15/04/2024 09:11

Currencies

The Greenback broke out to a fresh 2024 high on Friday, as its “safe haven” status attracted plenty of buying into the weekend as well-founded fears around Iran gathered momentum. The short-term gyrations of the US dollar are likely to be determined by ongoing news flow out of the Middle East, and it's likely to take a while before markets become fully calmed. Volatility is likely to persist this FY.

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05/02/2024 08:58

Currencies

The $US continues to move in tandem with bond yields; hence, if we are correct in 1Q, it’s a buy around 100 and sell nearer to 105. We remain ultimately bearish on the $US, but as rate cuts get pushed further down the track in 2024, it's unlikely the Greenback will make a foray under the psychological 100 level. In simple terms, a strong US economy keeps both yields and the $US elevated.

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30/10/2023 08:59

Currencies

The $US ended a quiet week slightly higher as it remains the currency of choice during these uncertain geopolitical times. The $US has been consolidating its bounce from the psychological 100 area since late September, and what comes next in the short term, unfortunately, feels like guesswork at this stage.

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09/10/2023 09:04

Currencies

The Euro has corrected back to our targeted 1.05 region, and our preferred scenario is it will regain the strength it exhibited through most of 2023, a great read-through for equities. This morning’s minor -0.25% dip following the events in the Middle East illustrates the likely muted early reaction across financial markets and the Euros underlying strength following the pullback over the last four months.

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11/09/2023 08:59

Currencies

The $US ended last week testing 105 resistance area following rising fears of Fed rate hikes courtesy of ongoing economic solid data. We believe the “easy money” for the contrarian investor is behind us with what comes next likely to be very data-dependent.

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21/08/2023 09:18

Currencies

The $US posted fresh 9 week highs last week as the Feds hawkish rhetoric made the Greenback and its respective bond market ever more attractive as yields ground higher. However as markets position themselves for higher yields at this week’s bond auctions we believe much of the news is already built into the $US and short term risk/reward has swung back in favour of the bears.

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17/07/2023 09:10

Currencies

The Euro was one of the main beneficiaries of the drop by the $US, it tested its 2022 high with further gains looking like just a matter of time. Similar to our view toward the Pound which was discussed last week we are bullish toward the Euro targeting a test of the 1.20-1.25 area, a move which again coincides with our outlook on bond yields.

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17/04/2023 09:15

Currencies

No major change, we now expect the Greenback to rotate in the 101-106 area as the Fed’s rate path becomes the most important focus of FX markets i.e. we believe 101-105 is around fair value until the next economic chapter reveals its hand. At MM we continue to believe the $US is one of the major keys to equities through 2023/4 with it likely to exert a neutral to a mildly negative influence on risk assets if we do see a rotation back towards 105.

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20/07/2022 09:37

Global Macro ETF Portfolio

The MM Global Macro ETF Portfolio rallied +0.98% last week aided by strong moves in our Uranium Trust (U-U CN) +8.8% and the $A (AUDS) +3.7% while the standout drag across the portfolio came from our gold ETF (MNRS) -3.7%.

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06/07/2022 09:44

Global Macro ETF Portfolio

The MM Global Macro ETF Portfolio fell -3.12% last week as recession fears washed through global markets, our ETFS Battery Tech & Lithium ETF (ACDC) -5.5% and Sprotts Physical Uranium Trust (U-U CN) -4.1% where the main drags on the portfolio.

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