Portfolio Positioning: Are we witnessing the first signs of performance reversion?

Overnight US markets sold off aggressively after a hotter-than-expected CPI inflation read left the optimistic Doves near-term rate cut hopes in tatters. Bonds and stocks both slid following the release, which climbed the most in eight months just when investors were expecting confirmation that inflation is under control; the US 2s climbed back to levels not seen since the December central bank “pivot” – another example of crowded positioning coming under pressure. The release added credibility to Jerome Powell’s “wait-and-see attitude”, with the futures now pricing in a Fed Funds rate of ~4.45% by Christmas, around four cuts.

scroll

OPINION
ACTION

Latest Reports

Afternoon report 25/02/2026 18:16

The Match Out: Earnings propel ASX to all-time highs

Alerts 25/02/2026 09:58

Trade Alerts – Active Growth & Income Portfolios

We are making several changes to the growth & income portfolios

Morning report 25/02/2026 09:44

Portfolio Positioning: BHP and fellow miners keep dragging the ASX towards new all-time highs

The ASX200 closed flat on Tuesday despite less than 40% of the main board advancing. The story at the stock/sector level remained the same, with miners and banks offsetting losses across the broader market. BHP, Westpac and NAB added 24 points to the index. BHP, often referred to as the Big Australian, made new all-time highs on Tuesday, trading above $55 for the first time while it reported strongly this month, its starting to remind us of the feeding frenzy where ETF and momentum buyers drove CBA towards $200 in the first half of 2025:

Afternoon report 24/02/2026 17:19

The Match Out: Benign index move masks underlying volatility

Morning report 24/02/2026 09:43

What Matters Today: Three Companies that missed the mark, but has the market hit them too hard?

The ASX200 wobbled on Monday, as was largely expected, following Trump's tariff tantrum over the weekend, which created uncertainty around US trade policy. The local bourse slipped 0.6%, with over 70% of the main board retreating, but another strong session from the miners stemmed the losses, with heavyweight BHP again posting a fresh all-time high, closing up +19% year-to-date.

Afternoon report 23/02/2026 17:30

The Match Out: US Tariff hike shrugged off early, selling intensifies through the session

The ASX drifted lower as renewed uncertainty around US trade policy weighed on risk appetite, while gold extended its rally. Markets reacted to the US Supreme Court curbing President Trump’s tariff powers, prompting him to flag a temporary 15% blanket tariff on imports. The policy whiplash lifted safe havens, pushed the Aussie dollar towards US70.9c, and reignited selling pressure in technology.

Morning report 23/02/2026 09:25

Macro Monday: Don’t panic around Trumps 15% tariffs

On Friday, the US Supreme Court struck down most of Trump’s sweeping tariff policy under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ruling in a 6-3 vote that the law does not authorise the president to impose tariffs. Markets reacted positively to the ruling, with stocks rising, including Amazon, up more than 2%, alongside gains in retailers Home Depot and Five Below, amid hopes of relief from tariff-driven cost pressures and sticky inflation.

Weekend report 21/02/2026 10:11

Weekend Q&A: Markets hang around all-time highs as Trump’s tariffs are thrown into limbo

It was another bruising but ultimately constructive week for Australian equities, with the ASX200 finishing higher and holding close to all-time highs despite wild stock-level volatility as reporting season met the ongoing AI debate head-on. The index was again pulled in different directions under the surface, with sharp rotations between sectors and increasingly binary outcomes on earnings day. Strong results were rewarded aggressively, while any hint of disappointment was met with little mercy.

Afternoon report 20/02/2026 17:06

The Match Out: ASX holds steady near highs, QBE lifts on bumper result

The ASX slipped modestly today, though still managed a solid +1.84% gain over the week. A bounce from the low of the day was sustained as buyers stepped in through the session, despite tensions in the Middle East. Index moves will continue to hinge on single stock results, though the magnitude of moves likely fades given the heavyweight stocks have now come and gone this reporting season.

Morning report 20/02/2026 09:22

ETF Friday: Looking at Energy ETFs as Oil breaks above $US70/barrel

The ASX 200 posted a new intra-day high on Thursday before slipping into the close, ending a strong day up 79 points, or 0.9%. As reporting season gathers pace, yesterday’s session delivered another round of outsized moves from companies both beating and missing expectations.