Portfolio Positioning: The ASX200 “again” looks poised to test the 9000 level

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Morning report 15/07/2026 09:51

Portfolio Positioning: The ASX200 “again” looks poised to test the 9000 level

The ASX 200 has now rallied from early losses to close near its highs for five consecutive sessions, after recovering an early 50-point deficit on Tuesday to end the session flat. The miners bounced strongly to close higher despite crude oil trading ~5% higher, with Evolution Mining (+3.2%), South32 (+2%), Regis Resources (+2%), Sandfire (+1.5%), and BHP Group (+0.6%) catching our eye as a slow but steady bid tone surfaced across the gold and copper names. These miners were helped by a recovery in gold (+0.5%) and copper (+1.5%) during our trading session as the $US edged lower ahead of the important US CPI inflation data.

Afternoon report 14/07/2026 17:26

The Match Out: The market ‘wants’ to go up

Another session where stocks were hit early before a spirited fightback saw the index little changed, recovering ~50pts from the session low. It certainly seems the market wants to go up; it just can’t get any clear air out of the Middle East. The ASX 200 finished virtually unchanged on Tuesday as weakness in the banks, consumer staples and property stocks was offset by strong gains across energy and materials.

Morning report 14/07/2026 10:01

What Matters Today: Should we sell when insiders do?

The ASX 200 has now rallied from early losses to close near its highs for four straight sessions, a classic hallmark of a market with strong underlying buying support. The banks helped the market close higher on Monday, despite 60% of the main board closing lower, but overall it was a fairly lacklustre session considering the fresh US-Iran fighting, which sent US stock and bond futures lower as oil pushed back towards US$80/barrel. Again, we ignored sharp losses across the semiconductor space in Asia, but that’s no major surprise, given the dearth of major AI stocks on the ASX. Unfortunately, news out of the Middle East continued to deteriorate overnight:

Afternoon report 13/07/2026 16:45

The Match Out: ASX prints small gain despite a spike in Oil

The ASX eked out small gains to kick off the week despite oil spiking higher on fresh US-Iran strikes and conflicting statements from each side on whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open to shipping. Six of 11 sectors finished in the red, with most support at the index level coming from the banks, while Telstra (TLS) +1.6% bounced back after last weeks outage.

Morning report 13/07/2026 09:50

Macro Monday: Global Equities remain resilient despite renewed conflict

Last week we saw renewed fighting in the Middle East, with Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice" on Saturday, stating no vessels would be permitted to pass until foreign interference ends. Last week, Crude oil spiked around 8% following the escalation in tensions, although it did surrender some of the gains as the week wore on. However, despite the geopolitical uncertainty, global equities shrugged off the fighting, with the Dow making new all-time highs and the MSCI World Index closing less than 0.5% below its same milestone.

Weekend report 11/07/2026 08:50

Weekend Q&A: The ASX200 continues to tread water around 8800

The ASX 200 finished a soft week on a positive note as miners rebounded strongly on Friday, although the Materials sector still ended the week as the worst performer, down -4.4%. Fresh fighting between the US and Iran combined with a sharp unwind of the AI Trade to weigh on the miners and risk sentiment in general. Encouragingly, improving market breadth helped cushion the downside, with each of the past three sessions following a similar pattern: early weakness attracted bargain hunters, allowing the market to recover and close near its highs.

Afternoon report 10/07/2026 17:08

The Match Out: ASX rises on the day but locks in fourth straight weekly loss

The ASX 200 closed higher today as a rebound in miners and a firmer bank sector offset broad losses elsewhere. Materials was the standout on the day (+2.32%) despite being the week's weakest sector over five days (-4.41%) — a sharp reversal as gold pushed toward US$4,115/oz and iron ore cleared US$99/tonne. Healthcare was the biggest drag, led lower by Pro Medicus. The index still finished the week down 0.43%, its fourth straight weekly decline.

Morning report 10/07/2026 09:40

ETF Friday: Three ETFs MM Is Watching as US Inflows Hit US$1 Trillion

US-listed ETFs attracted more than US$1 trillion in inflows during 1H26, the quickest time the industry has ever reached the impressive milestone. However, the rally was highly concentrated, with around 800 ETFs attracting little or no investor flows. To put these numbers into perspective, the US ETF industry has grown to ~US$19 trillion in AUM as of early 2026, with over 3,000 listed ETFs in the US market.

Afternoon report 09/07/2026 16:39

The Match Out: ASX down but does well considering the news flow

The ASX closed lower on Thursday as a fresh surge in oil prices reignited inflation fears, after Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire was effectively "over" and the US struck Iran for a second consecutive day. The ASX 200 fell as much as ~50pts intraday before rallying through the afternoon to finish down just 22pts – another solid fight back.

Morning report 09/07/2026 09:23

What Matters Today: Are the semiconductors a ticking time bomb, or time to buy into panic?

The ASX 200 continues to ride the volatile rollercoaster it's been aboard for well over 400-days. Last week the local market looked destined for new all-time highs following triple-digit gains on Friday, close on the heels of a strong performance on the Thursday. This morning we're sitting at our desks contemplating what's next after President Trump declared the ceasefire with “scum” Iran is over; we knew he wasn’t happy following the USA’s debacle of an exit from the World Cup, but we didn’t think global tensions would escalate in just a matter of hours. The news is already sounding so familiar to much of the last quarter: