17/02/2025 09:25

Euro (EURUSD) FX

Read more

11/06/2024 08:53

Currencies

The Greenback bounced last week as Fed rate cuts were put on ice, but the move hardly registered on the chart as the 105 holds for the $US Index, which measures the US currency against a basket of its major trading partners. Again, it has already been 18 months of trading in the current area, and it's akin to a game of 2-up forecasting when it will push towards 100 or 110.

Read more

03/06/2024 09:00

Currencies

The Greenback experienced a very quiet week, considering the CPI was released on Friday. With economic releases showing few surprises in either direction, both bonds and the $US trod water for a second week. Ultimately, we are looking for the $US to retest and eventually break its 2023 low, around the 100 level. However, again, after trading sideways for over 12 months, it's guesswork as to when the $US will go in search of a new level of equilibrium.

Read more

15/04/2024 09:11

Currencies

The Greenback broke out to a fresh 2024 high on Friday, as its “safe haven” status attracted plenty of buying into the weekend as well-founded fears around Iran gathered momentum. The short-term gyrations of the US dollar are likely to be determined by ongoing news flow out of the Middle East, and it's likely to take a while before markets become fully calmed. Volatility is likely to persist this FY.

Read more

05/02/2024 08:58

Currencies

The $US continues to move in tandem with bond yields; hence, if we are correct in 1Q, it’s a buy around 100 and sell nearer to 105. We remain ultimately bearish on the $US, but as rate cuts get pushed further down the track in 2024, it's unlikely the Greenback will make a foray under the psychological 100 level. In simple terms, a strong US economy keeps both yields and the $US elevated.

Read more

30/10/2023 08:59

Currencies

The $US ended a quiet week slightly higher as it remains the currency of choice during these uncertain geopolitical times. The $US has been consolidating its bounce from the psychological 100 area since late September, and what comes next in the short term, unfortunately, feels like guesswork at this stage.

Read more

09/10/2023 09:04

Currencies

The Euro has corrected back to our targeted 1.05 region, and our preferred scenario is it will regain the strength it exhibited through most of 2023, a great read-through for equities. This morning’s minor -0.25% dip following the events in the Middle East illustrates the likely muted early reaction across financial markets and the Euros underlying strength following the pullback over the last four months.

Read more

11/09/2023 08:59

Currencies

The $US ended last week testing 105 resistance area following rising fears of Fed rate hikes courtesy of ongoing economic solid data. We believe the “easy money” for the contrarian investor is behind us with what comes next likely to be very data-dependent.

Read more

21/08/2023 09:18

Currencies

The $US posted fresh 9 week highs last week as the Feds hawkish rhetoric made the Greenback and its respective bond market ever more attractive as yields ground higher. However as markets position themselves for higher yields at this week’s bond auctions we believe much of the news is already built into the $US and short term risk/reward has swung back in favour of the bears.

Read more

17/07/2023 09:10

Currencies

The Euro was one of the main beneficiaries of the drop by the $US, it tested its 2022 high with further gains looking like just a matter of time. Similar to our view toward the Pound which was discussed last week we are bullish toward the Euro targeting a test of the 1.20-1.25 area, a move which again coincides with our outlook on bond yields.

Read more