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Morning report

Macro Monday: It feels like stocks v the “Delta strain” as we kick off August

The ASX200 waved goodbye to July in lacklustre fashion on Friday, the first month of FY21/22 only managed to travel a meagre 79-pints / 1.1% to ultimately close down just 2-points, it felt like a quiet choppy almost “nothing like” month and ultimately that’s exactly what it was on the index level although there were a view interestingly developments unfolding beneath the hood:
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Morning report

What Matters Today: As COVID scares investors is there safety in food stocks?

The ASX200 performed another 180 degree pirouette yesterday, one which was almost good enough for the Tokyo Games! The market continues to remind me of a washing machine spinning stocks and sectors in almost random direction with the underlying upside bias the only constant. The Tech stocks were best on ground yesterday after struggling on Wednesday, every stock in the sector...
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Is iron ore creating a “peak performance” scenario for RIO, BHP etc

The ASX200 struggled yesterday in the face of broad based selling which ended with 70% of stocks closing lower by the end of the session. On the sector level the unusual combination of IT & Energy stocks bore the brunt of the selling although the big 3 of CBA, CSL and BHP falling an average of -1.3% had the largest impact on the underlying index. If recent history repeats itself we will be making fresh all-time highs by the start of August but Wednesdays weakness...
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: China swings the “Big Brother” stick.

The ASX200 powered to fresh all-time highs yesterday even while China regulators hammered certain pockets of the market and the COVID numbers out of Sydney continue to worsen by the day. Overnight the Australian Financial Review (AFR) was flagging another month of lockdown for Sydney but equities are just shrugging off the speculation as old news. More stocks actually fell on Tuesday but when heavyweights Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and BHP Group (BHP) rally strongly...
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Are Australian education stocks going to follow China’s lower?

The ASX200 closed unchanged on Monday after registering new all-time highs early in the morning only to drift lower throughout the day to ultimately close around the day’s low with almost 60% of stocks closing in the red. Volumes were reasonably low as the local market followed Asian indices and US futures down throughout the session but with no sector moving...
Read more
Morning report

Macro Monday: “Backwardation” illustrates confidence is mixed but not stocks!

The ASX200 is poised to make fresh all-time highs this morning with good old fashioned corporate performance dictating the markets trend as opposed to short-term panic around COVID-19 and the subsequent deteriorating sentiment towards the global economic recovery. When we stand back and look at the local market since this impressive post GFC bull market started way back in March 2009 the rally by equities has been steady with a few interesting characteristics catching our eye:
Read more
Morning report

What Matters Today: Should MM follow Tesla (TSLA US) into nickel?

This weeks summed up perfectly both June & July for the ASX200, we kicked-off on Monday with one of the worst days in months leading to a test of 7200 on Tuesday morning, but by the close on Thursday these losses were well and truly in the rear view mirror as local stocks closed within only 0.3% of their all-time high, buy the dips is clearly still the winning formula.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The ASX holds support for a 3rd time

The ASX200 again managed to hold onto its 7200 support in admirable fashion yesterday even in the face of a 725-point plunge by the Dow, the markets “buy the dips” attitude is undoubtedly working for now. However while MM is part of this core view that the bull market is alive and well our preferred scenario is we get a short sharp washout down ~4% to catch out the complacent traders / buyers because...
Read more
Morning report

What Matters Today: 5 stocks / positions MM is honing in on as volatility escalates

The ASX200 endured a tough start to this week finally closing down 62-points although it was a fair bit worse mid-morning with the index nudging the psychological negative 100-points level at its worst. Losses were relatively broad based with 76% of stocks closing in the red but it was still encouraging to see the market grind higher after its initial savage sell off. A few points caught my attention which dovetails nicely with how MM sees equities through July and August:
Read more
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MM remains a buyer of weakness across most stock market sectors
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MM is a bullish of bond yields into their current weakness
MM is looking to skew portfolios towards rising US bond yields into current weakness
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IVV
MM’s is a keen buyer of the S&P500 ~8% lower
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MM is neutral the Hang Seng at current levels
MM is looking to increase our exposure to resources moving forward
MM believes copper’s getting it right and reflation is the next economic chapter
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MM is targeting ~$$US80/barrel for oil
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USD
MM’s is targeting a break of 89 medium-term
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MM is now neutral Bitcoin
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MM remains bullish volatility from current levels
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MM is bullish the Pound targeting the 1.45 area

Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: As COVID scares investors is there safety in food stocks?

The ASX200 performed another 180 degree pirouette yesterday, one which was almost good enough for the Tokyo Games! The market continues to remind me of a washing machine spinning stocks and sectors in almost random direction with the underlying upside bias the only constant. The Tech stocks were best on ground yesterday after struggling on Wednesday, every stock in the sector...

Morning report

What Matters Today: Is iron ore creating a “peak performance” scenario for RIO, BHP etc

The ASX200 struggled yesterday in the face of broad based selling which ended with 70% of stocks closing lower by the end of the session. On the sector level the unusual combination of IT & Energy stocks bore the brunt of the selling although the big 3 of CBA, CSL and BHP falling an average of -1.3% had the largest impact on the underlying index. If recent history repeats itself we will be making fresh all-time highs by the start of August but Wednesdays weakness...

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: China swings the “Big Brother” stick.

The ASX200 powered to fresh all-time highs yesterday even while China regulators hammered certain pockets of the market and the COVID numbers out of Sydney continue to worsen by the day. Overnight the Australian Financial Review (AFR) was flagging another month of lockdown for Sydney but equities are just shrugging off the speculation as old news. More stocks actually fell on Tuesday but when heavyweights Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and BHP Group (BHP) rally strongly...

Morning report

What Matters Today: Are Australian education stocks going to follow China’s lower?

The ASX200 closed unchanged on Monday after registering new all-time highs early in the morning only to drift lower throughout the day to ultimately close around the day’s low with almost 60% of stocks closing in the red. Volumes were reasonably low as the local market followed Asian indices and US futures down throughout the session but with no sector moving...

Morning report

Macro Monday: “Backwardation” illustrates confidence is mixed but not stocks!

The ASX200 is poised to make fresh all-time highs this morning with good old fashioned corporate performance dictating the markets trend as opposed to short-term panic around COVID-19 and the subsequent deteriorating sentiment towards the global economic recovery. When we stand back and look at the local market since this impressive post GFC bull market started way back in March 2009 the rally by equities has been steady with a few interesting characteristics catching our eye:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Should MM follow Tesla (TSLA US) into nickel?

This weeks summed up perfectly both June & July for the ASX200, we kicked-off on Monday with one of the worst days in months leading to a test of 7200 on Tuesday morning, but by the close on Thursday these losses were well and truly in the rear view mirror as local stocks closed within only 0.3% of their all-time high, buy the dips is clearly still the winning formula.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The ASX holds support for a 3rd time

The ASX200 again managed to hold onto its 7200 support in admirable fashion yesterday even in the face of a 725-point plunge by the Dow, the markets “buy the dips” attitude is undoubtedly working for now. However while MM is part of this core view that the bull market is alive and well our preferred scenario is we get a short sharp washout down ~4% to catch out the complacent traders / buyers because...

Morning report

What Matters Today: 5 stocks / positions MM is honing in on as volatility escalates

The ASX200 endured a tough start to this week finally closing down 62-points although it was a fair bit worse mid-morning with the index nudging the psychological negative 100-points level at its worst. Losses were relatively broad based with 76% of stocks closing in the red but it was still encouraging to see the market grind higher after its initial savage sell off. A few points caught my attention which dovetails nicely with how MM sees equities through July and August:

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