Macro Monday: A snapshot look at markets into Christmas

The ASX200 was thumped 2.76% last week after the Fed side-swiped credit markets on Wednesday when, after cutting rates 0.25%, they delivered a less dovish outlook for interest rates than was expected;

The Fed revised its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, indicating that there will be two reductions, down from the four forecasted in September – a reasonable change in just three months.
Credit markets have already become sceptical towards the two cuts and are now pricing in a 50-50 chance that the 2^nd won’t be forthcoming before next Christmas.
Markets have been concerned that Trump’s policies will lift inflation. The Fed appears to be getting ahead of the curve, just in case.

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Afternoon report 17/04/2025 16:46

The Match Out: ASX strong as energy bounces back, commodity stocks impress on quarterlies

A bullish session after a decent hit to U.S markets overnight, particularly the tech sector which was -3.9% weaker amid further U.S tariff and policy intervention. It was a slow and steady move up over the day, opening flat but climbing ~5-10 points hour after hour.

Morning report 17/04/2025 09:38

What Matters Today: Did MM turn neutral towards Gold too early?

The ASX 200 performed well on Wednesday, considering US NASDAQ Futures were down over 2% by 4pm AEST, courtesy of poor news from both sides of the Atlantic before the respective bourses even opened. Global Tech stocks sank on a one-two of bad news for tech goliaths Nvidia and ASML, the last thing the embattled semiconductor sector needed.

Afternoon report 16/04/2025 17:42

The Match Out: ASX climbs then fades, BOQ impresses on margins

The ASX200 tried hard to rally throughout the session shrugging off early weakness in S&P500 futures as tech giant Nvidia announced new licensing requirements for US chipmakers exporting to China could cost the firm $US8bn a quarter causing the stock to trade down ~6% in after-hours trade.

Morning report 16/04/2025 09:54

Portfolio Positioning: It’s “almost” official; here come the RBA Rate Cuts

Yesterday, we heard the minutes of the RBA’s April board meeting, which was notably held two days before “Liberation Day”. The very clear message at the time was they were looking to cut interest rates in May.

Afternoon report 15/04/2025 17:03

The Match Out: Banks follow U.S peers up early, ASX runs out of steam late

Local stocks rose for the second straight session, with banks up early and maintaining, after an impressive start to reporting season by their U.S counterparts. President Trump indicated a temporary reprieve from tariffs on imported vehicles and parts providing incremental hope that tariffs will be paused or adjusted in other areas.

Morning report 15/04/2025 11:16

What Matters Today: Can the Australian “Big Banks” deliver like their US peers?

The ASX200 surged over 100 points on Monday, taking a positive lead after President Trump paused import duties on various consumer electronics. However, he warned markets on Sunday that tariffs are still coming in a social media post shortly after he finished his Sunday golf game: “NOBODY is getting off the hook”.

Afternoon report 14/04/2025 17:07

The Match Out: Sellers dwindle, ASX moves higher on tariff optimism

The ASX shot out of the gates, far above the slated +18pt rise indicated by SPI futures pre-market, +60pts on the open and grinding another +40pts higher slowly but surely over the day, as 10 out of 11 sectors finished in positive territory. The market took U.S President Donald Trump’s move to exempt selected consumer electronics from tariffs as a signal of willingness to be somewhat flexible and practical with his policies and negotiations more broadly.

Morning report 14/04/2025 09:46

Macro Monday: Trump blinks first in tariff war against China

President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be exempted from his reciprocal tariffs. This represents a significant reprieve for global technology manufacturers, including Apple (AAPL US) and Nvidia (NVDA US), whose shares had plunged over 25% at their worst since late March.

Weekend report 12/04/2025 10:05

Weekend Q&A: Tariff chaos and the S&P500 enjoys its best week since 2023!

Last week's wild gyrations on Wall Street shook investor confidence, but amazingly, US stocks wiped out early losses to deliver their best weekly gain since 2023. The Fear Index (VIX) spiked towards 60 on Monday before dropping to about 37 on Friday afternoon as relative calm returned to markets—a good sign into the weekend when posts can fly on X.

Afternoon report 11/04/2025 16:59

The Match Out: ASX gaps down, surges to close on intra-day high

Risk-off sentiment spilled over from overseas markets as the ASX gapped down -180pts on the open despite SPI futures indicating a less severe -115pt drop. Investors flocked to safe haven gold as the precious metal hit yet another all-time high above $US3100, with heavy selling in the growthier end of the market kicking things off.