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Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX rises as ARB surges on result, insurers jump on Tokio Marine takeover speculation

The ASX 200 put together one of its better sessions in recent weeks as the market built on Monday’s gains and breadth improved markedly. Ten of the 11 sectors finished higher with Healthcare continuing its rebound, now 44% above its low set back in June. Financials were also notably stronger, finally delivering their first meaningful bounce in around two weeks after falling almost 10% across the previous 12 sessions. BHP hit yet another record high, as weakness across lithium, rare earths, gold and parts of the iron ore complex offset strength in the diversified miners and copper exposures.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

What Matters Today: Has Kazatomprom just reignited the Uranium Trade?

The ASX 200 rallied +0.5% on Monday to close just above the psychological 9100 level, but it wasn't all plain sailing with less than 55% of the main board closing higher. The story remained consistent on the sector front, with the gains by the materials (+61 points) minus the financials (-21 points) almost exactly equalling the day's +44-point net advance. The miners remain the driving force of the ASX, and the reason we’ve recently been outperforming the US, especially since the Treasury pledged support to try and rein in long-dated US bond yields. BHP Group (BHP) grabbed the headlines on Monday, posting new all-time highs, but there were plenty of standout performances amongst the big miners.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX rises as BHP hits a record high and Materials surge

The local market started the week on stronger footing today, rallying sharply at midday before giving back some of the gains through the afternoon. The move was overwhelmingly driven by Resources, hitting a fresh all-time high as copper, lithium, uranium, gold and iron ore names rallied together as BHP pushed to a record high.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Macro Monday: Washington “needs” cheaper money & it’s great for our miners!

Last week saw Scott Bessent emerge as one of the most interventionist Treasury secretaries in financial markets in decades, putting his and the Treasury's credibility on the line in an effort to combat the damaging rise in US borrowing costs. On Wednesday, just two weeks after releasing its schedule for buying back older Treasury securities, the Treasury Department announced it would “at least double” its planned purchases of outstanding 10-year to 30-year debt.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: The miners are poised to surge higher on Monday

The ASX 200 slipped 0.6% last week despite stellar gains by the healthcare (+9.2%) and materials (+5.6%) sectors, as the “Big Four Banks” continued to weigh heavily on the local index. We're three weeks into August and reporting season is going “ok”, but the polarisation between the miners and banks remains entrenched: the miners are rallying with strength in copper and gold while the banks are struggling, being hit with the trifecta of a crunch in housing activity, net interest margin compression, and rising risks of bad debts - as Led Zeppelin famously sang in the 70’s “The Song Remains the Same.”

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX lower as healthcare and REITs drag; GYG shines and gold miners hold firm

The ASX 200 finished lower today taking the weekly decline to around 0.6% as the market gave back part of Thursday’s rebound. The index traded in a relatively narrow range through the day, but underneath the surface the tone remained patchy, with Real Estate, Technology and Consumer Discretionary doing most of the damage while Financials finally managed to stabilise after a very weak run.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

ETF Friday: Will ETFs exacerbate the weakness in the “Big Four Banks”

The ASX 200 closed up +0.3% on Thursday with the resources, ably supported by tech, finally able to offset weakness from the banks, ending a six-day losing streak. On the day, the materials sector added 85-points to the ASX 200 while the financial sector caused a 57-point drag, big numbers when we consider the index only closed up +30-points. The polarisation in performance through August between the banks and miners has been almost unparalleled.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Does the analogy “Don’t fight the Fed” also apply to the US Treasury as they start buying bonds?

The US yield curve has been steepening sharply, with the gap between 2 and 30-year yields widening to ~111bp from ~69bp in late June. Importantly, this is a bear steepener: long-term yields have been rising much faster than short-term yields, reflecting growing investor concern around US deficits, sticky inflation, elevated oil prices and the enormous supply of government and corporate debt. At the same time, softer economic data and a Fed appearing to be on hold for now are keeping the 2-year yield relatively anchored.

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Bang! The ASX closed at a fresh record high today at 9,227, with around 75% of the market finishing higher. Some of the more beaten-up areas are also showing signs of life, with software a clear example following better SaaS earnings from the US. Hopes of a lasting peace deal with Iran are also helping sentiment, although we’ll believe that one when we see it.

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