Macro Monday: Bond yields remain the key for now

The ASX200 fell 120-points / 1.8% last week with all of the losses, plus more, occurring on Friday as rising bond yields shook the confidence of global equities. Friday was the last trading day of February and it’s common that volatility becomes elevated at both the start and finish of a month, interestingly both January and February saw early strength with tops on the 17th & 25th respectively before weakness saw most of the months gains lost in fairly rapid fashion – as we’ve said previously it feels like the airs getting thin whenever 7000 is on the horizon. From a seasonal perspective the next few months are pretty neutral before weakness usually sets in for May & June hence at this stage we believe that MM’s mantra for 2021 of “buy weakness and sell strength” remains very much in play especially when we consider the last 2 months.

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Weekend report 10/05/2025 08:24

Weekend Q&A: Stocks take a well-deserved rest as tariff news improves

The ASX 200 ended a relatively quiet week down just 0.1%, not a bad effort considering ANZ and Westpac (WBC) delivered slightly softer 1H25 results, and WBC traded ex-dividend. Positive tariff news from the UK and US, plus optimism that something positive will come from the pending early talks between the US and China, supported a fairly lacklustre market, which remained in a tight 1.3% range all week. With news flow from Trump 2.0 relatively slow, the market was primarily keying off stock-specific news from reporting and the Macquarie Conference, leading to a very mixed bag in the “Winners & Losers” enclosure:

Afternoon report 09/05/2025 17:29

The Match Out: Positive US-UK trade talks fuel ASX rise

Technology stocks led the way today as the market opened a soft +10pts higher but quickly gained momentum following a positive session in the US overnight where risk-on sentiment fueled small caps higher after framework around trade policy between the White House and the UK firmed – a 10% base, though potential rollback of certain tariffs remains in play.

Morning report 09/05/2025 09:29

What Matters Today: Are Real Estate stocks still a Buy?

The ASX200 embraced the rumours that Trump's much-awaited “good news” was a trade deal with the UK, which, on top of the previous day’s announcement that the US and China would sit down and talk this week in Switzerland, was enough to lift the local index up +0.16% after a soft opening.

Afternoon report 08/05/2025 18:05

The Match Out: ASX inches higher on trade optimism

A fairly quiet day across the board, though, it was positive with 75% of the main board finishing in the green as Trump talks up trade deals…"Big News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M.," he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Morning report 08/05/2025 09:52

What Matters Today: Can the Miners rally as China cuts rates & prepares to meet the US?

The ASX 200 lived in the future rather than the past on Wednesday, ignoring a weak overnight session on Wall Street, instead focusing on the fresh news that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and top trade official Jamieson Greer would meet with their Chinese counterparts this week in Switzerland.

Afternoon report 07/05/2025 17:08

The Match Out: NAB reports well as ASX grinds higher

It was a mixed session for the local bourse as China’s long-awaited rate cuts came into play, lifting commodities and energy stocks higher. A solid result from NAB provided the bedrock for a decent rally through the middle of the day, with US futures giving an extra kick amid expectations Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to meet senior Chinese officials in Switzerland on Thursday.

Morning report 07/05/2025 09:32

Portfolio Positioning: The ASX200 takes a rest as Fund Managers camp out at Macquarie

The ASX200 slipped 0.1% on Tuesday, posting its second consecutive negative session, although it's hardly made a dent in the aggressive 15% recovery from the early April panic lows. Trading was relatively subdued with fund managers focused on the Macquarie Australia Conference, which is often regarded as an early confession opportunity. Results were mixed on Tuesday, but the presentations continue to move markets as investors look for clues around what comes next, outside of the chatter around Trump and the weekend Federal Election.

Afternoon report 06/05/2025 16:57

The Match Out: Banks weigh as Macquarie Conference kicks off

A second day of declines for the ASX, though it was hardly aggressive, and more stocks actually rose than fell, as banks and healthcare names weighed at the index level. The Macquarie conference kicked off this morning and we’ve seen a bunch of companies recut guidance, more on the downside than upside which is customary but it wasn’t all bad news with several re-affirming prior numbers.

Morning report 06/05/2025 10:55

What Matters Today: Can oil stocks eventually follow the gold sector?

The ASX200 struggled on Monday following a mildly softer report from Westpac (WBC), the first influential bank to face the music this month. Their headline first-half miss on profit, a flat dividend (76c) when the market was looking for an increase and a slight net interest margin (NIM) contraction sent the 4th largest stock on the bourse down 3% on the day.

Afternoon report 05/05/2025 17:05

The Match Out: ASX snaps winning streak with banks under the pump

Red returned to the screen today with broad based weakness across the ASX. The banks came under pressure after Westpac’s 1H25 numbers mildly underwhelmed while a sharp pullback in Oil prices put the Kibosh on the energy stocks. It’s been a very good run in the market from the 7th April low of 7169, with the ASX 200 up ~1000pts / 15%, some consolidation of the move now likely in our view.