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Morning report

What Matters Today : 3 local stocks we believe can fall 10-15%

The ASX200 marched ever higher on Wednesday closing less than 1.5% below its all-time high, the heavy lifting was performed by the big 3 of the local index - Commonwealth Bank (CBA), CSL Ltd (CSL) and BHP Group (BHP). Again, gains weren’t broad based with under 50% of the market closing positive but its hard to argue with “higher highs” even if the advance is relatively subdued from a momentum perspective.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA maintains its stock market support

The ASX200 continues to oscillate between 7000 and 7100 as ongoing stock & sector rotation maintains the market equilibrium – yesterday saw only 55% of the index rally but when the resources rally strongly plus CBA / CSL post gains the index is almost guaranteed to be well supported.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Can the banks keep charging ahead?

The ASX200 closed marginally higher yesterday as stock & sector rotation remained the main game in town, yesterday was all about the banks and although only 30% of the index closed positive enthusiastic bank buying was enough to keep the indexes head above water.
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Morning report

What Matters Today : Whose correct, iron ore or RIO, BHP et al?

The ASX200 closed up 0.25% yesterday as it continued to grind higher, the speed of its ascent is reminiscent of my kids getting ready for school but there’s no signs of failure at this point in time – our preferred scenario remains a classic seasonal pullback through May & June but the bulls still remain in control at this juncture with 55% of stock rallying on Thursday, led by strength in Healthcare & IT stocks both of which prefer a lower bond yield environment.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Market fails to embrace M&A activity

The ASX200 continues to oscillate around the psychological 7000 level ignoring both good and bad news over recent sessions. Yesterday we saw further positive M&A news from both Bingo (BIN) & Tabcorp (TAH) plus an iron ore sector continuing to recover strongly but disappointingly with over half of the ASX falling the underlying index was unable to register a gain for the day – the stock / sector rotation continues.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Is lumber painting a picture?

The ASX200 slipped lower on Monday failing to take any cheer from a strong end to last week by overseas markets, the session felt like a drift lower on lack of interest with less than 30% of stocks managing to close in positive territory. With the exception of some solid gains by the iron ore names, following a strong session by the bulk commodity, nothing particularly caught our attention on a day where a disappointing 10 out of 11 of the market sectors closed lower.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: No change as stocks hover at all-time highs

Last week saw the ASX200 close basically unchanged although it was fairly choppy from a day to day perspective but with Healthcare stocks picking up the slack in IT and Energy the net result to the index was extremely small. Stock / sector rotation continues to dominate the Australian market as we approach the infamous May – the phrase “sell in May & go away” is founded on hard seasonal facts - over the last decade, while the market was rallying, the average return for May was -3% and June -1.7%.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Where do we like Energy stocks?

The ASX200 rallied strongly on Thursday after a fairly lacklustre start ultimately posting a solid +0.8% gain taking the market to within striking distance of its 2021 high. Gains were again broad based with almost 70% of the market closing up while heavyweights Commonwealth Bank (CBA), CSL Ltd (CSL) and BHP Group (BHP) all outperformed on the day.
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No major change, MM remains cautious the ASX200 around the 7000-7100 area
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CBA
MM remains bullish CBA targeting a break above $100 in 2021/22
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RHC
MM is considering increasing our RHC position
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CSL
MM remains bullish CSL
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NAB
We remain bullish NAB
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MM remains bearish the tech based NASDAQ
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MM is neutral lumber short-term at current levels
VGS
MM remains bullish equities medium-term
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In the coming months MM continues to target the 1.25% area for US 10-year bonds
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SEK
MM is looking for ~15% downside in SEK
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STO
MM is looking for STO to test $6 before $8
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WES
MM would not buy WES at current levels
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Latest Reports

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA maintains its stock market support

The ASX200 continues to oscillate between 7000 and 7100 as ongoing stock & sector rotation maintains the market equilibrium – yesterday saw only 55% of the index rally but when the resources rally strongly plus CBA / CSL post gains the index is almost guaranteed to be well supported.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Can the banks keep charging ahead?

The ASX200 closed marginally higher yesterday as stock & sector rotation remained the main game in town, yesterday was all about the banks and although only 30% of the index closed positive enthusiastic bank buying was enough to keep the indexes head above water.

Morning report

What Matters Today : Whose correct, iron ore or RIO, BHP et al?

The ASX200 closed up 0.25% yesterday as it continued to grind higher, the speed of its ascent is reminiscent of my kids getting ready for school but there’s no signs of failure at this point in time – our preferred scenario remains a classic seasonal pullback through May & June but the bulls still remain in control at this juncture with 55% of stock rallying on Thursday, led by strength in Healthcare & IT stocks both of which prefer a lower bond yield environment.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Real Estate loves low interest rates

The ASX200 rallied solidly on Wednesday embracing what was surprisingly benign inflation data which suggests the RBA will be able to hold off longer than expected before it pulls the trigger on rate hikes.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Market fails to embrace M&A activity

The ASX200 continues to oscillate around the psychological 7000 level ignoring both good and bad news over recent sessions. Yesterday we saw further positive M&A news from both Bingo (BIN) & Tabcorp (TAH) plus an iron ore sector continuing to recover strongly but disappointingly with over half of the ASX falling the underlying index was unable to register a gain for the day – the stock / sector rotation continues.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Is lumber painting a picture?

The ASX200 slipped lower on Monday failing to take any cheer from a strong end to last week by overseas markets, the session felt like a drift lower on lack of interest with less than 30% of stocks managing to close in positive territory. With the exception of some solid gains by the iron ore names, following a strong session by the bulk commodity, nothing particularly caught our attention on a day where a disappointing 10 out of 11 of the market sectors closed lower.

Morning report

Macro Monday: No change as stocks hover at all-time highs

Last week saw the ASX200 close basically unchanged although it was fairly choppy from a day to day perspective but with Healthcare stocks picking up the slack in IT and Energy the net result to the index was extremely small. Stock / sector rotation continues to dominate the Australian market as we approach the infamous May – the phrase “sell in May & go away” is founded on hard seasonal facts - over the last decade, while the market was rallying, the average return for May was -3% and June -1.7%.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Where do we like Energy stocks?

The ASX200 rallied strongly on Thursday after a fairly lacklustre start ultimately posting a solid +0.8% gain taking the market to within striking distance of its 2021 high. Gains were again broad based with almost 70% of the market closing up while heavyweights Commonwealth Bank (CBA), CSL Ltd (CSL) and BHP Group (BHP) all outperformed on the day.

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