The infamous May is upon us, although, as we’ve pointed out recently, the ASX200 has rallied through 6 out of the last 10 Mays, delivering investors an average small net gain. Subscribers who like to watch the market seasonality closely should be far more concerned by August and September; the average loss over these 2-months over the last decade is 3.84%. At this stage, we remain net bullish towards the ASX, especially when we reference the highly correlated Canadian TSX and UK FTSE indices, with the latter again notching new highs early in last night's session. However, two of the market's recent strong characteristics continue to prevail, and they need to be understood to add alpha (performance) to portfolios.
Investors are rapidly losing confidence that some major central banks will cut interest rates in 2024, while the local futures markets are becoming increasingly confident that the RBA will actually hike before Christmas. At MM, we believe the rate cuts will come, but investors may need to be patient as it wasn’t that long ago that central banks read the inflation picture incorrectly, which led to the aggressive rate hiking cycle through 2021/2 in an attempt to put the “inflation genie back in the lamp” a goal that hasn’t yet been fully achieved. The point is they don’t want to get it wrong again and cut too early only to have to hike soon after as strong economic activity reignites inflation.
Excuse today's title; blame Shawn as we contemplated Michelle Bullock's first move with interest rates since becoming the Governor of the RBA in September. The new head of the RBA has remained cautious towards both inflation and interest rates through 2023/4, and we see no reason for this to change. The RBA got it totally wrong on Philip Lowe’s watch, believing inflation was only temporary after COVID, a view which resulted in the dramatic rate hikes witnessed through 2022 and 2023. Bullock should and is adopting a cautionary stance until, hopefully, she is confident that inflation will return to its 2-3% target band.
The ASX consumer discretionary (retail) stocks have demonstrated their need for a strong bond market. In the short term, we remain concerned they’ve disconnected slightly from the influential credit markets. Futures markets are starting to price in the risk of rate hikes in 2024, with some well-respected economists becoming increasingly hawkish. Judo Bank’s Warren Hogan is calling for three hikes to 5.1%; previously, he was looking for cuts in 2025, but the recent hot inflation data has seen him reverse this outlook. We feel the call for rates to hit 5.1% in 2024 is too aggressive, but we cannot see Michele Bullock considering rate cuts until the inflation genie is firmly back in the bottle.
Bond markets have struggled over recent weeks as inflation appeared increasingly “sticky,” but it hardly registers on the chart compared to their weakness through 2021/2 and mid-2023. We believe the local credit markets have come back to realistic levels as the RBA awaits further economic data to deliver clarity on the underlying strength and direction of the local economy. Traders have gone from being far too optimistic on rate cuts into Christmas to becoming almost pessimistic; the US futures markets have gone from pricing in three cuts to 1.77 cuts, or one definitely, and probably two.
On Monday, Citi joined Macquarie with a “sell call” on the major banks, which saw the sector reverse early gains to close near their intra-day lows, ANZ even slipped into negative territory. There were two major reasons behind their bearish stance:
• Citi believes the valuations of the banks are stretched considering the potential political “attacks on their profits”, i.e. when the RBA starts cutting, they will be forced to follow suit at the expense of profitability.
• Macquarie said to “sell” the banks in mid-March as the sector posted new highs, again a call on valuation grounds; good timing so far!
The cornerstone of Citi's argument is valuation, which could be applied to the whole market when the ASX200 is challenging new all-time highs. Overall, it is an understandable view, but we question if it's a good enough reason to exit the sector, forgoing enticing dividends and potentially incurring capital gains issues after the “Big Four” have run so hard.
Last week’s Bank of Americas Fund Managers Survey showed the market is the most bullish in over two years on the back of the biggest jump in global growth optimism since May 2022 – allocations to stocks and commodities hit a 27-month high, at the expense of bonds, with cash levels falling to 4.2% from 4.4% in the previous month - just shy of the sub-4% level that traditionally signals a contrarian sell indicator for equities according to the BofA Global FMS Cash Rule. Conversely, an increasing number of fund managers now believe gold is the most overpriced since COVID. The most crowded trade recognized by fund managers continues to be the "Long Magnificent 7.” Overall, last week was not the best time for Fund managers!
Through March and April, we discussed how indices were priced for perfection on the interest rate front. Now, as reality sets in, we consider if/when and how we should consider fading this “less dovish” outlook for US rate cuts. Just like squeezing an orange, removing the last 10% of the juice is far more complex than the first 10%, and this is the case for inflation, which has been demonstrated perfectly over recent months. However, arguably the biggest issue for the Fed and other central banks is the inflationary implications of an elevated oil price courtesy of the tensions in the Middle East, an issue well beyond the influence of Jerome Powell et al. The mantra of “higher for longer” concerning rates feels on point at the moment, which has been the subsequent cause of April's weakness in equities.
Yesterday saw Gina Rinehart emerge as a significant player in Lynas (LYC) after taking her stake to almost 6% over the last few days, although compared to her net wealth, the purchases were a poultry drop in the ocean. LYC is the world's largest non-China producer of rare earths, although China still produces almost 70% of the world's rare earths, with Australia's ~5% output more of a supporting role. Gina's move could be largely motivated by her intention to merge US-listed MP Materials (MP US), which has a market cap. of ~$4.3bn, and the local and larger $6bn rare earth player Lynas (LYC), i.e. it would form a relative $10bn rare earth giant.
Earlier in the year, we felt markets were far too optimistic towards rate cuts, i.e. US futures were pricing in three cuts before Christmas, the best possible outcome and even with the Feds rhetoric continually targeting three cuts, the risks of two remained high. Now, we believe things are swinging in the other direction. The market is now pricing in 1.69 cuts by Christmas; at MM, we’re rarely keen to fight the Fed, and we think two cuts remain a strong possibility, as they remain keen to cut at some stage, i.e. markets are now too pessimistic, ultimately good news for rate-sensitive stocks/sectors.
Investors are rapidly losing confidence that some major central banks will cut interest rates in 2024, while the local futures markets are becoming increasingly confident that the RBA will actually hike before Christmas. At MM, we believe the rate cuts will come, but investors may need to be patient as it wasn’t that long ago that central banks read the inflation picture incorrectly, which led to the aggressive rate hiking cycle through 2021/2 in an attempt to put the “inflation genie back in the lamp” a goal that hasn’t yet been fully achieved. The point is they don’t want to get it wrong again and cut too early only to have to hike soon after as strong economic activity reignites inflation.
Excuse today's title; blame Shawn as we contemplated Michelle Bullock's first move with interest rates since becoming the Governor of the RBA in September. The new head of the RBA has remained cautious towards both inflation and interest rates through 2023/4, and we see no reason for this to change. The RBA got it totally wrong on Philip Lowe’s watch, believing inflation was only temporary after COVID, a view which resulted in the dramatic rate hikes witnessed through 2022 and 2023. Bullock should and is adopting a cautionary stance until, hopefully, she is confident that inflation will return to its 2-3% target band.
The ASX consumer discretionary (retail) stocks have demonstrated their need for a strong bond market. In the short term, we remain concerned they’ve disconnected slightly from the influential credit markets. Futures markets are starting to price in the risk of rate hikes in 2024, with some well-respected economists becoming increasingly hawkish. Judo Bank’s Warren Hogan is calling for three hikes to 5.1%; previously, he was looking for cuts in 2025, but the recent hot inflation data has seen him reverse this outlook. We feel the call for rates to hit 5.1% in 2024 is too aggressive, but we cannot see Michele Bullock considering rate cuts until the inflation genie is firmly back in the bottle.
Bond markets have struggled over recent weeks as inflation appeared increasingly “sticky,” but it hardly registers on the chart compared to their weakness through 2021/2 and mid-2023. We believe the local credit markets have come back to realistic levels as the RBA awaits further economic data to deliver clarity on the underlying strength and direction of the local economy. Traders have gone from being far too optimistic on rate cuts into Christmas to becoming almost pessimistic; the US futures markets have gone from pricing in three cuts to 1.77 cuts, or one definitely, and probably two.
On Monday, Citi joined Macquarie with a “sell call” on the major banks, which saw the sector reverse early gains to close near their intra-day lows, ANZ even slipped into negative territory. There were two major reasons behind their bearish stance:
• Citi believes the valuations of the banks are stretched considering the potential political “attacks on their profits”, i.e. when the RBA starts cutting, they will be forced to follow suit at the expense of profitability.
• Macquarie said to “sell” the banks in mid-March as the sector posted new highs, again a call on valuation grounds; good timing so far!
The cornerstone of Citi's argument is valuation, which could be applied to the whole market when the ASX200 is challenging new all-time highs. Overall, it is an understandable view, but we question if it's a good enough reason to exit the sector, forgoing enticing dividends and potentially incurring capital gains issues after the “Big Four” have run so hard.
Last week’s Bank of Americas Fund Managers Survey showed the market is the most bullish in over two years on the back of the biggest jump in global growth optimism since May 2022 – allocations to stocks and commodities hit a 27-month high, at the expense of bonds, with cash levels falling to 4.2% from 4.4% in the previous month - just shy of the sub-4% level that traditionally signals a contrarian sell indicator for equities according to the BofA Global FMS Cash Rule. Conversely, an increasing number of fund managers now believe gold is the most overpriced since COVID. The most crowded trade recognized by fund managers continues to be the "Long Magnificent 7.” Overall, last week was not the best time for Fund managers!
Through March and April, we discussed how indices were priced for perfection on the interest rate front. Now, as reality sets in, we consider if/when and how we should consider fading this “less dovish” outlook for US rate cuts. Just like squeezing an orange, removing the last 10% of the juice is far more complex than the first 10%, and this is the case for inflation, which has been demonstrated perfectly over recent months. However, arguably the biggest issue for the Fed and other central banks is the inflationary implications of an elevated oil price courtesy of the tensions in the Middle East, an issue well beyond the influence of Jerome Powell et al. The mantra of “higher for longer” concerning rates feels on point at the moment, which has been the subsequent cause of April's weakness in equities.
Yesterday saw Gina Rinehart emerge as a significant player in Lynas (LYC) after taking her stake to almost 6% over the last few days, although compared to her net wealth, the purchases were a poultry drop in the ocean. LYC is the world's largest non-China producer of rare earths, although China still produces almost 70% of the world's rare earths, with Australia's ~5% output more of a supporting role. Gina's move could be largely motivated by her intention to merge US-listed MP Materials (MP US), which has a market cap. of ~$4.3bn, and the local and larger $6bn rare earth player Lynas (LYC), i.e. it would form a relative $10bn rare earth giant.
Earlier in the year, we felt markets were far too optimistic towards rate cuts, i.e. US futures were pricing in three cuts before Christmas, the best possible outcome and even with the Feds rhetoric continually targeting three cuts, the risks of two remained high. Now, we believe things are swinging in the other direction. The market is now pricing in 1.69 cuts by Christmas; at MM, we’re rarely keen to fight the Fed, and we think two cuts remain a strong possibility, as they remain keen to cut at some stage, i.e. markets are now too pessimistic, ultimately good news for rate-sensitive stocks/sectors.
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