NWH bounced +8.5% on Wednesday after correcting ~23% through the war uncertainty. The company delivered an impressive result in February including a clear beat and upgrade which propelled the stock above $6.50 Here. NWH is a leveraged play on mining and infrastructure capex, monetising its capability as a contractor rather than owning the underlying assets. Hence, when war broke out it triggered a risk-off move, which pressures NRW through rising fuel costs and its cyclical exposure. While commodity prices support mining activity longer term, the immediate impact was fears around margin pressure and a de-rating of the stock – not unlike the whole market where investors “sold first and asked questions later.”
As we saw in February this is a company executing very well into what MM believes is a strong cycle for the mining sector, as was demonstrated by the recent reporting season, hence while not cheap from a historical basis we still believe its well positioned to make new highs through 2026. Ironically, the company is most exposed to iron ore, given its strong ties to producers in Western Australia, a commodity that held up well through March. With a Beta of ~1.4x (Bloomberg), it is well positioned to perform strongly into 2026 if MM’s view of a robust ASX, particularly across mining stocks, plays out.
- We like NWH initially targeting a test of the $7 area, or 15-20% higher.
MM is bullish NWH around $6
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