Portfolio Positioning: We’re back knocking on the 7200 door!

The last 12 months have thrown a spanner in the works of normal logic when we look at bond yields and leading economic bellwether, Dr. Copper, the hawkish rhetoric from the Fed is the obvious explanation but at some point in time, the usual correlation breakdown is likely to unwind. We shouldn’t forget the Fed got it very wrong when it came to timing interest rate hikes, letting inflation rip in the process, what’s to say they don’t make an equally poor call with the timing of when to back off and let the US economy breathe:

scroll

OPINION
ACTION

Latest Reports

Morning report 29/08/2025 09:47

ETF Friday: Can ETFs offer good exposure to Rare Earths?

The ASX 200 advanced +0.2% on the penultimate trading day of August, taking its monthly gain to +2.7%. As we often say, there are “lies, more lies, and statistics,” and in this case, the average decline for August and September combined over the last decade before 2025 was around -3%. Interestingly, when August managed to close positively, it was followed by a poor September. Time will tell this year, but the market is feeling tired.

Afternoon report 28/08/2025 18:59

The Match Out: ASX edges up as the ‘Big Four’ come to the rescue again

The ASX 200 ended the day up though it would have been a different story if it weren’t for strength in the banks with ‘The Big Four’ providing ~35pts of index gain with limited help from other sectors.

Morning report 28/08/2025 09:27

What Matters Today: Three switches which are worth investigating

The ASX200 finished up +0.3% on Wednesday after an initial dip into lunchtime, following hotter-than-expected inflation data, which cooled expectations for a September rate cut. The big miners drove the market along with selected earnings standouts, even as the chances of a rate cut next month fell towards 20%.

Afternoon report 27/08/2025 18:17

The Match Out: ASX moves up after juggling inflation data & results, WOW slumps

The ASX moved higher today as strength in Materials and strong results from Tabcorp and Siteminder more than offset heavy losses in Woolworths with its worst single session on record after revealing a profit slump in their full-year result.

Income Report: Asset allocation framework when targeting income

Morning report 28/08/2025 09:31

Portfolio Positioning: All eyes switch to Nvidia tomorrow morning

The ASX200 retreated 0.4% on Tuesday, struggling from the get-go after Wall Street’s weakness on Monday night. Almost 60% of the market retreated, with losses concentrated in the materials and utilities sectors, although both were only down around 1%.

Afternoon report 26/08/2025 17:34

The Match Out: ASX loses steam as reporting starts to wind down

The ASX lost some steam today and as we penned this morning, we believe the market is starting to feel tired after its 25% advance from the April lows.

Morning report 26/08/2025 13:00

What Matters Today: Things can get confusing in the Resources Sector

The ASX200 closed up just +0.1% on Monday, after the index surrendered substantial early gains and failed to close above the psychological 9000 level. Selling was most noticeable in the banks, with the financial sector ending the day down 1.2% with 6 of the main boards' 11 main sectors closing lower.

Afternoon report 25/08/2025 17:01

The Match Out: ASX jumps then dumps as profit takers pile in

The ASX opened with a bang this morning hitting a high of 9054 before sellers got engaged, pushing the index down ~70pts from the early high. While the structure of the market still remains clearly bullish, we stick with our more neutral bias on stocks around all-time highs, and today's selling into strength, supports that view.

Morning report 25/08/2025 09:28

Macro Monday: Jerome Powell set to propel the ASX to new highs

Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his much-anticipated speech from Jackson Hole on Friday to signal that the US central bank is on track for an interest-rate cut in September, after holding its benchmark steady in the first eight months of the year. The market reaction was instantaneous, with Powell unleashing the biggest cross-market surge since April by striking a surprisingly dovish tone during his speech. The S&P 500 Index rebounded from a five-day slide, rising +1.5%; meanwhile, the rate/economically-sensitive Russell 2000 small-cap index surged almost 4%.

Weekend report 23/08/2025 08:53

Weekend Q&A: The Bull ASX200 cracks 9000 as volatility erupts on the stock level

The ASX200 fell away on Friday to close down 0.6%, with the heavyweight miners and banks largely reversing early gains to close lower. The index still managed to end the week up +0.3%, but it failed to hold above the psychological 9000 level, with healthcare, and especially CSL, weighing heavily. The week, as expected, was dominated by the reporting season, with “misses” treated a touch more severely than beats were embraced. However, that’s no major surprise with the index posting all-time highs as often as it rains in Sydney!