The ASX200 promised so much on Monday but ultimately delivered just a little as Ukraine tensions came back to the fore as Belarus entered the affray and the West continue to gear up sanctions against Russia – before the ASX even opened US stock futures were down over 2%, gold spiked almost $US40/oz higher and brent crude soared 7%, back above $US105/barrel. MM is looking for a few weeks choppy action across financial markets, which is hardly a grandiose call but if yesterday is anything to go by we feel smack on the money.
The year is less than 2-months old but it feels like stocks have walked a path far longer, broad based US stocks have already corrected ~15% while the previously high flying tech sector has endured a painful 22% pullback primarily around fears that rising inflation / bond yields will see a major rerating of the growth sector – interestingly the last time equities experienced similar “bond jitters” was in late 2018 when the NASDAQ fell 23% just 3-months before soaring to fresh all-time highs.
The ASX200 was smashed 3% yesterday with sheer panic rolling through equities as Russia invaded the Ukraine, its been 67-years since World War 2 and many commentators have already started drawing comparisons as Vladimir Putin shows total disregard for the majority of people in the Eastern European nation, Joe Biden and NATO all in one resounding move. The rhetoric from Putin has also been very aggressive with the following statement catching many people’s attention – if anyone tries to stop us there will be “consequences as you have never before experienced”. The sea of red across our screens come 4pm...
The ASX200 enjoyed a strong recovery yesterday even after US stocks fell over 1%, the buying was broad based with less than 30% of stocks falling as the “risk on” button was re-engaged taking the market up 0.6% with tech stocks finally coming to the fore – time will tell but perhaps MM nailed it with Tuesdays report : “What Matters Today: Hold on tight but tech looks set for a decent bounce!“. More on some of the Australian tech stocks a little later but this note won’t be 1-way traffic even if we...
Tuesday saw the ASX200 get smacked 1% as Vladimir Putin ordered troops into the breakaway zones of Ukraine, it looks like sanctions and geopolitical uncertainty are on the menu over the coming weeks / months. Unfortunately the Russian President appears very comfortable to test the UN’s resolve as he starts advancing his pawns in an initial gambit towards Biden and the West, unfortunately this is a very real game with peoples lives at stake as opposed to an enjoyable game of chess.
The ASX200 enjoyed a sharp turnaround yesterday as the news crossed our screens in late morning that Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold talks over the Ukraine / Russia situation – the can gets kicked down the road and war is averted at least for now. We cannot imagine Russia will mount an assault into Eastern Europe after so much stoushing between the respective parties, it would hardly be a surprise attack although it doesn’t feel like anyone will actually stop them. After months of brinkmanship on Ukraine’s border it’s...
After only 7-weeks 2022 has certainly felt like a volatile year but a quick glance at the Volatility / Fear Index would question this interpretation, we may have experienced plenty of action above the average of the last 10-15 years but we haven’t witnessed any sheer panic as we did when markets fell in 2018 around bond yield concerns or like the chaos after US Debt Downgrade in 2011. We have 2 theories why the escalation in volatility has been relatively orderly:
The ASX200 managed to close out Thursday in positive territory but only just after US equity futures turned lower following reports on social media alleging that Ukrainian forces had shelled Russian forces in the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic - the unconfirmed news reports came from the Sputnik Russian state-affiliated media. The rumours quickly wiped away 85% of the local markets midday gains with the drop illustrating the manner in which heightened geo-political tensions...
The ASX200 enjoyed a strong session on Wednesday although it was struggling into lunch as the “sell the strength” mentality that’s dominated most of 2022 took hold as S&P500 futures wobbled however solid broad based buying from 11am pushed the market higher and the index finally closed up more than 1% with 85% of stocks closing positive for the day. A few weeks ago we targeted some consolidation in the 7200 – 7400 region, in hindsight we underestimated how much it needed a rest and its been an even tighter range but still an encouraging...
Tuesday saw the ASX200 drift lower through the afternoon to finally close down 0.5%, again we saw more stocks in the losers corner but it was another sharp decline by iron ore, and its related miners, which overshadowed a recovery by the tech names. BHP Group (BHP) was the best of the bunch only slipping 0.3% after delivering a solid scorecard yesterday as it showcased the fruits of rising commodity prices for miners – if inflation & interest rates have bottomed we could indeed be in the early stages of a “Super cycle” for the Resources Sector.
The year is less than 2-months old but it feels like stocks have walked a path far longer, broad based US stocks have already corrected ~15% while the previously high flying tech sector has endured a painful 22% pullback primarily around fears that rising inflation / bond yields will see a major rerating of the growth sector – interestingly the last time equities experienced similar “bond jitters” was in late 2018 when the NASDAQ fell 23% just 3-months before soaring to fresh all-time highs.
The ASX200 was smashed 3% yesterday with sheer panic rolling through equities as Russia invaded the Ukraine, its been 67-years since World War 2 and many commentators have already started drawing comparisons as Vladimir Putin shows total disregard for the majority of people in the Eastern European nation, Joe Biden and NATO all in one resounding move. The rhetoric from Putin has also been very aggressive with the following statement catching many people’s attention – if anyone tries to stop us there will be “consequences as you have never before experienced”. The sea of red across our screens come 4pm...
The ASX200 enjoyed a strong recovery yesterday even after US stocks fell over 1%, the buying was broad based with less than 30% of stocks falling as the “risk on” button was re-engaged taking the market up 0.6% with tech stocks finally coming to the fore – time will tell but perhaps MM nailed it with Tuesdays report : “What Matters Today: Hold on tight but tech looks set for a decent bounce!“. More on some of the Australian tech stocks a little later but this note won’t be 1-way traffic even if we...
Tuesday saw the ASX200 get smacked 1% as Vladimir Putin ordered troops into the breakaway zones of Ukraine, it looks like sanctions and geopolitical uncertainty are on the menu over the coming weeks / months. Unfortunately the Russian President appears very comfortable to test the UN’s resolve as he starts advancing his pawns in an initial gambit towards Biden and the West, unfortunately this is a very real game with peoples lives at stake as opposed to an enjoyable game of chess.
The ASX200 enjoyed a sharp turnaround yesterday as the news crossed our screens in late morning that Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold talks over the Ukraine / Russia situation – the can gets kicked down the road and war is averted at least for now. We cannot imagine Russia will mount an assault into Eastern Europe after so much stoushing between the respective parties, it would hardly be a surprise attack although it doesn’t feel like anyone will actually stop them. After months of brinkmanship on Ukraine’s border it’s...
After only 7-weeks 2022 has certainly felt like a volatile year but a quick glance at the Volatility / Fear Index would question this interpretation, we may have experienced plenty of action above the average of the last 10-15 years but we haven’t witnessed any sheer panic as we did when markets fell in 2018 around bond yield concerns or like the chaos after US Debt Downgrade in 2011. We have 2 theories why the escalation in volatility has been relatively orderly:
The ASX200 managed to close out Thursday in positive territory but only just after US equity futures turned lower following reports on social media alleging that Ukrainian forces had shelled Russian forces in the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic - the unconfirmed news reports came from the Sputnik Russian state-affiliated media. The rumours quickly wiped away 85% of the local markets midday gains with the drop illustrating the manner in which heightened geo-political tensions...
The ASX200 enjoyed a strong session on Wednesday although it was struggling into lunch as the “sell the strength” mentality that’s dominated most of 2022 took hold as S&P500 futures wobbled however solid broad based buying from 11am pushed the market higher and the index finally closed up more than 1% with 85% of stocks closing positive for the day. A few weeks ago we targeted some consolidation in the 7200 – 7400 region, in hindsight we underestimated how much it needed a rest and its been an even tighter range but still an encouraging...
Tuesday saw the ASX200 drift lower through the afternoon to finally close down 0.5%, again we saw more stocks in the losers corner but it was another sharp decline by iron ore, and its related miners, which overshadowed a recovery by the tech names. BHP Group (BHP) was the best of the bunch only slipping 0.3% after delivering a solid scorecard yesterday as it showcased the fruits of rising commodity prices for miners – if inflation & interest rates have bottomed we could indeed be in the early stages of a “Super cycle” for the Resources Sector.
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