MIN -2.27%: Turned the earnings dial sharply higher in FY26, with the ramp-up of Onslow Iron and improved lithium contribution returning the group to strong profitability. The headline result was broadly where the market expected, although revenue was a touch light as Mining Services missed forecasts
Key results:
- Revenue of A$6.46bn, up 44% but ~2% below A$6.56bn expected.
- Underlying earnings (EBITDA) of A$2.55bn, versus A$901m last year and broadly in line with A$2.57bn expected.
- Net profit (NPAT) of A$1.06bn, versus a A$904m loss and ~8% ahead of A$984m expected.
- Iron ore revenue of A$3.59bn, up 54% and broadly in line with A$3.57bn expected.
- Lithium revenue of A$1.31bn, more than doubling and slightly ahead of A$1.29bn expected.
- Mining Services revenue of A$3.11bn, down 5.6% and ~6% below A$3.32bn expected.
- Final dividend of 83cps, a meaningful return of cash after the heavy investment phase.
Mining Services volumes are expected to grow 9-14% to 370-390Mt, helped by Onslow, Mt Marion and new contracts. Wodgina should also improve materially as cleaner ore feeds all three trains from 2Q27, supporting 14-23% higher sales volumes, while Bald Hill is targeting nameplate production in 2Q.
MM’s view: MIN looks a very different business to twelve months ago, but we’d argue the next leg of the story is less about proving it can generate EBITDA and more about proving that EBITDA can translate into cash and lower debt. Onslow is now doing the heavy lifting, lithium is recovering and Mining Services should return to growth, which gives MIN several earnings levers rather than relying on a single commodity. We like the direction of travel, but with A$1.43bn of FY27 capex and plenty of operational work still required at Wodgina and Mt Marion, there is still plenty to do in terms of deleveraging the balance sheet.
MM remains neutral toward MIN
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