Macro Monday: Will the RBA move ahead of the Federal election?

Last week saw the ASX200 consolidate its recent rally just below all-time highs despite the growing chorus for the RBA to act sooner rather than later and commence the inevitable interest rate tightening cycle, joining the US & Canada who raised by 0.25% in March and New Zealand who have now pushed through three rate increases taking the official cash rate to 1%. When the RBA cut rates way back in November of 2020 to the emergency setting of just 0.10% they based their decision on economic forecasts. By the end of 2022 they thought unemployment would be 6% and inflation would be 1.5%, as it stands now we have unemployment at 4% and inflation at 3.5%, a long way from these economic assumptions.

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Afternoon report 15/04/2025 17:03

The Match Out: Banks follow U.S peers up early, ASX runs out of steam late

Local stocks rose for the second straight session, with banks up early and maintaining, after an impressive start to reporting season by their U.S counterparts. President Trump indicated a temporary reprieve from tariffs on imported vehicles and parts providing incremental hope that tariffs will be paused or adjusted in other areas.

Morning report 15/04/2025 11:16

What Matters Today: Can the Australian “Big Banks” deliver like their US peers?

The ASX200 surged over 100 points on Monday, taking a positive lead after President Trump paused import duties on various consumer electronics. However, he warned markets on Sunday that tariffs are still coming in a social media post shortly after he finished his Sunday golf game: “NOBODY is getting off the hook”.

Afternoon report 14/04/2025 17:07

The Match Out: Sellers dwindle, ASX moves higher on tariff optimism

The ASX shot out of the gates, far above the slated +18pt rise indicated by SPI futures pre-market, +60pts on the open and grinding another +40pts higher slowly but surely over the day, as 10 out of 11 sectors finished in positive territory. The market took U.S President Donald Trump’s move to exempt selected consumer electronics from tariffs as a signal of willingness to be somewhat flexible and practical with his policies and negotiations more broadly.

Morning report 14/04/2025 09:46

Macro Monday: Trump blinks first in tariff war against China

President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be exempted from his reciprocal tariffs. This represents a significant reprieve for global technology manufacturers, including Apple (AAPL US) and Nvidia (NVDA US), whose shares had plunged over 25% at their worst since late March.

Weekend report 12/04/2025 10:05

Weekend Q&A: Tariff chaos and the S&P500 enjoys its best week since 2023!

Last week's wild gyrations on Wall Street shook investor confidence, but amazingly, US stocks wiped out early losses to deliver their best weekly gain since 2023. The Fear Index (VIX) spiked towards 60 on Monday before dropping to about 37 on Friday afternoon as relative calm returned to markets—a good sign into the weekend when posts can fly on X.

Afternoon report 11/04/2025 16:59

The Match Out: ASX gaps down, surges to close on intra-day high

Risk-off sentiment spilled over from overseas markets as the ASX gapped down -180pts on the open despite SPI futures indicating a less severe -115pt drop. Investors flocked to safe haven gold as the precious metal hit yet another all-time high above $US3100, with heavy selling in the growthier end of the market kicking things off.

Morning report 11/04/2025 11:00

What Matters Today: 3 Bullish ETFs MM likes as stocks appear to have bottomed

The ASX 200 surged +4.5% on Thursday, delivering its best day since the GFC. At the opening bell, 199 of the ASX200 were higher, and even though the market drifted slightly from its euphoria-driven open by the end of the day, 199 stocks still closed higher.

Afternoon report 10/04/2025 17:28

The Match Out: ASX soars on Trump tariff U-turn

It was a historic day as the ASX notched its biggest gain in over 5 years dating back to the COVID-19 pandemic. President Donald Trump’s 90 day pause on tariffs ignited equity markets around the globe and the local market was no different as the index soared +468pts on the open, until the realisation set in that tariffs on Chinese goods remain in place and were increased to 125%.

Morning report 10/04/2025 09:46

What Matters Today: As stocks soar, is it time to throw in the towel toward Lithium stocks?

The ASX 200 endured another volatile and ultimately brutal session on Wednesday, ending down 1.8%, as Trump’s tariffs came into force. Trump’s latest tariffs pushed levies imposed on China this year to as high as 104%, along with import taxes on roughly 60 trading partners that ran trade surpluses with the US.

Afternoon report 09/04/2025 17:31

The Match Out: Tariff reality sets in, spoils early rebound

The market showed surprising strength on no positive news to kick the session off, especially considering the weaker U.S session overnight, the ASX initially down -150pts on the open before rallying, clawing back +100pts through the morning.