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A200
MM remains bullish towards the ASX 200 around 8700
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IVV
MM remains bullish towards the S&P 500 around 7800 into Christmas
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NDQ
MM is bullish towards US techy stocks into Christmas
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GGOV US
We are cautiously bullish/neutral towards US bonds (yields lower)
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VGB
MM is cautiously bullish/neutral towards local 10’s (yields lower)
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URNM
MM is bullish towards uranium and the “Nuclear Trade”
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OOO
MM is cautiously bearish towards December oil around US$100/barrel.
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ULE US
MM is neutral towards the EURO around 1.12
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SEK
Trade Idea: Buy SEEK Ltd (SEK) using a limit of $12, with stops at $11.05, around 8% risk.
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ELD
Trade Idea: Buy Elders Ltd (ELD) using a limit of $6.25, with stops at $5.88, around 6% risk.
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Latest Reports

Morning report

Macro Monday, on a Tuesday: Bond yields continue to weigh on stocks

The financial press keeps telling us that stocks are expensive and a correction is inevitable, yet US markets remain within 1% of new all-time highs. The chart below tells an interesting story about the two factors pulling the S&P 500 in opposite directions through 2026. Blended forward EPS estimates have surged 35% since year-end, reflecting strong corporate earnings, particularly across AI-related companies, yet the index itself is up only +11.8%.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Has the ASX 200 found its low?

The ASX 200 finished a volatile week up +0.2%, almost as if Thursdays ~2% plunge to fresh four month lows didn’t exist. The weekly change masked significant volatility as investors digested the RBA’s fourth rate hike of 2026 alongside softer-than-expected inflation data. Technology was the standout sector, surging 7.3%, while the dominant theme remained interest rates, with the cash rate reaching a 15-year high of 4.6%, although softer CPI and Governor Bullock’s subsequent comments tempered expectations for further tightening.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX bounces back as broker upgrades lift market out of two-day funk

The ASX bounced today following yesterday’s broad-based sell-off with the rebound driven by a recovery in Technology, while nine of the 11 sectors finished higher. The move leaves the index up +0.2% for the week after a volatile few sessions, with the market still looking for confirmation that the recent surge in bond yields and oil prices has potentially peaked.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

ETF Friday: 3 ETFs for yield away from Private Credit

The ASX 200 was walloped ~2% on the first day of October, registering its biggest daily fall in over six months on broad based selling which saw over 90% of the main board close lower. The selling was compounded by the index breaking to fresh 4-month lows, triggering momentum and trend following systems sell to more, erasing close to $60bn from the index in the process. We believe the aggressive nature of yesterday’s decline came down to three reasons.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX gets hit, falls to 3-month low as global bond yields push higher

Today's move was effectively the mirror image of yesterday with the ASX back to its lowest level since June. The market rallied almost 1% yesterday on softer CPI and hopes that the RBA may be close to the end of its tightening cycle, but bond yields reversed higher overnight and quickly put that trade under pressure.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA delivers an ‘almost Dovish’ rate hike

The ASX 200 rebounded 0.3% following yesterday’s 0.25% RBA rate hike, helped by Governor Michele Bullock’s comments proving less hawkish than many had feared. The cash rate is now at a 15-year high of 4.60%, but we found the market's reaction encouraging: the A$ fell to a two-month low and credit markets pared back expectations for further tightening, with only around a 60% chance of one more hike before Christmas now priced in.

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The financial press keeps telling us that stocks are expensive and a correction is inevitable, yet US markets remain within 1% of new all-time highs. The chart below tells an interesting story about the two factors pulling the S&P 500 in opposite directions through 2026. Blended forward EPS estimates have surged 35% since year-end, reflecting strong corporate earnings, particularly across AI-related companies, yet the index itself is up only +11.8%.

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