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Morning report

Macro Monday: Can stocks continue to ignore COVID?

The ASX200 continues to trade sideways in the face of a deteriorating COVID picture although it hasn’t actually been going anywhere since early June, well before the current Delta wave raised its head on our fair shores. Sydney registered its first case of this outbreak only 30-days ago on the 16th of June, it already feels a lot longer in the Gerrish household! As the the State and Federal Governments again dig deep to support individuals and businesses unable to work due to lockdowns optimism towards the speed of the economic recovery has waned but on the stock market level it’s only produced some rotation between sectors as opposed to core market selling.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: 3 stocks we’re adding to our Hitlist

The ASX200 slipped lower yesterday, as we come into Friday “the song remains the same” with the local market very happy to simply rotate around the 7300 area whatever the macro / market news that crosses our screens. In what was a quiet session during an even quieter few weeks for stocks a few points did catch my attention:
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Will the BNPL stocks follow the lithium path?

The ASX200 enjoyed a solid Wednesday in the face of some negative leads as US stocks drifted lower and the local BNPL space was clobbered courtesy of Apple (AAPL US) – more on this later. Under the hood we saw ongoing mean reversion with the likes of Crown (CWN) and HUB24 Ltd (HUB), who both reside in the MM Flagship Growth Portfolio bounce strongly after struggling over the last few weeks i.e. pretty much a continuance of the trend across recent months.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: China looks set to reverse the performance dial

The ASX200 again succumb to the almost magnetic pull of the 7300 level, the index has been rotating around this area within +/- 100-points for over a month but from my perspective it feels even longer! Yesterday saw the market forgo early strong gains to close basically unchanged with the Banking, Energy and Real Estate Sectors weighing on the ASX but the selling was very restrained with only 1 stock falling by over 3% i.e. no change, there are buyers of weakness and sellers of strength but neither appears particularly committed to their cause.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Has China lit the fuse for more global stimulus?

Stocks kicked off the week on a very positive footing following the strong gains in Europe and the US on Friday but it was the sterling performance from the large cap miners that caught my attention e.g. BHP Group (BHP) and Fortescue Metals (FMG) both closed up over +3%. MM has been looking for some weakness in the Resources Sector to increase our exposure but its currently proving to be a long wait!
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Will the Delta Strain ultimately rattle stocks?

The ASX200 continues to bounce around between 7200 and 7400 which considering the economic and social backdrop is an impressive performance in my opinion. The local index has rallied ~28% over the last 9-months yet the very real prospect of a damaging extended lockdown in NSW is being shrugged off by stocks, although both bond and currency markets are taking more notice:
Read more
Morning report

What Matters Today: Time to focus as the “Reflation Trade” wobbles

Yesterday saw stocks rally strongly early in the morning only to steadily decline from their mid-morning high as the value stocks reversed early gains to close down on the day – primarily the banks but the resources did close well below their intra-day highs. The bottom line is equities appear to becoming rattled by the worsening COVID picture both locally and overseas and whatever the path that the delta strain and others take - some important market points should be remembered:
Read more
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is the re-emergence of COVID going to slow down the Retailers?

Yesterday saw the local market rally +0.9% more than recovering the losses on Tuesday, the growth names led the line following US indices overnight who embraced the drift in US bond yields i.e. Tech & Healthcare. The stock and sector rotation continues while the ASX200 remains basically unchanged since the start of June, below are some of the names catching our eye for both good and bad reasons:
Read more
Morning report

What Matters Today: Depressed earnings & share price but good assets = gold!

Monday morning should have reminded us all that M&A is alive and well in 2021 as an infrastructure consortium bid $22.6bn for the embattled Sydney Airports (SYD), the 42% premium to Fridays close would have sent a sigh of relief through much of the local investment community who have been major supporters of this classic “yield play” stock since the GFC.
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MM remains happy buyer of weakness over the coming weeks with an ideal target for the index ~7,000
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MM is a buyer of bond yields into current weakness
MM’s ideal upside target for a pullback by the Russell 3000 is the ~2400 area
MM is now bullish China facing stocks
MM is neutral the reflation trade short-term
MM is looking to buy US bond yields into current weakness
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USD
MM’s upside target for the $US is in the 93 and 94 area
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MM is currently neutral the $A
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MM is looking for a catalyst to increase our exposure to the Oil Sector
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MM is neutral copper at this point in time but again we’re looking for a catalyst to buy
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MM is now net bullish Bitcoin
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MM remains bullish volatility from current levels
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MM likes the US Banks ~7% lower

Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: 3 stocks we’re adding to our Hitlist

The ASX200 slipped lower yesterday, as we come into Friday “the song remains the same” with the local market very happy to simply rotate around the 7300 area whatever the macro / market news that crosses our screens. In what was a quiet session during an even quieter few weeks for stocks a few points did catch my attention:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Will the BNPL stocks follow the lithium path?

The ASX200 enjoyed a solid Wednesday in the face of some negative leads as US stocks drifted lower and the local BNPL space was clobbered courtesy of Apple (AAPL US) – more on this later. Under the hood we saw ongoing mean reversion with the likes of Crown (CWN) and HUB24 Ltd (HUB), who both reside in the MM Flagship Growth Portfolio bounce strongly after struggling over the last few weeks i.e. pretty much a continuance of the trend across recent months.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: China looks set to reverse the performance dial

The ASX200 again succumb to the almost magnetic pull of the 7300 level, the index has been rotating around this area within +/- 100-points for over a month but from my perspective it feels even longer! Yesterday saw the market forgo early strong gains to close basically unchanged with the Banking, Energy and Real Estate Sectors weighing on the ASX but the selling was very restrained with only 1 stock falling by over 3% i.e. no change, there are buyers of weakness and sellers of strength but neither appears particularly committed to their cause.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Has China lit the fuse for more global stimulus?

Stocks kicked off the week on a very positive footing following the strong gains in Europe and the US on Friday but it was the sterling performance from the large cap miners that caught my attention e.g. BHP Group (BHP) and Fortescue Metals (FMG) both closed up over +3%. MM has been looking for some weakness in the Resources Sector to increase our exposure but its currently proving to be a long wait!

Morning report

Macro Monday: Will the Delta Strain ultimately rattle stocks?

The ASX200 continues to bounce around between 7200 and 7400 which considering the economic and social backdrop is an impressive performance in my opinion. The local index has rallied ~28% over the last 9-months yet the very real prospect of a damaging extended lockdown in NSW is being shrugged off by stocks, although both bond and currency markets are taking more notice:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Time to focus as the “Reflation Trade” wobbles

Yesterday saw stocks rally strongly early in the morning only to steadily decline from their mid-morning high as the value stocks reversed early gains to close down on the day – primarily the banks but the resources did close well below their intra-day highs. The bottom line is equities appear to becoming rattled by the worsening COVID picture both locally and overseas and whatever the path that the delta strain and others take - some important market points should be remembered:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Is the re-emergence of COVID going to slow down the Retailers?

Yesterday saw the local market rally +0.9% more than recovering the losses on Tuesday, the growth names led the line following US indices overnight who embraced the drift in US bond yields i.e. Tech & Healthcare. The stock and sector rotation continues while the ASX200 remains basically unchanged since the start of June, below are some of the names catching our eye for both good and bad reasons:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Depressed earnings & share price but good assets = gold!

Monday morning should have reminded us all that M&A is alive and well in 2021 as an infrastructure consortium bid $22.6bn for the embattled Sydney Airports (SYD), the 42% premium to Fridays close would have sent a sigh of relief through much of the local investment community who have been major supporters of this classic “yield play” stock since the GFC.

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