AGL has enjoyed a great few months rallying well over 50% when much of the market slipped away under inflation and Ukraine fears. Short-term we can see a pullback in line with our view on the sector level but we like this ‘turnaround play’ into any weakness – its already delivering strong paper profits for the MM Active Income Portfolio and may also have a place in our Growth Portfolio.
We should also remember that the company recently received a takeover approach from a Brookfield / Mike Cannon-Brookes consortium that proposed buying AGL for $7.50, an almost insulting premium to the last close at the time and in our opinion completely unrealistic for a change of control transaction – we think they’ll be more to play out with this approach which adds weight to the stock as a defensive play.