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The ASX 200 surged to a 5-week high on Monday, closing up +0.9% as the traditional lack of selling during the festive season was met with fairly aggressive buying across the miners, who spent much of the day jockeying for position on the leaderboard. Interestingly, even as gold and silver surged to new all-time highs and copper flirted with its equivalent milestone, it was the uranium names that won this particular race:
- NexGen (NXG) +8.6%, West African Resources (WAF) +7.7%, Silex (SLX) +7.7%, Paladin (PDN) +7%, Mineral Resources (MIN) +6.2%, Newmont (NEM) +5.2%, Sandfire (SFR) +4.2%, Northern Star (NST) +4.1%, BHP Group (BHP) +1.6%, and RIO Tinto (RIO) +1%.
The index is now up +1% month-to-date, only +0.2% below the average for December over the last 20 years – the Santa Rally is on track; it’s just arriving late, again! It’s worth being conscious of a couple of broad characteristics that often occur this time of year:
- The winners of the year extend their gains, making the top-performing fund managers look even better – not much of a push required when the likes of gold and silver surge to new highs.
- The losers of the year often get ignored or largely left behind, a bit like we saw with many of the tech names on Monday, which closed below their initial openings.
Obviously, good things don’t last forever, and when we enter January, it wouldn’t surprise us if some fund managers start to trim mining exposure after the major outperformance in 2025.
Overseas markets were mixed as we head into Christmas, although it was precious metals that stole the show. In Europe, the EURO STOXX 50 and UK FTSE slipped -0.3%. In the US, the Russell 2000 small caps rallied +1.2% while the S&P 500 closed +0.6% higher.
- The SPI futures are calling the ASX200 to open up +0.2% this morning, with the miners again likely to be strong – BHP closed up more than 50c in the US.
MM is cautiously bullish towards the ASX into 2026
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