IGO -7.2%: 4Q results were mixed, with strong performance from Nova Nickel project more than offset by weaker lithium spodumene Greenbushes production and softer cash flow.
- Group earnings of $62 million beat consensus estimates of ~$32m
- 4Q lithium spodumene production was 340,000 tonnes vs consensus estimates at 378,000 tonnes
- 4Q nickel production at 5,100 tonnes of nickel in concentrate vs consensus ~4,200
FY26 guidance points to a slower ramp-up at Greenbushes and elevated costs at Nova with the company guiding to at least $50-$75 million in additional capex on top of what was already announced. Greenbushes’ weaker-than-expected production guidance reflects delays and ongoing ramp up issues, with the lower end implying zero production uplift in FY26. On a positive note, Copper guidance of 8.25-9.25kt came in ahead of consensus at 6.8kt, though not enough to move the dial.
We wrote about the lithium sector and IGO in our AM report yesterday and while we like the sector, we’re holding a cautionary stance. The lithium rebound is still very much intact, however we see better ways to play it, with operational struggles clearly a concern for IGO in the near term.
MM has turned neutral toward IGO
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