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How will AGL make money with Mike Cannon-Brookes?

Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.

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How will AGL make money with Mike Cannon-Brookes?

Hi James and crew, As always, I find MM to be stimulating and informative. Keep up the good work. Can anyone explain how AGL will be able to make money if the plans of Mike Cannon-Brookes are implemented? I assume that AGL's fossil fuel power plants are profitable at present and, as part of Australia's efforts to achieve net zero by 2050, such plants will have to close sooner rather than later. But the closure of existing plants will require: * expensive remediation of the power station sites after they close * major expenditures on renewable energy systems (presumably mainly wind and solar) and * significant investments in poles and wires to bring electricity to where it can be used. I cannot see how this net zero scenario can be profitable for a company such as AGL unless there are large subsidies provided by taxpayers via federal (and state?) governments. Considering the current net indebtedness of governments and the need for higher taxation or borrowings to pay for the NDIS and in the aged care sector for example, something's gotta give and I expect taxpayer subsidies to be the first to go. To rephrase my question, why would anyone invest in a company whose profitability is largely dependent on the decisions of governments whose primary objectives are to be reelected every 3 years?

Answer

Hi Bernie,

AGL Energy (AGL) is currently the biggest producer of renewable energy in the country and there will be government assistance to grow this significantly, however the private sector will also play a big part here. I suspect long term private capital will help fund new generation assets, potentially via things like ‘green bonds’ with the company estimating a required investment of $20bn. In terms of transmission infrastructure, this will likely come from outside of AGL, but again, there is a lot more to do here.

The basis of your point though is a good one. When thinking about AGL as an investment, there are so many moving parts to this equation and ultimately, the modelling is a best guess sort of approach with the information we have available here and now. We still own AGL, having bought it at $6.83  however we think at levels above $8 it is closer to a sell.

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AGL Energy (AGL)
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