The ASX200 and global equities have rallied strongly since their early 2020 COVID meltdown with virtually all major indices posting fresh all-time highs in recent weeks but there might be a new canary in the coal mine, the main question being will it be around for just a few weeks, or much longer. Firstly lets reiterate 3 of the main reasons stocks have “wobbled” in recent sessions:
The ASX200 was clobbered yesterday falling -1.9% plumbing levels not seen since late July as broad-based selling washed through our market, noticeably the “dip” buyers failed to surface as we broke down out of the last few weeks trading range. Only 3% of the main market managed to close up on a day when all pockets of the market suffered, almost 15% of the market retreating by -4%, or more.
The ASX200 continues to rotate around the 7500 area, give it another 9-more days and it will perfectly mirror the 201-point pullback in June / July from both a time & price perspective. Wednesday was a quiet day even while it delivered another recovery from early weakness, we finally closed down -0.2% with less than 30% of the main board managing to close in positive territory. Interestingly Australian stocks still haven’t experienced a 5% pullback in 2021 yet Bitcoin ($US) managed to plunge -15% in just 2-hours on Tuesday illustrating perfectly...
The ASX200 closed marginally higher on Tuesday as it continued to hover around the 7500 level, the number of winners & losers almost exactly matched with only 1% of stocks moving by over 5% i.e. there was little on the stock level to excite investors following the Labor Day holiday in the US. However on the macro / news level there was a couple of interesting events catching our attention:
The ASX200 again rallied strongly after briefly dipping below the 7450 level – I’m almost getting bored of saying “buy the dip” but yet again the local market found a low just as Gladys delivered the NSW’s COVID statistics before enjoying solid buying throughout the day to reverse early loses and close marginally higher, a +1.2% intraday turnaround. Very similar to the trend in home schoolings, the low is certainly formed in the AM before a recovery plays out in the PM! Yesterday it was the unusual combination of IT, Gold and Reopening stocks led...
The ASX200 is a few days into what’s been a very quiet start to September, over the last decade August & September have combined to fall an average of -3.8% but last month’s +1.9% advance should have already warned statisticians that there’s nothing normal about the strength of the post COVID stock market rally – at MM we’re sticking with the trend of “Buy the dips but only fade the “pops” to new highs”. A quick comparison to the current rally with the one after the GFC illustrates...
The ASX200 slipped -0.55% yesterday but once we take out the huge dividends delivered to happy investors the market actually hardly moved e.g. BHP Group (BHP) $2.74, CSL Ltd (CSL) $1.64, Woolworths (WOW) 55c and Perpetual (PPT) 96c. Importantly these funds will drop into shareholders bank accounts around the end of September / start of October providing yet another tailwind for this already resilient market i.e. a significant portion of investors simply reinvest their dividends back into the market...
The ASX200 continued to follow the 2021 playbook yesterday by falling fairly hard into a 10.30 am low prior to grinding higher throughout the day, it finally closed 0.9% above the intra-day low, down just -0.1% i.e. “buy the dip” still reins supreme. Winners actually marginally trumped the losers with the banks in particular catching my eye on the upside with National Bank (NAB) popping +2.2% to make fresh post COVID highs. Septembers off and running and if the ASX200 dances to the same rhythm as it has since May we should be testing ~7700 in the coming weeks.
The ASX200 closed out August in a very similar fashion to much of the previous 6-months i.e. dipping into a mid-morning low before rallying steadily throughout the day. The steady buying was broad-based with almost 70% of stocks advancing although it again felt more like a lack of selling as opposed to an ongoing scramble for risk assets – it’s no great surprise the buying feels more restrained when we consider the ASX200 has already surged 1115-points / 17% from the first week of May. No change...
The ASX200 struggled higher on Monday following an early morning sell-off to finally close up +0.2% courtesy of a stellar performance by the Resources Sector e.g. South32 (S32) +6.2%, Fortescue Metals (FMG) +6.6% and OZ Minerals (OZL) +3.7%. The end of reporting season continued to deliver extreme moves on the stock level with Altium (ALU) missing on margins while Twiggy Forrest’s Fortescue Metals (FMG) delivered a stellar report card leading to a ~20% differential in performance between the 2 stocks in just one day = volatility!
The ASX200 was clobbered yesterday falling -1.9% plumbing levels not seen since late July as broad-based selling washed through our market, noticeably the “dip” buyers failed to surface as we broke down out of the last few weeks trading range. Only 3% of the main market managed to close up on a day when all pockets of the market suffered, almost 15% of the market retreating by -4%, or more.
The ASX200 continues to rotate around the 7500 area, give it another 9-more days and it will perfectly mirror the 201-point pullback in June / July from both a time & price perspective. Wednesday was a quiet day even while it delivered another recovery from early weakness, we finally closed down -0.2% with less than 30% of the main board managing to close in positive territory. Interestingly Australian stocks still haven’t experienced a 5% pullback in 2021 yet Bitcoin ($US) managed to plunge -15% in just 2-hours on Tuesday illustrating perfectly...
The ASX200 closed marginally higher on Tuesday as it continued to hover around the 7500 level, the number of winners & losers almost exactly matched with only 1% of stocks moving by over 5% i.e. there was little on the stock level to excite investors following the Labor Day holiday in the US. However on the macro / news level there was a couple of interesting events catching our attention:
The ASX200 again rallied strongly after briefly dipping below the 7450 level – I’m almost getting bored of saying “buy the dip” but yet again the local market found a low just as Gladys delivered the NSW’s COVID statistics before enjoying solid buying throughout the day to reverse early loses and close marginally higher, a +1.2% intraday turnaround. Very similar to the trend in home schoolings, the low is certainly formed in the AM before a recovery plays out in the PM! Yesterday it was the unusual combination of IT, Gold and Reopening stocks led...
The ASX200 is a few days into what’s been a very quiet start to September, over the last decade August & September have combined to fall an average of -3.8% but last month’s +1.9% advance should have already warned statisticians that there’s nothing normal about the strength of the post COVID stock market rally – at MM we’re sticking with the trend of “Buy the dips but only fade the “pops” to new highs”. A quick comparison to the current rally with the one after the GFC illustrates...
The ASX200 slipped -0.55% yesterday but once we take out the huge dividends delivered to happy investors the market actually hardly moved e.g. BHP Group (BHP) $2.74, CSL Ltd (CSL) $1.64, Woolworths (WOW) 55c and Perpetual (PPT) 96c. Importantly these funds will drop into shareholders bank accounts around the end of September / start of October providing yet another tailwind for this already resilient market i.e. a significant portion of investors simply reinvest their dividends back into the market...
The ASX200 continued to follow the 2021 playbook yesterday by falling fairly hard into a 10.30 am low prior to grinding higher throughout the day, it finally closed 0.9% above the intra-day low, down just -0.1% i.e. “buy the dip” still reins supreme. Winners actually marginally trumped the losers with the banks in particular catching my eye on the upside with National Bank (NAB) popping +2.2% to make fresh post COVID highs. Septembers off and running and if the ASX200 dances to the same rhythm as it has since May we should be testing ~7700 in the coming weeks.
The ASX200 closed out August in a very similar fashion to much of the previous 6-months i.e. dipping into a mid-morning low before rallying steadily throughout the day. The steady buying was broad-based with almost 70% of stocks advancing although it again felt more like a lack of selling as opposed to an ongoing scramble for risk assets – it’s no great surprise the buying feels more restrained when we consider the ASX200 has already surged 1115-points / 17% from the first week of May. No change...
The ASX200 struggled higher on Monday following an early morning sell-off to finally close up +0.2% courtesy of a stellar performance by the Resources Sector e.g. South32 (S32) +6.2%, Fortescue Metals (FMG) +6.6% and OZ Minerals (OZL) +3.7%. The end of reporting season continued to deliver extreme moves on the stock level with Altium (ALU) missing on margins while Twiggy Forrest’s Fortescue Metals (FMG) delivered a stellar report card leading to a ~20% differential in performance between the 2 stocks in just one day = volatility!
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