursday, clearing 7,900 on broad-based buying, which saw over 80% of the main board close higher. Positive economic news from both the US and domestic markets, particularly regarding interest rates, spurred the rally in equities.

Afternoon report 20/03/2025 17:03

The Match Out: ASX rallies as the employment situation cools, May rate cut now on the cards

A very solid bounce back on the ASX today with ~85% of the main board finishing higher. Risk was back on with technology + market linked stocks leading the way, though resources lagged.

Morning report 20/03/2025 18:46

What Matters Today: Is BYD signalling it’s time to buy Lithium stocks?

The ASX 200 retreated 0.4% on Wednesday due to broad-based selling, with over 75% of the main board closing lower. The rate-sensitive utilities and real estate sectors underperformed, both falling by more than 1.3%, while the healthcare sector's 0.5% gain was the main glimmer of hope for the bulls.

Afternoon report 19/03/2025 16:58

The Match Out: ASX down, though showing signs of life

The worst of the session was seen early with the market attracting some bargain hunters as the day progressed despite a mixed bag in term of corporate updates. WiseTech (WTC) and Mineral Resources (MIN) in focus for the wrong reasons, while Myer (MYR) was also volatile after they released 1H25 results.

Morning report 19/03/2025 09:38

Portfolio Positioning: The market’s resilience set to be tested again

Tuesday saw local shares pare early gains to finish only slightly higher as US futures slipped away on escalating conflict in the Middle East. The ASX200 closed up just 6 points, surrendering almost 90% of its early morning gain, although over 60% of the main board managed to advance.

Afternoon report 18/03/2025 16:27

The Match Out: ASX edges higher, New Hope (NHC) reports & rallies

A solid start to trade this morning with the main board rallying back above 7900, however, sellers kicked into gear from just before midday with the index finishing ~60pts below the morning highs.