Portfolio Positioning: The RBA hikes, the Macquarie Conference kicks into gear before the Budget next week

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Alerts 06/05/2026 09:49

Trade Alert – Active Income Portfolio

We are making two changes to the Active Income Portfolio this morning.

Morning report 06/05/2026 09:20

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA hikes, the Macquarie Conference kicks into gear before the Budget next week

The ASX 200 retreated just 0.2% on Tuesday, not a bad day considering the RBA hiked another 0.25%, with the index encouragingly closing on its intra-day high. The local bourse has retreated 4.4% since Westpac (ASX:WBC) warned of rising bad debts and weaker trading revenues 3-weeks ago.

Afternoon report 05/05/2026 17:10

The Match Out: RBA hikes again but the ASX takes it on the chin

The ASX slipped again today, though the move felt relatively contained given the significance of the RBA decision. The central bank delivered a third straight hike, taking the cash rate to 4.35%, but the market largely took it in stride, rising ~35pts after the decision into the close.

Morning report 05/05/2026 09:26

What Matters Today: A Fresh Takeover Wave Hits the ASX — Who’s Next?

The ASX 200 retreated 0.4% ahead of this afternoons RBA rate decision, extending what has become one of the most sustained losing streaks of the year, nine declines in ten sessions, with the banks again at the centre of the weakness. National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB) was the standout drag; its soft quarterly result sent the stock down 1.6% and took approximately six points from the index.

Afternoon report 04/05/2026 16:59

The Match Out: Cautious ASX slips ahead of tomorrow’s RBA call

The ASX gave back some of Friday’s bounce today, drifting lower as softer local updates outweighed ongoing strength in US equities. Breadth was soft through the session with Staples and Financials leading the declines as the index whipsawed early in the session before cruising lower into the close.

Morning report 04/05/2026 09:26

Macro Monday: ASX Faces RBA Decision and Federal Budget in Critical Two-Week Window

The RBA is expected to lift rates by another 0.25% on Tuesday, taking the cash rate to 4.35%, fully reversing the 0.75% of easing delivered through 2025. Credit markets are also pricing in at least one, and potentially two, additional hikes over the next 12 months, leaving mortgage holders facing the highest borrowing costs in over a decade. It's no surprise that rate-sensitive sectors are under pressure—real estate and retail are down ~10% and ~14% respectively in 2026, while the ASX 200 has managed to eke out a modest gain.

Weekend report 02/05/2026 09:00

Weekend Q&A: ASX starts May on the front foot

The ASX200 ended its 8-day losing streak on Friday with a solid +0.7% advance, although it promised more early on before the “Big Four Banks” reversed lower. It felt worse, but come the closing bell on Friday, the index was only down 0.6% for the week, although compared to the strong gains in the US, it was a clear disappointment. It was the big end of town that reined in the market last week, with the banks and heavyweight miners retreating. Next Wednesday, we see the RBA step up on interest rates, with credit markets pricing in a ~74% probability of a 0.25% hike, while on the following Tuesday, we will receive the Federal Budget- there’s no rest for the wicked in May!

Afternoon report 01/05/2026 17:03

The Match Out: ASX bounces back as miners lead and supermarkets recover

The ASX finally found some buyers today, snapping its eight-day losing streak as risk appetite improved following record highs on Wall Street and a modest pullback in oil from Thursday’s spike. Materials did the heavy lifting, helped by gains in iron ore, while gold names also bounced after recent weakness.

Morning report 01/05/2026 09:06

ETF Friday: Four ASX ETFs to track the ongoing massive AI buildout

The ASX200 continued its losing streak for an eighth day on Thursday, as it waved goodbye to April, a month that promised so much but ultimately only closed up +2.2%, not a bad net result, but the last few sessions made it feel far worse. The song remained the same yesterday, as oil prices ground ever higher and the realities of a prolonged energy shock hit home for Woolworths (ASX:WOW) and other exposed businesses. Confidence is rapidly being eroded that the US-Iran conflict will be resolved any time soon, as boards start pointing fingers at the impact of the war for disappointing trading updates. Yesterday, it was Woolworths -7.8%, while South32 (ASX:S32) -5.4% focused more on Trump's tariffs.

Afternoon report 30/04/2026 17:42

The Match Out: Supermarkets under the pump as Woolworths leads the ASX lower

The ASX drifted lower again today, extending its losing streak to eight sessions as elevated oil prices and rising bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment. Brent crude pushed toward multi-year highs, keeping inflation concerns alive and lifting the Australian 10-year yield above 5% after a steady climb over the past two weeks.