BLD has bounced +68% from its October low although the chart pattern should be largely dismissed due to the significant capital return in 2022. BLD started FY23 with a better-than-expected 1H23 result, albeit with a very low bar following a tough FY22, but we believe the current share price implies significantly more progress is needed and requires Boral to achieve the upper end of its 10-12% EBIT margin target range. Hence the stock is “feeling tired” around the $4 area and we wouldn’t be considering going long at this stage.
- We are now cautious towards BLD on balance believing the next 10% move is more likely on the downside.
MM is neutral towards BLD around $4
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