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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: China looks set to reverse the performance dial

The ASX200 again succumb to the almost magnetic pull of the 7300 level, the index has been rotating around this area within +/- 100-points for over a month but from my perspective it feels even longer! Yesterday saw the market forgo early strong gains to close basically unchanged with the Banking, Energy and Real Estate Sectors weighing on the ASX but the selling was very restrained with only 1 stock falling by over 3% i.e. no change, there are buyers of weakness and sellers of strength but neither appears particularly committed to their cause.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Has China lit the fuse for more global stimulus?

Stocks kicked off the week on a very positive footing following the strong gains in Europe and the US on Friday but it was the sterling performance from the large cap miners that caught my attention e.g. BHP Group (BHP) and Fortescue Metals (FMG) both closed up over +3%. MM has been looking for some weakness in the Resources Sector to increase our exposure but its currently proving to be a long wait!
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Will the Delta Strain ultimately rattle stocks?

The ASX200 continues to bounce around between 7200 and 7400 which considering the economic and social backdrop is an impressive performance in my opinion. The local index has rallied ~28% over the last 9-months yet the very real prospect of a damaging extended lockdown in NSW is being shrugged off by stocks, although both bond and currency markets are taking more notice:
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Time to focus as the “Reflation Trade” wobbles

Yesterday saw stocks rally strongly early in the morning only to steadily decline from their mid-morning high as the value stocks reversed early gains to close down on the day – primarily the banks but the resources did close well below their intra-day highs. The bottom line is equities appear to becoming rattled by the worsening COVID picture both locally and overseas and whatever the path that the delta strain and others take - some important market points should be remembered:
Read more
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is the re-emergence of COVID going to slow down the Retailers?

Yesterday saw the local market rally +0.9% more than recovering the losses on Tuesday, the growth names led the line following US indices overnight who embraced the drift in US bond yields i.e. Tech & Healthcare. The stock and sector rotation continues while the ASX200 remains basically unchanged since the start of June, below are some of the names catching our eye for both good and bad reasons:
Read more
Morning report

What Matters Today: Depressed earnings & share price but good assets = gold!

Monday morning should have reminded us all that M&A is alive and well in 2021 as an infrastructure consortium bid $22.6bn for the embattled Sydney Airports (SYD), the 42% premium to Fridays close would have sent a sigh of relief through much of the local investment community who have been major supporters of this classic “yield play” stock since the GFC.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Are gold stocks starting to turn?

It already feels like a long week and its only Friday morning, the combination of being in lockdown and EOFY has been exhausting, the market itself is only down -0.6% so it’s certainly not any wild gyrations in stocks draining our energy levels.
Read more
Morning report

What Matters Today: Does MM see any value in the ASX200’s worst stocks of the last financial year?

A new financial year is upon us and if its only half as good as FY20/21’s it will still be well above the average performance of recent decades but with the tailwind of huge fiscal and monetary stimulus diminishing fast MM believes the next year is likely to be very different to the last one. Already in 2021 we’ve seen a noticeable migration back towards the value sector and in particular the banks which has helped the ASX200 rally +11% since January 1st i.e. the average gain of the “Big Four” banks has been +23.7% as they’ve embraced the prospect of higher bond yields.
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MM remains a keen buyer of market dips with the 7000 area the first technical support area
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MM believes the Australian bond yields are close to a point of inflection
MM is looking for triggers to accumulate US bond yields / sell bonds
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MM is bullish commodities medium-term
USD
MM is looking for more upside from the $US
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MM is looking for more downside by the $A
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IVV
MM’s ideal short-term pullback target for the S&P500 is now ~4,000
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MM is bullish China facing indices
OZL
MM is a keen buyer of OZL ~$20
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MM remains comfortable with the Crown Hybrid (CWNHB)
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Has China lit the fuse for more global stimulus?

Stocks kicked off the week on a very positive footing following the strong gains in Europe and the US on Friday but it was the sterling performance from the large cap miners that caught my attention e.g. BHP Group (BHP) and Fortescue Metals (FMG) both closed up over +3%. MM has been looking for some weakness in the Resources Sector to increase our exposure but its currently proving to be a long wait!

Morning report

Macro Monday: Will the Delta Strain ultimately rattle stocks?

The ASX200 continues to bounce around between 7200 and 7400 which considering the economic and social backdrop is an impressive performance in my opinion. The local index has rallied ~28% over the last 9-months yet the very real prospect of a damaging extended lockdown in NSW is being shrugged off by stocks, although both bond and currency markets are taking more notice:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Time to focus as the “Reflation Trade” wobbles

Yesterday saw stocks rally strongly early in the morning only to steadily decline from their mid-morning high as the value stocks reversed early gains to close down on the day – primarily the banks but the resources did close well below their intra-day highs. The bottom line is equities appear to becoming rattled by the worsening COVID picture both locally and overseas and whatever the path that the delta strain and others take - some important market points should be remembered:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Is the re-emergence of COVID going to slow down the Retailers?

Yesterday saw the local market rally +0.9% more than recovering the losses on Tuesday, the growth names led the line following US indices overnight who embraced the drift in US bond yields i.e. Tech & Healthcare. The stock and sector rotation continues while the ASX200 remains basically unchanged since the start of June, below are some of the names catching our eye for both good and bad reasons:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Depressed earnings & share price but good assets = gold!

Monday morning should have reminded us all that M&A is alive and well in 2021 as an infrastructure consortium bid $22.6bn for the embattled Sydney Airports (SYD), the 42% premium to Fridays close would have sent a sigh of relief through much of the local investment community who have been major supporters of this classic “yield play” stock since the GFC.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Are gold stocks starting to turn?

It already feels like a long week and its only Friday morning, the combination of being in lockdown and EOFY has been exhausting, the market itself is only down -0.6% so it’s certainly not any wild gyrations in stocks draining our energy levels.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Does MM see any value in the ASX200’s worst stocks of the last financial year?

A new financial year is upon us and if its only half as good as FY20/21’s it will still be well above the average performance of recent decades but with the tailwind of huge fiscal and monetary stimulus diminishing fast MM believes the next year is likely to be very different to the last one. Already in 2021 we’ve seen a noticeable migration back towards the value sector and in particular the banks which has helped the ASX200 rally +11% since January 1st i.e. the average gain of the “Big Four” banks has been +23.7% as they’ve embraced the prospect of higher bond yields.

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