We exited our LTR position in our Emerging Companies Portfolio in January; now, 40% lower, it’s back on our radar as a clearly leveraged play on the lithium price. Operationally, LTR is on track to meet FY26 guidance despite 3Q Spodumene production falling 8.5% quarter-on-quarter. With a significantly higher cost of production, this is a more leveraged stock to the underlying Li price – AISC guidance for FY26 was reaffirmed at A$1,060–A$1,295/t, with Q3 FY26 AISC rising to A$1,251/t due to higher royalties and softer production.
NB we also have the wildcard factor of Gina Rheinhart owning ~15% of the company.
- We can see LTR finding strong support below $1.30, but as a higher-cost producer it is especially vulnerable to a deeper correction by Li, so some caution warranted with this one.
MM is cautiously bullish towards LTR around $1.25
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