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A200
MM remains bullish towards the ASX 200 around 8700
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IVV
MM remains bullish towards the S&P 500 around 7800 into Christmas
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NDQ
MM is bullish towards US techy stocks into Christmas
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GGOV US
We are cautiously bullish/neutral towards US bonds (yields lower)
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VGB
MM is cautiously bullish/neutral towards local 10’s (yields lower)
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URNM
MM is bullish towards uranium and the “Nuclear Trade”
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OOO
MM is cautiously bearish towards December oil around US$100/barrel.
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ULE US
MM is neutral towards the EURO around 1.12
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SEK
Trade Idea: Buy SEEK Ltd (SEK) using a limit of $12, with stops at $11.05, around 8% risk.
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ELD
Trade Idea: Buy Elders Ltd (ELD) using a limit of $6.25, with stops at $5.88, around 6% risk.
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Latest Reports

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Anthropic’s IPO reinvigorates the “AI Trade”

For the second consecutive day, the ASX 200 recovered from early losses to close higher, this time a more impressive +0.5%. Gains were concentrated in the miners, with the materials sector adding 58 points to the index, while financials dragged by 18 points. If the two could just move in the same direction, we’d be trading above 9,000 in the blink of an eye! The miners, and in particular copper names, enjoyed two strong tailwinds on Tuesday.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Evaluating 4 big ASX movers

The ASX 200 reversed from early steep losses to close up +0.2% on Monday, with a +1.7% bounce by the materials sector adding +35 points to the index, more than offsetting weakness in the financials.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX rallies hard from the low to close higher as Miners rebound

The ASX staged a sharp intraday recovery, rallying ~85 points from its morning low to finish higher as technology, resources and property shares turned higher. The rebound followed early weakness as the market weighed the risk of higher interest rates against a busy week of Australian inflation data, US earnings and central bank decisions. Materials recovered some ground after last week’s selloff, while the major banks pared their early losses.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Macro Monday: Should we be reweighting our portfolios in earnest?

Relative sector performance is very often cyclical, depending on different factors such as bond yields and global economic growth. It may not feel like it, but the ASX 200 Financials and Materials sectors have delivered comparable gains since COVID, rising ~60% and ~50%, respectively, but they’ve followed very different paths.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: We need a weekend after the last few days!

The ASX 200 finished a volatile week, especially at the stock and sector level, with an 8% drop in the materials sector dragging down the broader market by just 0.1% despite almost 60% of the main boards closing higher. However, when we see heavyweight miners South32 (-11%), Sandfire (-10%), BHP Group (-8%), and RIO Tinto (-6%), it was always going to be tough for the index to advance.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: Banks and retailers keep ASX afloat as miners slide

The ASX spent most of the session trading lower off the back of a weaker session playing out in the US, particularly Tech overnight. Banks and consumer-facing stocks provided a lift, but the modest gain masked a sharp divide across the market.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Fund Friday: Three portfolio themes that could have turned

The ASX 200 recovered almost half of its early morning losses, but it still finished the day down 0.4% in a very polarised session. The damage on the index level was again inflicted by miners, with BHP on its own accounting for more than 60% of the index's decline. Fortunately, the banks and broader market were again supportive, with the number of winners just managing to edge the losers despite the main board's decline.

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The financial press keeps telling us that stocks are expensive and a correction is inevitable, yet US markets remain within 1% of new all-time highs. The chart below tells an interesting story about the two factors pulling the S&P 500 in opposite directions through 2026. Blended forward EPS estimates have surged 35% since year-end, reflecting strong corporate earnings, particularly across AI-related companies, yet the index itself is up only +11.8%.

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