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Morning report

What Matters Today: A time to act like a doctor

The ASX200 drifted -0.3% yesterday following US futures lower during our time zone, losers managed to outnumber winners 2:1 on a day when there were very few standout winners e.g. Cochlear was the best performing stock and it rallied less than 3%.
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Morning report

Macro Monday (on Tuesday): Don’t fight the trend (just yet)!

Following the longest break of the year for the ASX, we’re tipped to open higher this morning as global markets break to new highs with a confluence of better economic data and news of further stimulus in the US last week creating a strong tailwind for risk assets. Last week saw the resumption of the trends that played out in 2020, namely outperformance by the growth / technology stocks and underperformance of value.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Considering 4 of the worst performers from Q1

The first quarter of 2021 is behind us and after 3 extremely choppy months on the stock & sector level the ASX200 itself has managed to advance 3%, or an average of just 1% per month. The determining factor of sector performance year to date has been the sharp appreciation by longer dated bond yields as markets factor in a major post COVID economic recovery.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Q1 is almost behind us.

The ASX200 has totally ignored some strong leads from global indices this week, on Monday morning a test of 6900 appeared imminent but the combination of Brisbane’s lockdown and fears around JobKeeper ending today has sent the local index down closer to 6700 come Tuesdays final bell. – as can be seen on the chart below we’re back at the mid-point of 2021, yet again. The selling yesterday was noticeably broad based with almost 85% of the ASX200 closing in the red, notably the Telco’s were the only sector which managed to close in positive territory as Telstra (TLS) continued to firm.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Is Brisbane an opportunity, or worry?

Yesterday morning we saw Brisbane go into a snap 3-day lock down as fears the UK strain of COVID was about to explode through the capital of the Sunshine State, undoubtedly plenty of Easter holidays have been thrown into disarray by this one press conference.
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MM is neutral the ASX200 as the index follows our anticipated path illustrated below.
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MM is looking for Bitcoin to consolidate its recent huge gains.
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MM remains bullish the $A.
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MM can see US tech failing into fresh all-time highs
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IWM
MM is ideally looking to de-risk a few percent higher
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Our “best guess” is still US 10-year bonds are set to consolidate between 1.4 and 1.9% this quarter
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MM is considering fading current strength in stocks
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NAB
MM will consider trimming our NAB position into strength from say 10% to 5%.
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VUK
MM is considering selling VUK at current levels
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MND
MM is considering selling MND ideally ~$12
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Latest Reports

Morning report

Macro Monday: Are the ducks aligning for further gains?

April is one of the most bullish months of the year for equities with an average gain for the ASX 200 over the past 10 years of 2.5%, while 80% of the time the market has finished the month higher.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Tweaking a number of portfolios with a focus on Flagship Growth

The ASX200 rallied yesterday up through the 6900 level only to falter in late trade to close marginally below the fairly insignificant milestone. Not surprising really given we’ve had a handful of attempts at a breakout only for it to fail and the market to fall back into the trading range that has held firm for more than 5 months now.

Morning report

Macro Monday (on Tuesday): Don’t fight the trend (just yet)!

Following the longest break of the year for the ASX, we’re tipped to open higher this morning as global markets break to new highs with a confluence of better economic data and news of further stimulus in the US last week creating a strong tailwind for risk assets. Last week saw the resumption of the trends that played out in 2020, namely outperformance by the growth / technology stocks and underperformance of value.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Considering 4 of the worst performers from Q1

The first quarter of 2021 is behind us and after 3 extremely choppy months on the stock & sector level the ASX200 itself has managed to advance 3%, or an average of just 1% per month. The determining factor of sector performance year to date has been the sharp appreciation by longer dated bond yields as markets factor in a major post COVID economic recovery.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Q1 is almost behind us.

The ASX200 has totally ignored some strong leads from global indices this week, on Monday morning a test of 6900 appeared imminent but the combination of Brisbane’s lockdown and fears around JobKeeper ending today has sent the local index down closer to 6700 come Tuesdays final bell. – as can be seen on the chart below we’re back at the mid-point of 2021, yet again. The selling yesterday was noticeably broad based with almost 85% of the ASX200 closing in the red, notably the Telco’s were the only sector which managed to close in positive territory as Telstra (TLS) continued to firm.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Is Brisbane an opportunity, or worry?

Yesterday morning we saw Brisbane go into a snap 3-day lock down as fears the UK strain of COVID was about to explode through the capital of the Sunshine State, undoubtedly plenty of Easter holidays have been thrown into disarray by this one press conference.

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