NAB, the country’s top lender to businesses, followed in the footsteps of Westpac, dropping 3.6%, after flagging a sharp rise in bad debt provisions ahead of its 1H result, with impairments jumping to more than $700mn as it braces for stress among fuel-exposed business customers. The update, driven by rising energy costs and economic uncertainty, saw the stock fall, with investors questioning whether current valuations already fully price in the clouded economic outlook. We weren’t surprised by the bank’s move with the stock in 2026, already by far the weakest of the “Big Four” due to its business focus.
However, despite NAB’s ~10% drop over the last month, ANZ and Westpac remain our preferred two big banks as we head towards reporting and dividend season for the “Big Four” bar CBA.
- We can see the NAB finding support in the $40-41 zone, around 20% below its February all-time high.
MM is cautiously bullish towards National Australia Bank around $40
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