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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Markets still dance to the $US

The ASX200 bounced strongly yesterday gaining +0.6% as the choppy rotation continues, Tuesday was all about the resources from energy to gold and of course iron ore which continues to swing around with almost as much volatility as Bitcoin!
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Morning report

Macro Monday: COVID threatens in Asia but markets remain ambivalent

The ASX200 endured some May wobbles last week falling almost 3% by Thursday afternoon, subscribers should remain conscious that the average decline for May & June combined over the last decade is -4.8% which by definition means at its worst the intra-month pullback would have been deeper e.g. last year we saw a -7.7% retracement even while the market was enjoying a phenomenal post COVID recovery.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Josh Frydenberg just hit the spend button!

Overnight we saw Treasurer Josh Frydenberg spend big in an effort to create another 250,000 jobs, there’s obviously no concerns around inflation or debt levels at this point in time. The booming mining sector has enabled the cash splash from revenue not envisaged by many a year ago when the pandemic dominated most conversations.
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Morning report

What Matters Today : Monitoring the resources boom

Yesterday saw the ASX200 surge to within touching distance of both its all-time high and the psychological 7200 area but this was not a typical 90-point rally because almost 30% of stocks closed down on the day.
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Morning report

Macro Monday : Keep watching bond yields & the $US

So far in May the ASX200 has maintained both Aprils underlying strength and its polarization of gains with the banks and resources powering ahead while growth stocks and in particular the IT Sector remaining under the proverbial pump.
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Morning report

What Matters Today : 3 local stocks we believe can fall 10-15%

The ASX200 marched ever higher on Wednesday closing less than 1.5% below its all-time high, the heavy lifting was performed by the big 3 of the local index - Commonwealth Bank (CBA), CSL Ltd (CSL) and BHP Group (BHP). Again, gains weren’t broad based with under 50% of the market closing positive but its hard to argue with “higher highs” even if the advance is relatively subdued from a momentum perspective.
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MM remains very cautious towards stocks at current levels
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OZL
MM is neutral OZL short-term
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JHX
MM likes JHX around $35
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MM is now only mildly bearish Bitcoin
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MM is looking to buy bullish US bond yield exposure ~1.3%
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USD
MM is looking to tweak portfolios if / when the $US breaks below the 89 level
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MM remains bullish volatility at current levels
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IVV
MM’s short-term target for the S&P500 is ~3850
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MM is now neutral to negative European stocks
NCM
MM is considering selling NCM into strength if / when the $US tests fresh 2021 lows
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CBA
MM is becoming more of conscious of CBA’s relative valuation versus peers
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MM likes NFLX around 10% lower
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MM is looking to take profit on our ETPMAG position ~38
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Latest Reports

Morning report

Macro Monday: COVID threatens in Asia but markets remain ambivalent

The ASX200 endured some May wobbles last week falling almost 3% by Thursday afternoon, subscribers should remain conscious that the average decline for May & June combined over the last decade is -4.8% which by definition means at its worst the intra-month pullback would have been deeper e.g. last year we saw a -7.7% retracement even while the market was enjoying a phenomenal post COVID recovery.

Morning report

What Matters Today : Diving deeper into the battered IT Sector

Yesterday saw the ASX200 fall another 52-points testing the psychological 7000 area in the early afternoon, the worm certainly hasn’t turned yet but there’s definitely some cracks forming in some global indices and local sectors.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Josh Frydenberg just hit the spend button!

Overnight we saw Treasurer Josh Frydenberg spend big in an effort to create another 250,000 jobs, there’s obviously no concerns around inflation or debt levels at this point in time. The booming mining sector has enabled the cash splash from revenue not envisaged by many a year ago when the pandemic dominated most conversations.

Morning report

What Matters Today : Monitoring the resources boom

Yesterday saw the ASX200 surge to within touching distance of both its all-time high and the psychological 7200 area but this was not a typical 90-point rally because almost 30% of stocks closed down on the day.

Morning report

Macro Monday : Keep watching bond yields & the $US

So far in May the ASX200 has maintained both Aprils underlying strength and its polarization of gains with the banks and resources powering ahead while growth stocks and in particular the IT Sector remaining under the proverbial pump.

Morning report

What Matters Today : 3 local stocks we believe can fall 10-15%

The ASX200 marched ever higher on Wednesday closing less than 1.5% below its all-time high, the heavy lifting was performed by the big 3 of the local index - Commonwealth Bank (CBA), CSL Ltd (CSL) and BHP Group (BHP). Again, gains weren’t broad based with under 50% of the market closing positive but its hard to argue with “higher highs” even if the advance is relatively subdued from a momentum perspective.

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