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Morning report

What Matters Today: Defensive stocks are looking interesting

The ASX200 enjoyed a strong Wednesday reaching fresh post COVID highs in the late afternoon, only in January & February of 2020 has the local index ever traded higher. When we look at the market internals things currently look good with over 65% of the market rising, plus 10 stocks surged over 10% compared to the days weakest link Credit Corp (CCP) which only fell -3.7%.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Markets are trading at post COVID highs.

The ASX200 is now 2-weeks into both April and Q2 of 2021 and we’re finally seeing some action on the index level with the local market up almost +3% making fresh 12-month highs in the process, the same again on the upside and the bulls will be cheering fresh all-time highs! Yesterday was another fairly uneventful session across Asia with only 55% of the Australian market closing positive, with the exception of the BNPL space roaring ahead, led by Zip (Z1P) which rallied +17%, it was also a fairly muted start to the week under the hood.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: A time to act like a doctor

The ASX200 drifted -0.3% yesterday following US futures lower during our time zone, losers managed to outnumber winners 2:1 on a day when there were very few standout winners e.g. Cochlear was the best performing stock and it rallied less than 3%.
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Morning report

Macro Monday (on Tuesday): Don’t fight the trend (just yet)!

Following the longest break of the year for the ASX, we’re tipped to open higher this morning as global markets break to new highs with a confluence of better economic data and news of further stimulus in the US last week creating a strong tailwind for risk assets. Last week saw the resumption of the trends that played out in 2020, namely outperformance by the growth / technology stocks and underperformance of value.
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MM continues to believe the ASX200 will follow the path illustrated below
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MM is bearish Bitcoin looking for ~20% downside
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VGS
MM is bullish the MSCI World Index medium-term
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MM is cautious US tech around the current 14,000 level
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MM is cautious the KOSPI into fresh highs
Our “best guess” is the US 10-year bonds are set to consolidate between 1.4 and 1.9% over the coming months
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USD
MM remains bearish the $US medium-term
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MM remains mildly bullish the Australian Dollar
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MM is neutral base metals at current levels
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MM is neutral iron ore ~1100 CNY/MT
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MM is bullish copper short-term
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MM looking to increase our exposure to volatility through the (VXX US) ETF
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MM is bullish gold with stops below $1720
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Defensive stocks are looking interesting

The ASX200 enjoyed a strong Wednesday reaching fresh post COVID highs in the late afternoon, only in January & February of 2020 has the local index ever traded higher. When we look at the market internals things currently look good with over 65% of the market rising, plus 10 stocks surged over 10% compared to the days weakest link Credit Corp (CCP) which only fell -3.7%.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Markets are trading at post COVID highs.

The ASX200 is now 2-weeks into both April and Q2 of 2021 and we’re finally seeing some action on the index level with the local market up almost +3% making fresh 12-month highs in the process, the same again on the upside and the bulls will be cheering fresh all-time highs! Yesterday was another fairly uneventful session across Asia with only 55% of the Australian market closing positive, with the exception of the BNPL space roaring ahead, led by Zip (Z1P) which rallied +17%, it was also a fairly muted start to the week under the hood.

Morning report

What Matters Today: A time to act like a doctor

The ASX200 drifted -0.3% yesterday following US futures lower during our time zone, losers managed to outnumber winners 2:1 on a day when there were very few standout winners e.g. Cochlear was the best performing stock and it rallied less than 3%.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Are the ducks aligning for further gains?

April is one of the most bullish months of the year for equities with an average gain for the ASX 200 over the past 10 years of 2.5%, while 80% of the time the market has finished the month higher.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Tweaking a number of portfolios with a focus on Flagship Growth

The ASX200 rallied yesterday up through the 6900 level only to falter in late trade to close marginally below the fairly insignificant milestone. Not surprising really given we’ve had a handful of attempts at a breakout only for it to fail and the market to fall back into the trading range that has held firm for more than 5 months now.

Morning report

Macro Monday (on Tuesday): Don’t fight the trend (just yet)!

Following the longest break of the year for the ASX, we’re tipped to open higher this morning as global markets break to new highs with a confluence of better economic data and news of further stimulus in the US last week creating a strong tailwind for risk assets. Last week saw the resumption of the trends that played out in 2020, namely outperformance by the growth / technology stocks and underperformance of value.

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