Macro Monday: A recession or not, that is the question

Most pundits are blaming Trump 2.0 and the accompanying uncertainty that tariffs entail for the reason that many global indices have corrected from their recent highs; for example, the ASX 200 has fallen 10.2%, and the US S&P 500 has fallen 10.5%.

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Afternoon report 15/05/2025 16:56

The Match Out: Stocks grind higher, Xero (XRO) reports & rallies

The market had a few reasons to decline today following a quiet night overseas, further weakness in US Futures during our time zone, Asian markets that tracked lower and strong employment data out at 11.30am reducing rate cut expectations, however stocks looked through the negative vibe and edged higher- in other words, they simply look like they want to go up!

Morning report 15/05/2025 17:41

What Matters Today: Evaluating three new entrants to the ASX200

The ASX 200 struggled early on Wednesday before rallying into the close to finish the session up just over 10 points, enjoying its sixth day of consecutive gains, and posting its highest close in 11 weeks. There might not have been too much buying into strength this week, but in comparable fashion, sellers weren’t keen to increase cash levels into weakness.

Afternoon report 14/05/2025 17:25

The Match Out: ASX consolidates recent gains, Aussie wages up more than tipped.

The market chopped around par for much of the session before pushing mildly higher into the close underpinned by strength in the Energy and IT sectors, while the influential banks and miners also player their part.

Morning report 15/05/2025 17:42

Portfolio Positioning: The US S&P 500 turns positive for 2025, led by AI

The ASX200 advanced +0.4% on Tuesday, posting a new 12-week high, but overall it was a disappointing performance after an early +1% move, especially compared to the 3.3% overnight surge by the US S&P 500 Index.

Afternoon report 13/05/2025 16:39

The Match Out: Stocks rally, though optimism fades as the day progressed

The ASX rallied today, keying off a good session in the U.S predicated on positive tariff developments, though the move was somewhat disappointing/unconvincing. Stocks saw the best of it early, with a clear rotation out of defensives into cyclicals, and while some held their gains for the full session, others experienced profit taking, pushing the index ~45pts off it’s highs.

Morning report 13/05/2025 10:14

What Matters Today: Four stocks MM would sell/switch as US-China slash tariffs

The ASX200 struggled on Monday, failing to embrace a strong opening by the US S&P 500 futures after the US and China reported “substantial progress” after two days of talks in Switzerland aimed at de-escalating the worrying trade war. The main board opened strongly up almost 50 points before drifting lower throughout the session to finish basically unchanged as optimism around trade succumbed to caution.

Afternoon report 12/05/2025 17:36

The Match Out: ASX flounders as investors await trade deal

Poised for a relatively uneventful session after a soft US market on Friday night, trade talks between the White House and China over the weekend set off US futures this morning, lighting a spark for the Australian market early.

Morning report 12/05/2025 09:34

Macro Monday: The US-China $US Trillion Dollar report “Substantial Progress”

Senior US and Chinese negotiators resumed the high-stakes talks on Sunday in an attempt to de-escalate their trade war/embargo. President Donald Trump called Saturday's discussions a “very good” meeting. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng were leading the negotiations expected to span two days in Switzerland, the first publicised, in-person talks since President Donald Trump imposed 145% levies on China and Beijing retaliated with 125% tariffs on many American goods and new export controls on rare earth minerals.

Weekend report 10/05/2025 08:24

Weekend Q&A: Stocks take a well-deserved rest as tariff news improves

The ASX 200 ended a relatively quiet week down just 0.1%, not a bad effort considering ANZ and Westpac (WBC) delivered slightly softer 1H25 results, and WBC traded ex-dividend. Positive tariff news from the UK and US, plus optimism that something positive will come from the pending early talks between the US and China, supported a fairly lacklustre market, which remained in a tight 1.3% range all week. With news flow from Trump 2.0 relatively slow, the market was primarily keying off stock-specific news from reporting and the Macquarie Conference, leading to a very mixed bag in the “Winners & Losers” enclosure:

Afternoon report 09/05/2025 17:29

The Match Out: Positive US-UK trade talks fuel ASX rise

Technology stocks led the way today as the market opened a soft +10pts higher but quickly gained momentum following a positive session in the US overnight where risk-on sentiment fueled small caps higher after framework around trade policy between the White House and the UK firmed – a 10% base, though potential rollback of certain tariffs remains in play.