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Morning report

ETF Friday: Evaluating the best & worst performing ASX ETFs of 2025

The ASX 200 finally found some Christmas cheer on Thursday, reversing early losses to close marginally higher, not yet the Santa Rally that we’ve been hoping for, but better than another down day. Less than 55% of the main board closed higher, but a +1.1% advance by BHP was enough to add 8 points to the index, dragging it back into positive territory. It was an extremely quiet day as traders started to focus on the Christmas break, although two stocks still managed to move by over 15%.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Does MM like any of the 5 stocks racing to the bottom on Wednesday?

The ASX200 closed down another -0.2% on Wednesday, but this time it bounced well off its lows to close near its intra-day high, helped by a strong rally by the miners throughout the day. At the end of the session, the materials sector was the only one of the eleven to advance, but its +1.6% rise was enough to offset much of the broad-based losses spearheaded by the healthcare and energy stocks.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: A Christmas rally is running out of time

The ASX 200 dropped 0.4% on Tuesday, reversing early gains as the tech and energy sectors led the decline, falling by 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. However, it was the miners that dragged the index lower, with the materials sector contributing more than 40% of the drop as profit taking rolled across the space. The selling was triggered on two fronts as global investors adopted an “if in doubt, get out” approach ahead of key US jobs data, and of course, Christmas.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Four “Dogs” of 2025 that are gaining traction

The ASX 200 opened weaker on Monday and failed to bounce, ultimately closing down -0.7%, with over 60% of the main board closing lower on the day. It was a rare day for FY26, with the miners leading the market to its worst session in three weeks, with BHP’s 2.9% decline contributing a whopping 35% of the day's decline.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: The Tech Sector may surprise many this week

Over the past three months, Australian financial markets have had to adjust to a sudden reversal in expectations for the RBA cash rate, shifting from the anticipation of cuts to projected hikes in 2026. A complete 180, which has caused significant volatility at the stock and sector levels as investors have had to alter their positioning.
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Morning report

ETF Friday: Looking at 4 ASX ETFs to play the current sector rotation

The ASX 200 surrendered most of its early Fed-fuelled gains on Thursday, closing up only 0.2%. The miners led Australia's market higher, helping the bourse snap a three-session losing streak after a US interest rate cut sparked a rally in raw materials. Still, with winners and losers evenly matched, it wasn’t a broad-based affair.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Are the retailers getting oversold?

The ASX200 closed marginally lower on Wednesday, with the story remaining very much the same at the sector level ahead of the Fed: the materials sector was the best performer, advancing +1.3%, while tech again carried the wooden spoon, retreating +1.5%. This time it was the lithium and gold stocks that dominated the winners' enclosure, with the big iron ore miners adding some useful support. Miners found support from firmer commodity prices, stronger-than-expected China inflation data, and renewed optimism that a Fed easing cycle will ultimately underpin demand.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA follows the script with a hawkish twist

The ASX 200 dropped 0.5% on Tuesday after the RBA held rates steady as expected, but the tone of the statement shifted the decision into a decidedly “hawkish hold”. Michele Bullock's comments pushed bond yields to their highest level since late 2024 and the $A back to its 2025 highs, leaving stocks swimming against the tide ahead of the Fed decision on Thursday.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: With NSR receiving a binding offer, is it still too early to jump back into real estate?

The ASX 200 opened weaker on Monday before trading in another narrow range, eventually finishing the session down just -0.1%. Outside of another impressive session for the lithium stocks, it was a fairly non-committal session with investors and traders alike happy to sit on the sidelines ahead of the RBA today and Fed on Thursday - credit markets are still expecting no change locally and a 0.25% cut in the US, but it’s the accompanying rhetoric that will determine where stocks finish the week.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: The rising cost of debt could be AI’s big hurdle in 2026

Wall Street is lending incredible sums of money as the AI revolution explodes, even as it wrestles with how to shield itself from a potential bubble of its own making. As we’ve shown before, the cost of protecting Oracle Corp. debt against default has risen to the highest since the GFC. The sheer fact that risk levels are comparable to the tumultuous times back in 2007/8 shows how much money is at stake. Mega offerings from tech behemoths, including Oracle, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet, have already helped push global bond issuance well over $US6 trillion in 2025.
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MM remains cautiously bullish towards the ASX into January
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IVV
MM is bullish towards the S&P 500 into January
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MM is bullish towards iron ore into 2026
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MM is bullish on the GAME ETF ~$18.50
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GDX
MM is neutral towards the GDX ETF ~$130
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MM remains cautiously bullish towards the lithium sector in 2026
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MM is neutral towards the BEAR ETF
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MM is neutral towards the VBTC ETF
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Does MM like any of the 5 stocks racing to the bottom on Wednesday?

The ASX200 closed down another -0.2% on Wednesday, but this time it bounced well off its lows to close near its intra-day high, helped by a strong rally by the miners throughout the day. At the end of the session, the materials sector was the only one of the eleven to advance, but its +1.6% rise was enough to offset much of the broad-based losses spearheaded by the healthcare and energy stocks.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: A Christmas rally is running out of time

The ASX 200 dropped 0.4% on Tuesday, reversing early gains as the tech and energy sectors led the decline, falling by 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. However, it was the miners that dragged the index lower, with the materials sector contributing more than 40% of the drop as profit taking rolled across the space. The selling was triggered on two fronts as global investors adopted an “if in doubt, get out” approach ahead of key US jobs data, and of course, Christmas.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Four “Dogs” of 2025 that are gaining traction

The ASX 200 opened weaker on Monday and failed to bounce, ultimately closing down -0.7%, with over 60% of the main board closing lower on the day. It was a rare day for FY26, with the miners leading the market to its worst session in three weeks, with BHP’s 2.9% decline contributing a whopping 35% of the day's decline.

Morning report

Macro Monday: The Tech Sector may surprise many this week

Over the past three months, Australian financial markets have had to adjust to a sudden reversal in expectations for the RBA cash rate, shifting from the anticipation of cuts to projected hikes in 2026. A complete 180, which has caused significant volatility at the stock and sector levels as investors have had to alter their positioning.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Looking at 4 ASX ETFs to play the current sector rotation

The ASX 200 surrendered most of its early Fed-fuelled gains on Thursday, closing up only 0.2%. The miners led Australia's market higher, helping the bourse snap a three-session losing streak after a US interest rate cut sparked a rally in raw materials. Still, with winners and losers evenly matched, it wasn’t a broad-based affair.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Are the retailers getting oversold?

The ASX200 closed marginally lower on Wednesday, with the story remaining very much the same at the sector level ahead of the Fed: the materials sector was the best performer, advancing +1.3%, while tech again carried the wooden spoon, retreating +1.5%. This time it was the lithium and gold stocks that dominated the winners' enclosure, with the big iron ore miners adding some useful support. Miners found support from firmer commodity prices, stronger-than-expected China inflation data, and renewed optimism that a Fed easing cycle will ultimately underpin demand.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA follows the script with a hawkish twist

The ASX 200 dropped 0.5% on Tuesday after the RBA held rates steady as expected, but the tone of the statement shifted the decision into a decidedly “hawkish hold”. Michele Bullock's comments pushed bond yields to their highest level since late 2024 and the $A back to its 2025 highs, leaving stocks swimming against the tide ahead of the Fed decision on Thursday.

Morning report

What Matters Today: With NSR receiving a binding offer, is it still too early to jump back into real estate?

The ASX 200 opened weaker on Monday before trading in another narrow range, eventually finishing the session down just -0.1%. Outside of another impressive session for the lithium stocks, it was a fairly non-committal session with investors and traders alike happy to sit on the sidelines ahead of the RBA today and Fed on Thursday - credit markets are still expecting no change locally and a 0.25% cut in the US, but it’s the accompanying rhetoric that will determine where stocks finish the week.

Morning report

Macro Monday: The rising cost of debt could be AI’s big hurdle in 2026

Wall Street is lending incredible sums of money as the AI revolution explodes, even as it wrestles with how to shield itself from a potential bubble of its own making. As we’ve shown before, the cost of protecting Oracle Corp. debt against default has risen to the highest since the GFC. The sheer fact that risk levels are comparable to the tumultuous times back in 2007/8 shows how much money is at stake. Mega offerings from tech behemoths, including Oracle, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet, have already helped push global bond issuance well over $US6 trillion in 2025.

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