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Morning report

What Matters Today: Has China lit the fuse for more global stimulus?

Stocks kicked off the week on a very positive footing following the strong gains in Europe and the US on Friday but it was the sterling performance from the large cap miners that caught my attention e.g. BHP Group (BHP) and Fortescue Metals (FMG) both closed up over +3%. MM has been looking for some weakness in the Resources Sector to increase our exposure but its currently proving to be a long wait!
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Will the Delta Strain ultimately rattle stocks?

The ASX200 continues to bounce around between 7200 and 7400 which considering the economic and social backdrop is an impressive performance in my opinion. The local index has rallied ~28% over the last 9-months yet the very real prospect of a damaging extended lockdown in NSW is being shrugged off by stocks, although both bond and currency markets are taking more notice:
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Time to focus as the “Reflation Trade” wobbles

Yesterday saw stocks rally strongly early in the morning only to steadily decline from their mid-morning high as the value stocks reversed early gains to close down on the day – primarily the banks but the resources did close well below their intra-day highs. The bottom line is equities appear to becoming rattled by the worsening COVID picture both locally and overseas and whatever the path that the delta strain and others take - some important market points should be remembered:
Read more
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is the re-emergence of COVID going to slow down the Retailers?

Yesterday saw the local market rally +0.9% more than recovering the losses on Tuesday, the growth names led the line following US indices overnight who embraced the drift in US bond yields i.e. Tech & Healthcare. The stock and sector rotation continues while the ASX200 remains basically unchanged since the start of June, below are some of the names catching our eye for both good and bad reasons:
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Depressed earnings & share price but good assets = gold!

Monday morning should have reminded us all that M&A is alive and well in 2021 as an infrastructure consortium bid $22.6bn for the embattled Sydney Airports (SYD), the 42% premium to Fridays close would have sent a sigh of relief through much of the local investment community who have been major supporters of this classic “yield play” stock since the GFC.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Are gold stocks starting to turn?

It already feels like a long week and its only Friday morning, the combination of being in lockdown and EOFY has been exhausting, the market itself is only down -0.6% so it’s certainly not any wild gyrations in stocks draining our energy levels.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Does MM see any value in the ASX200’s worst stocks of the last financial year?

A new financial year is upon us and if its only half as good as FY20/21’s it will still be well above the average performance of recent decades but with the tailwind of huge fiscal and monetary stimulus diminishing fast MM believes the next year is likely to be very different to the last one. Already in 2021 we’ve seen a noticeable migration back towards the value sector and in particular the banks which has helped the ASX200 rally +11% since January 1st i.e. the average gain of the “Big Four” banks has been +23.7% as they’ve embraced the prospect of higher bond yields.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The “shenanigans hour” approaches.

The ASX200 fell early yesterday only to recover virtually all of the losses after midday to close down just 0.1% - how many times have we written that in the last 12-months! Almost 50% of the Australian population being thrown back into a COVID lockdown has been taken in its stride by the local market illustrating the inherent buying into any weakness.
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MM remains a very keen buyer of stocks into decent pullbacks
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BHP
MM anticipates BHP to continue trading in the $45-55 area through 2021
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LLC
MM remains long and cautiously bullish LLC
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NSR
MM likes NSR from a risk / reward perspective
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MM remains a keen buyer of US stocks into any meaningful weakness
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MM is bullish the US VIX from a risk / reward perspective
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FMG
On balance MM now anticipates fresh all-time highs from the likes of FMG
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MM is still looking for a catalyst to buy bond yields
CTD
MM likes CTD around 10% lower
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SGR
MM likes SGR below $3.50
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EVT
MM likes EVT around $11
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Latest Reports

Morning report

Macro Monday: Will the Delta Strain ultimately rattle stocks?

The ASX200 continues to bounce around between 7200 and 7400 which considering the economic and social backdrop is an impressive performance in my opinion. The local index has rallied ~28% over the last 9-months yet the very real prospect of a damaging extended lockdown in NSW is being shrugged off by stocks, although both bond and currency markets are taking more notice:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Time to focus as the “Reflation Trade” wobbles

Yesterday saw stocks rally strongly early in the morning only to steadily decline from their mid-morning high as the value stocks reversed early gains to close down on the day – primarily the banks but the resources did close well below their intra-day highs. The bottom line is equities appear to becoming rattled by the worsening COVID picture both locally and overseas and whatever the path that the delta strain and others take - some important market points should be remembered:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Is the re-emergence of COVID going to slow down the Retailers?

Yesterday saw the local market rally +0.9% more than recovering the losses on Tuesday, the growth names led the line following US indices overnight who embraced the drift in US bond yields i.e. Tech & Healthcare. The stock and sector rotation continues while the ASX200 remains basically unchanged since the start of June, below are some of the names catching our eye for both good and bad reasons:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Depressed earnings & share price but good assets = gold!

Monday morning should have reminded us all that M&A is alive and well in 2021 as an infrastructure consortium bid $22.6bn for the embattled Sydney Airports (SYD), the 42% premium to Fridays close would have sent a sigh of relief through much of the local investment community who have been major supporters of this classic “yield play” stock since the GFC.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Are gold stocks starting to turn?

It already feels like a long week and its only Friday morning, the combination of being in lockdown and EOFY has been exhausting, the market itself is only down -0.6% so it’s certainly not any wild gyrations in stocks draining our energy levels.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Does MM see any value in the ASX200’s worst stocks of the last financial year?

A new financial year is upon us and if its only half as good as FY20/21’s it will still be well above the average performance of recent decades but with the tailwind of huge fiscal and monetary stimulus diminishing fast MM believes the next year is likely to be very different to the last one. Already in 2021 we’ve seen a noticeable migration back towards the value sector and in particular the banks which has helped the ASX200 rally +11% since January 1st i.e. the average gain of the “Big Four” banks has been +23.7% as they’ve embraced the prospect of higher bond yields.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The “shenanigans hour” approaches.

The ASX200 fell early yesterday only to recover virtually all of the losses after midday to close down just 0.1% - how many times have we written that in the last 12-months! Almost 50% of the Australian population being thrown back into a COVID lockdown has been taken in its stride by the local market illustrating the inherent buying into any weakness.

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