Macro Monday: Stocks are running scared

Equities are experiencing a September to forget and although most indices haven’t yet broken below their June lows things are “feeling” worse this time around e.g. the S&P500 closed on Friday 1.6% above its mid-year low but the Dow ended the week at fresh lows for 2022. There was no really good news on either the macro-economic or geopolitical front but we feel it was a trifecta of semi-left-field news that sent stocks reeling e.g. the S&P500 tumbled -4.6% and while the ASX200 fared better only falling 2.4% it’s set to open down another -1.25% this morning. The problem for stocks came from 3 different continents which combined with rising interest rates created a major headwind for risk assets:

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Weekend report 06/09/2025 08:18

Weekend Q&A: US Jobs Report raises more questions than it delivers answers

The ASX200 was whacked 160-points on Wednesday after hotter-than-expected GDP figures tempered rate cut expectations, but by Friday’s close, the market had recovered over 80% of the fall. Nerves increased throughout the week into Friday night's pivotal US Job Report, but after the release, markets remained uncertain as Fed rate cuts looked a given following the weak numbers, but concerns started to percolate around the health of the US economy.

Afternoon report 05/09/2025 17:23

The Match Out: ASX grinds higher in a ‘quiet’ session

The ASX moved higher on Friday though it was one of quietest sessions in recent memory trading in a narrow ~15pt range beyond the open, with next to no news flow to drive individual share prices in the wake of the blockbuster reporting season just gone.

Morning report 05/09/2025 09:38

ETF Friday: Looking at ETFs for Defence exposure

The ASX 200 rebounded strongly on Thursday, closing up +1%. The banks led the gains, with the “Big 4” up an average of nearly +2%, while the retail and tech names played strong supporting roles.

Afternoon report 05/09/2025 20:59

The Match Out: ASX flips the switch, rebounds after heavy selloff

The ASX rebounded strongly today, recovering some of the ground lost in its sharpest one-day fall since April yesterday. A softish open relative to the finish, the index opened +40pts higher but rallied through the day, with some profit taking around midday before another surge in the second half of the session, closing within 5pts of its high.

Morning report 04/09/2025 09:13

What Matters Today: Three Portfolio moves flashing on our radar

The ASX200 hit a buyers' air pocket on Wednesday, leading to its worst day in 5 months when a weak session on Wall Street combined with a strong local GDP print of +1.8% year on year, above the 1.6% expected by economists.

Afternoon report 05/09/2025 17:24

The Match Out: ASX whacked as hotter than expected growth tempers rate cut expectations.

A poor session for local stocks as stronger-than-expected GDP numbers dimmed hopes of another near-term RBA rate cut. Gold extended its record-breaking run, but tech weakness and pressure on the big banks dragged the index lower.

Morning report 03/09/2025 09:40

Portfolio Positioning: The Bull Market feels tired, for now

The ASX200 slipped 0.3% on Tuesday, with over 65% of the main board closing lower, led by the consumer discretionary and staples sectors. With reporting season behind us, the local market feels tired and lacklustre after its +26% rally from its panic “Liberation Day” April low.

Afternoon report 02/09/2025 17:04

The Match Out: Stocks drift lower on little news

A second session where stocks drifted lower on very little news flow, with the US market closed overnight for Labor Day and economic + company data thin on the ground.

Morning report 02/09/2025 09:33

What Matters Today: Can the Retail Sector keep powering ahead?

The ASX200 fell away after an ok first 30 minutes to end Monday, the first trading day of September, down 0.5%. The ASX started the new month on the wrong foot, dragged down by the big banks and major miners, while gold surged to a new all-time high following another post by Donald Trump - more on this later.

Afternoon report 01/09/2025 17:19

The Match Out: ASX starts historically weak month on the back foot

Weakness crept into the ASX today as we start the most challenging month of the year, where the ASX has fallen on average 2% for the past 10 years. Dividends play a role here, however we’ve seen declines 70% of the time, and with markets at/near all-time highs, it’s easy to see why some profit taking may creep into the market ahead of the seasonally strong December quarter. Defensives and Gold outperformed while Tech was the obvious pocket of weakness.