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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 26.01 Fair value 29.81 One-star price 34.18
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (26.01) to the one-star price (34.18).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 31.90 |
| Price - 12 month high | 35.26 |
| Price - 12 month low | 20.46 |
| Pricing date | 4 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 1.53 |
| Market capitalization | 13,974.67 |
| 12 Month High price date | 7 AUG 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 18 NOV 2025 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 1.47 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -1.76% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -5.59% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 8.03% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -4.75% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 46.20% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 32.53% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 4.21% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.807 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.807 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1.928 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 37.616 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 37.616 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 23.545 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 23.545 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 20.379 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 20.379 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.665 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 2.665 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.909 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 3.909 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 1.300 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 4.281 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.820 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.820 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.830 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.830 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.543 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 17.66 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 16.54 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 0.85 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 1.68 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 58.70 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 8.16 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.35 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 188.01 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 16.40 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 2.10 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 600.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 2.53% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 3.90% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 4.08% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 239.90 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 14.54% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 16.21% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 7.96% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 9.45% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 239.90 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 16,605.90 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 16,605.90 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 1,890.10 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 1,890.10 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 1,135.90 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 1,135.90 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 802.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 802.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1,026.40 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 851.20 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 1.93 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 5.41% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 5.41% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 5.70% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 5.70% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 6.84% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 6.84% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 7.89% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 8.74% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 4.62% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 1.44% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 6.76% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 5.62% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 5.62% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 8.49% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 8.49% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 8.48% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 13.69% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 5.22% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | -5.00% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 23.86% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 8.23% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | -2.96% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -5.58% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 9.23% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 14.33% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | -3.31% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
BlueScope Steel has surged +42% this year helped by a $32.25 joint takeover bid from SGH (Seven Group Holdings) and US steelmaker Steel Dynamics - a rare rebuff that has so far benefited shareholders. Interestingly, SGH recently announced a $500 million buyback, demonstrating capital discipline, and while we're sure they remain very interested in BSL, their “Best & Final” offer may just be that.
BSL has outperformed the market in 2025, advancing +22.7% year-to-date. However, it remains only slightly above its 5-year average valuation, which, at a glance, feels “rich” for a company exposed to an economic slowdown.
BSL +12.98%: Delivered a strong 1st half result driven by increased Colorbond volumes in Australia, implying residential demand may be recovering more quickly than expected.
BlueScope (BSL) manufactures steel products (such as “Colorbond”) and is known for its operations down the road from Sydney in the Illawarra. When we consider the likely implications of a Trump Presidency on BSL the numbers stack up favourably as they compete against “cheap” Chinese imports.
BSL fell -3.1% on Monday, although it was down almost 7% earlier in the session. The steel supplier reported a 22% decline in fiscal 2024 profit and soft EBIT guidance that was ~5% below UBS estimates.
BSL rallied +1.7% on Thursday, helped by this week's upgrade by Citigroup from neutral to Buy following the stock's recent ~20% drop. Earlier in the month, the company cut 1H24 EBIT guidance by ~12% to A$620-670m; we felt the bulk of this downgrade was driven by lower US mini-mill realised spreads making up ~$80m of the downgrade and BSL Properties Group ~$10m sale project slipping into 2HFY24.
BSL is Australia's largest steel company which focuses on flat steel products including slab, hot rolled coil, and plate. The company’s main facilities include the North Star steel plant in Ohio, USA, and the Port Kembla Steelworks, the largest steel production facility in Australia plus it operates a US$1.36bn JV with Nippon Steel.
BSL -9.99%: The main focus this reporting season has been 2H guidance and BSL was no exception, they are now guiding for 2H22 earnings before interest & tax (EBIT) in the range of $480m - $550m which compares to consensus of $620m.
BSL has recently been added to our Hitlist for similar reasons to JHX, the stocks fallen well over 40% and it’s now trading on a P/E for 2023 of only 6.7x while at the same time the companies rolling out an exciting Colourbond equivalent in the US. Similar to the building space as a whole there’s a significant amount of bad news already factored into the...
BSL is catching some people’s attention after its 40% correction has the stock trading on a P/E valuation for 2023 of only 6.4x while at the same time the companies rolling out a Colourbond equivalent in the US plus there’s a huge amount of bad news already factored into the housing market – it’s undoubtedly “bottom picking” but we do like the risk/reward into further weakness.
MM is neutral towards BSL around $33
MM is neutral towards BSL
MM is cautiously bullish BSL
MM is cautiously bullish towards BSL
MM is neutral towards BSL
MM is neutral toward BSL
MM is bullish towards BSL medium term
MM is neutral BSL ~$18
MM likes BSL into current weakness
MM likes BSL around $15
BlueScope is an Australia-based steelmaker with five business units. The Australian steel products segment mainly specializes in branded coated and painted flat steel products, sold domestically. North Star is the group's US minimill, specializing in the production of hot rolled coil for US construction and automotive sectors. Building products Asia operates across Southeast Asia, China, and India, and the US building and coated products North America is involved in metal coating and painting, and the supply to nonresidential construction projects using BlueScope's materials. New Zealand steel and the Pacific Islands business produces flat and long steel products for New Zealand and building components for thePacific Islands.
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