What Matters Today: China’s not following Facebook, it’s still tightening the screws

The ASX200 enjoyed a strong bounce on Thursday but after 4-days of choppy trading the market remains in a tight consolidation around 6800. As we all know bond markets are playing the tune for equities in 2021 so far and this week’s seen the Australian 10-year bond yield surge form 1.43% to 1.74%, that’s a whopping +22% increase in yields in just a few days compounding the more than +75% increase in less than 2-months, its not hard to see why investors are becoming fixated with the global economic recovery i.e. reflation. We only have to look under-the-hood of the ASX at some major stocks to see how its significantly transforming the stock / sector performance so far in 2021:

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Afternoon report 16/07/2025 16:51

The Match Out: ASX down, weakest session since early May

The ASX had its worst day since 5th May today, which implies we’ve had a pretty good run in stocks despite ongoing trade uncertainty. The market was hit on the open, with all sectors trading in the red before recent trends emerged; banks experiencing ongoing selling while resources bounced from their intra-day nadir.

Morning report 16/07/2025 09:52

Portfolio Positioning: Fed rate cut bets wane, even after a soft CPI

The ASX200 surged +0.7% on Tuesday following broad-based gains, which saw 70% of the mainboard close higher. The index posted a fresh record closing high for the second time in a fortnight, ignoring plenty of negative news along the way. Ironically, the only sector which slipped on the day was the materials even after China reported better-than-expected quarterly economic growth, although we wouldn't be surprised to see this translate to some buying in the miners into August.

Afternoon report 15/07/2025 17:04

The Match Out: ASX closes at a new high, HUB24 (HUB) reports strong flows

A new all-time closing high for the ASX today, with the index pushing comfortably above 8600 driven by broad based buying with 75% of the main board closing higher – only one sector failed the make gains.

Morning report 15/07/2025 12:37

What Matters Today: Should we follow the US Govt into Rare Earths?

The ASX200 closed down 0.1% on Monday, which was another solid performance considering overseas indices were weak on Friday night, and the S&P 500 futures fell further during our day session after the Trade War gathered momentum over the weekend. In typical bullish fashion, the index opened around its daily low, grinding higher as BHP and the materials sector offset losses in the financials; CBA and Westpac combined to take over 6 points off the index, which was almost perfectly offset by a +0.9% gain by BHP Group (BHP). The market may feel tired around the 8600 level, but it continues to frustrate the bears as stock and sector rotation remain the main game in town.

Afternoon report 14/07/2025 17:15

The Match Out: Banks drag ASX lower, tech stocks take hit on U.S Open Banking shake-up

Energy & Resources led the charge today with BHP back knocking on the door of $40, and is now up more than 8% in FY26 relative to Comm Bank (CBA) which has fallen ~3%.

Morning report 14/07/2025 09:35

Macro Monday: Markets brace for renewed tariff ructions

Stocks have shown increasing complacency to US tariff threats, and they will face another test this morning after President Donald Trump declared a 30% rate for the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1st. He said Mexico had failed to do enough to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US and complained that the EU’s trade deficit with the US was unfair, almost ~$US150bn last year, as can be seen below.

Weekend report 12/07/2025 09:38

Weekend Q&A: Tariffs are back, but equities are still flaunting new highs

The ASX200 slipped 0.3% last week after dancing around the psychological 8600 level almost daily. While the index traded in a tight range, it was a very different story on the stock and sector level, with utilities surging +3.4% while real estate fell -3.2%, two theoretically rate-sensitive sectors moving in opposite directions. However, most of the action unfolded in the resources with a strong advance by iron ore in the back end of the week, helping heavyweight BHP Group (BHP) bounce over $2 to test its March high.

Afternoon report 11/07/2025 17:12

The Match Out: ASX dips, Rare Earth stocks roar, as U.S Govt buys in

The ASX 200 once again knocked its head on the 8600 level today, with a strong open sold into as US Futures tracked lower during our time zone after news emerged of a potential 35% tariff on imports from Canada to the US.

Morning report 11/07/2025 09:07

ETF Friday: Looking to small-cap ETFs for another leg higher in stocks

The ASX 200 closed up +0.6% on Thursday, a further 0.6% gain today, and it will post a fresh intra-day high. The rotation on the stock/sector level is currently chaotic, with yesterday's moves largely a reversal of Wednesday's, although the recovery by lithium names continues to gather bullish momentum.

Afternoon report 10/07/2025 17:04

The Match Out: ASX follows U.S higher, shrugs off tariffs

Between copper, pharmaceutical and country-specific tariffs sprayed across the globe by U.S President Donald Trump overnight, there was plenty on the macro front for the local bourse to digest today.