AGL -4.33%: Hit today after Macquarie downgraded them to hold, but with a big amendment to their price target. There have been a few questions this week on broker moves, and today AGL provides a good case in point. For subscribers. Ian Myles, the analyst at MQG that has pushed through the downgrade is the No 1 rated analyst on the stock, so his calls hold more weight than others. Incidentally, there are analysts in the market that we just don’t take notice of, but we’re reticent to highlight this publicly. In our experience, not all analysts add value via analytical/deep research, some simply look at rudimentary indicators that rely on measures such as PE bands to form a view, which we think is way too simplistic. Ian has a good handle on AGL and ORG for that matter, very similar companies, and is well respected in these two names, perhaps more so than in his other stocks that include: APA, TCL, AZJ & ALX.
- The chart below outlines Ian’s history of calls on AGL.
Today’s downgrade to hold from Buy was predicated on Energy pricing, where he said that…..forward curves since December have not improved, with the anticipated summer surge not emerging. FY25 curves are down $8/MWh and FY26 down $4/MWh across both NSW and Vic, with pricing now sitting at ~$100/MWh for NSW and $68/MWh in Vic for FY25. This is materially different to FY22, where there was a concern of shortages.
MM is now neutral on AGL, reassessing our position in the Active Income Portfolio
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AGL Energy (AGL) – Ian Myles Calls – Source Bloomberg
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AGL Energy (AGL) – Ian Myles Calls – Source Bloomberg
