We last discussed NRW Holdings a month ago Here, it’s in very strong shape, with a record order book of around $7.5bn supported by strong pipeline and significant forward opportunities i.e. it has solid earnings visibility into FY26–28. Recent results show strong momentum, with both revenue and earnings growing materially and guidance upgraded, underpinned by good cash generation and a healthy balance sheet – in FY22 revenue was $2.4bn, that forecast to soar to $4.5bn in FY27.
- Recent contract wins have been solid, highlighted by NRW’s $750m Meandu Mine contract in January 2026, though activity remains skewed toward sustaining and brownfield work rather than broad greenfield expansions.
- Much of the current strength is driven by contract extensions and sustaining capex rather than a broad-based wave of new greenfield projects.
That’s interesting – it means we’re not seeing large scale ramp up in supply at a time when demand across most key commodities is improving i.e. miners are still showing a high degree of cost discipline.
- We like NRW, but with the stock trading ~50% above its average valuation over the last 5 years, we’re reluctant to chase the breakout, though technically, the stock looks good while it can hold above $6.40.
MM is cautiously bullish towards NWH around $6.70.
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