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Morning report

Macro Monday: COVID threatens in Asia but markets remain ambivalent

The ASX200 endured some May wobbles last week falling almost 3% by Thursday afternoon, subscribers should remain conscious that the average decline for May & June combined over the last decade is -4.8% which by definition means at its worst the intra-month pullback would have been deeper e.g. last year we saw a -7.7% retracement even while the market was enjoying a phenomenal post COVID recovery.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Josh Frydenberg just hit the spend button!

Overnight we saw Treasurer Josh Frydenberg spend big in an effort to create another 250,000 jobs, there’s obviously no concerns around inflation or debt levels at this point in time. The booming mining sector has enabled the cash splash from revenue not envisaged by many a year ago when the pandemic dominated most conversations.
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Morning report

What Matters Today : Monitoring the resources boom

Yesterday saw the ASX200 surge to within touching distance of both its all-time high and the psychological 7200 area but this was not a typical 90-point rally because almost 30% of stocks closed down on the day.
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Morning report

Macro Monday : Keep watching bond yields & the $US

So far in May the ASX200 has maintained both Aprils underlying strength and its polarization of gains with the banks and resources powering ahead while growth stocks and in particular the IT Sector remaining under the proverbial pump.
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Morning report

What Matters Today : 3 local stocks we believe can fall 10-15%

The ASX200 marched ever higher on Wednesday closing less than 1.5% below its all-time high, the heavy lifting was performed by the big 3 of the local index - Commonwealth Bank (CBA), CSL Ltd (CSL) and BHP Group (BHP). Again, gains weren’t broad based with under 50% of the market closing positive but its hard to argue with “higher highs” even if the advance is relatively subdued from a momentum perspective.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA maintains its stock market support

The ASX200 continues to oscillate between 7000 and 7100 as ongoing stock & sector rotation maintains the market equilibrium – yesterday saw only 55% of the index rally but when the resources rally strongly plus CBA / CSL post gains the index is almost guaranteed to be well supported.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Can the banks keep charging ahead?

The ASX200 closed marginally higher yesterday as stock & sector rotation remained the main game in town, yesterday was all about the banks and although only 30% of the index closed positive enthusiastic bank buying was enough to keep the indexes head above water.
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MM’s preferred scenario is the ASX200 tests 6800 in May / June, and potentially lower
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IVV
MM’s preferred scenario is the S&P500 corrects back towards the 3850 area
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MM is targeting the 12,500 for the NASDAQ short-term
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MM remains bearish the Taiwanese index targeting another 10% downside
MM feels the next breakout in bonds is unlikely to follow through
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USD
MM is mildly bearish the $US ultimately looking for new lows ~88
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MM is neutral copper around the $US465/lb area
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MM is neutral iron ore at current levels
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MM remains bearish Bitcoin initially looking for another +15% downside
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MM remains bullish the VIX from sub 20
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MM is bullish bond yields medium-term

Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today : Diving deeper into the battered IT Sector

Yesterday saw the ASX200 fall another 52-points testing the psychological 7000 area in the early afternoon, the worm certainly hasn’t turned yet but there’s definitely some cracks forming in some global indices and local sectors.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Josh Frydenberg just hit the spend button!

Overnight we saw Treasurer Josh Frydenberg spend big in an effort to create another 250,000 jobs, there’s obviously no concerns around inflation or debt levels at this point in time. The booming mining sector has enabled the cash splash from revenue not envisaged by many a year ago when the pandemic dominated most conversations.

Morning report

What Matters Today : Monitoring the resources boom

Yesterday saw the ASX200 surge to within touching distance of both its all-time high and the psychological 7200 area but this was not a typical 90-point rally because almost 30% of stocks closed down on the day.

Morning report

Macro Monday : Keep watching bond yields & the $US

So far in May the ASX200 has maintained both Aprils underlying strength and its polarization of gains with the banks and resources powering ahead while growth stocks and in particular the IT Sector remaining under the proverbial pump.

Morning report

What Matters Today : 3 local stocks we believe can fall 10-15%

The ASX200 marched ever higher on Wednesday closing less than 1.5% below its all-time high, the heavy lifting was performed by the big 3 of the local index - Commonwealth Bank (CBA), CSL Ltd (CSL) and BHP Group (BHP). Again, gains weren’t broad based with under 50% of the market closing positive but its hard to argue with “higher highs” even if the advance is relatively subdued from a momentum perspective.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA maintains its stock market support

The ASX200 continues to oscillate between 7000 and 7100 as ongoing stock & sector rotation maintains the market equilibrium – yesterday saw only 55% of the index rally but when the resources rally strongly plus CBA / CSL post gains the index is almost guaranteed to be well supported.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Can the banks keep charging ahead?

The ASX200 closed marginally higher yesterday as stock & sector rotation remained the main game in town, yesterday was all about the banks and although only 30% of the index closed positive enthusiastic bank buying was enough to keep the indexes head above water.

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