The ASX 200 found support from some of 2026’s most unloved sectors on Monday, with some book-squaring seemingly at play ahead of today’s widely expected 0.25% RBA rate hike, priced at a 93% probability by Monday’s close. However, as has been the case of late, the session was more about switching than outright buying or selling, leaving the index just +0.2% higher as Financials added 33 points, almost entirely offset by a 31-point drag from Materials.
The Fed and RBA have taken different paths in the last few years, but both have ultimately started tightening again. The Fed began 2024 with rates at 5.25%-5.5%, cut aggressively by a total of 175bps to 3.5%-3.75% by December 2025, then paused as inflation pressures returned before hiking 25bps to 3.75%-4.0% earlier this month. In contrast, the RBA waited until February 2025 to start cutting and delivered just 75bps of easing, taking the cash rate from 4.35% to a low of 3.60% by August 2025. It's been hard work of late for local investors with higher interest rates and lower earnings growth:
Early weakness saw the ASX 200 make fresh 3-month lows on Thursday following a soft session on Wall Street. The banks and miners finally danced to the same tune, but unfortunately it was a bearish one, which caused ~90% of the day's decline, led by BHP Group (-1.7%), Westpac (-1.8%), and Commonwealth Bank (-0.7%).
The ASX 200 battled to a 0.1% gain on Wednesday, with BHP alone contributing about twice the index’s overall advance from a points perspective, masking underlying weakness in financials. At the stock and sector level, it was almost as if the market had tuned into yesterday’s MM webinar, “Investing in a 5% World,” with investors voting with their feet and compressing the valuations of long-duration growth stocks as bond yields remained elevated.
The ASX 200 experienced a choppy session on Tuesday before eventually closing up +0.3%, taking the index into positive territory for the week. The miners contributed more than 50% of the day's advance, but it was a relatively quiet affair considering the impressive gains in Europe and the US overnight. The tug of war at the pointy end of the market remains fairly evenly balanced, with investors only prepared to buy either the banks or miners on a day-to-day basis, appearing to use the other to fund the purchases.
The ASX 200 recovered well from an early 0.6% dip to close flat on Monday, with 45% of the main board managing to advance. Gains by the banks cancelled out losses by the miners, leaving the index evenly balanced into the close. Australian tech stocks, which are primarily software names, continued to underperform, falling 1.6% and extending their decline in 2026 to more than 25%. To put the disappointing performance into perspective, the US software sector is marginally higher for the year.
Last week saw the ASX 200 extend its September pullback to -3.8%, taking the total decline from August’s all-time high to almost -7%. The chart below highlights the uncanny similarities with 2022, when the RBA began aggressively tightening monetary policy, and Australia’s 10-year bond yield surged from around 1.5% to 4%, weighing on equity valuations. We’ve been watching with growing interest as the index continues to track the path of 2022’s “bond tantrum” remarkably closely - rising bond yields are the common denominator in both years.
The ASX 200 surprised many on the open yesterday, “gaping up” around 100 points above where it was “supposed” to open, leaving many scratching their heads, but as Shawn rightly pointed out, it's not the first and won't be the last example of market shenanigans on the expiry of the SPI Futures – particularly quarter end expiry. By the close, the local index still managed to finish +0.4% higher, aided by a more than +1% pop by US Futures in their late trade and an average +2% gain by the “Big Four” ASX banks.
The ASX 200 eked out a +0.3% gain ahead of the Fed's rate decision, primarily courtesy of a bounce by the miners, while CBA was the largest drag on the local index, slipping 0.6%. It was encouraging to see the selling pressure across the ASX subside, but with markets becoming increasingly hawkish, we feel investors require some “good news” before they take on more risk with global central banks set to start hiking as elevated oil prices continue to stoke inflation expectations.
The ASX 200 fell another 0.9% on Tuesday, extending September’s decline to 4.5% and pushing the index into negative territory for 2026. The local market has become something of the “ugly duckling” among its global peers, particularly compared with Japan’s Nikkei (+24%) and the US S&P 500 (+12%).
The Fed and RBA have taken different paths in the last few years, but both have ultimately started tightening again. The Fed began 2024 with rates at 5.25%-5.5%, cut aggressively by a total of 175bps to 3.5%-3.75% by December 2025, then paused as inflation pressures returned before hiking 25bps to 3.75%-4.0% earlier this month. In contrast, the RBA waited until February 2025 to start cutting and delivered just 75bps of easing, taking the cash rate from 4.35% to a low of 3.60% by August 2025. It's been hard work of late for local investors with higher interest rates and lower earnings growth:
Early weakness saw the ASX 200 make fresh 3-month lows on Thursday following a soft session on Wall Street. The banks and miners finally danced to the same tune, but unfortunately it was a bearish one, which caused ~90% of the day's decline, led by BHP Group (-1.7%), Westpac (-1.8%), and Commonwealth Bank (-0.7%).
The ASX 200 battled to a 0.1% gain on Wednesday, with BHP alone contributing about twice the index’s overall advance from a points perspective, masking underlying weakness in financials. At the stock and sector level, it was almost as if the market had tuned into yesterday’s MM webinar, “Investing in a 5% World,” with investors voting with their feet and compressing the valuations of long-duration growth stocks as bond yields remained elevated.
The ASX 200 experienced a choppy session on Tuesday before eventually closing up +0.3%, taking the index into positive territory for the week. The miners contributed more than 50% of the day's advance, but it was a relatively quiet affair considering the impressive gains in Europe and the US overnight. The tug of war at the pointy end of the market remains fairly evenly balanced, with investors only prepared to buy either the banks or miners on a day-to-day basis, appearing to use the other to fund the purchases.
The ASX 200 recovered well from an early 0.6% dip to close flat on Monday, with 45% of the main board managing to advance. Gains by the banks cancelled out losses by the miners, leaving the index evenly balanced into the close. Australian tech stocks, which are primarily software names, continued to underperform, falling 1.6% and extending their decline in 2026 to more than 25%. To put the disappointing performance into perspective, the US software sector is marginally higher for the year.
Last week saw the ASX 200 extend its September pullback to -3.8%, taking the total decline from August’s all-time high to almost -7%. The chart below highlights the uncanny similarities with 2022, when the RBA began aggressively tightening monetary policy, and Australia’s 10-year bond yield surged from around 1.5% to 4%, weighing on equity valuations. We’ve been watching with growing interest as the index continues to track the path of 2022’s “bond tantrum” remarkably closely - rising bond yields are the common denominator in both years.
The ASX 200 surprised many on the open yesterday, “gaping up” around 100 points above where it was “supposed” to open, leaving many scratching their heads, but as Shawn rightly pointed out, it's not the first and won't be the last example of market shenanigans on the expiry of the SPI Futures – particularly quarter end expiry. By the close, the local index still managed to finish +0.4% higher, aided by a more than +1% pop by US Futures in their late trade and an average +2% gain by the “Big Four” ASX banks.
The ASX 200 eked out a +0.3% gain ahead of the Fed's rate decision, primarily courtesy of a bounce by the miners, while CBA was the largest drag on the local index, slipping 0.6%. It was encouraging to see the selling pressure across the ASX subside, but with markets becoming increasingly hawkish, we feel investors require some “good news” before they take on more risk with global central banks set to start hiking as elevated oil prices continue to stoke inflation expectations.
The ASX 200 fell another 0.9% on Tuesday, extending September’s decline to 4.5% and pushing the index into negative territory for 2026. The local market has become something of the “ugly duckling” among its global peers, particularly compared with Japan’s Nikkei (+24%) and the US S&P 500 (+12%).
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