Portfolio Positioning: CBA makes new all-time highs look effortless

The local index triggered a buy signal for MM on Monday when it traded back above 7460, with our ideal target being the 7650-7700 area, suggesting further “risk on” is the order of the day into February. However, it’s important to reiterate that while MM is bullish over the coming weeks, we continue to believe the strong advance from late October is maturing, and we intend to migrate portfolios down the risk curve into further strength.

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Alerts 25/06/2025 17:38

Trade Alert – International Equities Portfolio

MM is buying a new stocks in the International Equities Portfolio

Afternoon report 25/06/2025 17:31

The Match Out: ASX flat, Xero (XRO) makes big bet on the US

The market held on to yesterdays rally today, finishing flat, as strength continued in the banks while the miners lagged as we approach the EOFY i.e. the trends that have persisted in FY25 are extending, however, what comes in FY26 is now firmly on our radar. While it’s hard to see anyone selling CBA before the 30th June and wearing a big tax bill, CBA’s +50% gain this year (relative to its ~4% earnings growth) pushing it up to a ~12% index weight in the ASX 200 is simply extraordinary. They say trees don’t grow to the sky, but CBA is certainly having a good crack, pushing its valuation to ~29x and yield down to 2.5%, closing today at a new record of $191.40!

Morning report 25/06/2025 09:36

Portfolio Positioning: MM still says “Buy the Dip” until further notice

The ASX200 surged almost 1% on Tuesday, taking the index back within 1% of its all-time high. Optimism that the worst of the Middle East conflict is already behind us drove the market higher on broad-based buying, which came with a definite “risk on” twist.

Afternoon report 24/06/2025 17:16

The Match Out: ASX rallies on ceasefire, Tech, Resources & IPO’s – it’s all back on!

A strong rebound for the ASX following news of a ceasefire overnight, though it seems missiles continued to fly today, and while it knocked the ASX off its morning high, the concern was short lived.

Morning report 24/06/2025 09:32

What Matters Today: Are property stocks set to rise as Auction Clearance rates hit a 1-year high?

The ASX200 was trading down almost 1% at midday on Monday before buyers returned, trimming over half of the morning's losses. The song remains the same, with buyers of weakness emerging, and again, banks led the way, e.g. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) +1%, and Westpac (WBC) +0.6%. Considering the geopolitical backdrop, Monday's 0.4% pullback was a stoic performance, which, in our opinion, illustrates that many investors, across the whole spectrum, have been caught underweight in stocks following the market's aggressive post “Liberation Day” V-shaped recovery.

Afternoon report 23/06/2025 17:12

The Match Out: Stocks experience only ‘mild’ reaction to US strikes on Iran

We were the first major market to absorb the weekend’s strikes on Iran, and while stocks fell, it was far from aggressive, with the ASX trading down ~80pts at the lows before the dip buyers emerged, pushing the index up ~50pts from the morning nadir.

Morning report 23/06/2025 09:33

Macro Monday: How could markets react to the US strikes on Iran?

Trump said he would take up to two weeks to decide on the US’s involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, but it ended up being closer to two days after American bombers struck Iran’s three main nuclear sites.

Weekend report 21/06/2025 10:48

Weekend Q&A: The ASX goes into holding pattern ahead of the EOFY

The ASX200 finished last week down 0.5% in a lacklustre period on the index level that was characterised by tight ranges with an overall net downside bias as the proverbial “Can” was kicked down the road in the Israel-Iran conflict. The ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East helped the energy sector advance by +5.3%, while the materials sector was the standout loser, driven by gold and iron ore names. Elsewhere, it felt like we were starting to see early signs of jockeying for the tax man and book ruling off into the EOFY.

Afternoon report 20/06/2025 16:42

The Match Out: ASX dips then bounces as Trump delays U.S involvement in the Middle East

It was a mixed day on the ASX today with half the main board higher/lower with the banks and materials sectors doing some damage early but the buy the dip mentality well and truly in play as we saw a significant grind higher through the session amounting to a +43pt move from the low of the day to the close.

Morning report 20/06/2025 09:37

What Matters Today: Using ETFs to Hedge or Short Stock Markets

The ASX 200 slipped another 0.1% on Thursday, with the song remaining the same on the stock & sector level. CBA scaled new highs, trading through $183, while weakness in the large-cap iron ore miners was enough to ensure the index closed mildly lower.