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Morning report 23/12/2024 09:57

Macro Monday: A snapshot look at markets into Christmas

The ASX200 was thumped 2.76% last week after the Fed side-swiped credit markets on Wednesday when, after cutting rates 0.25%, they delivered a less dovish outlook for interest rates than was expected; • The Fed revised its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, indicating that there will be two reductions, down from the four forecasted in September – a reasonable change in just three months. • Credit markets have already become sceptical towards the two cuts and are now pricing in a 50-50 chance that the 2nd won't be forthcoming before next Christmas. • Markets have been concerned that Trump's policies will lift inflation. The Fed appears to be getting ahead of the curve, just in case.

Morning report 20/12/2024 09:51

What Matters Today: Five stocks on our radar if we see a deeper correction

The ASX200 was thumped 141 points, or 1.7% on Thursday courtesy of Jerome Powell's change of tune, which saw the forecasted path of US interest rates shift.

Morning report 19/12/2024 09:39

What Matters Today: The Fed smacks equities as we consider if potential graphite tariffs are supportive of Rare Earth.

The ASX200 ended down -0.1 % on Wednesday; the market looked excellent around midday, but the bears took over in the afternoon, with the Treasurer’s mid-year economic update potentially weighing on the confidence of the local market.

Morning report 18/12/2024 09:40

Portfolio Positioning: China & Trump not helping the ASX

Yesterday, an index of Asian currencies retreated to a two-year low. Pessimism towards China's economic outlook, coupled with the belief that Trump would support the Greenback, has sent the Bloomberg Asia Dollar Index (ADXY) down more than 4% since late September.

Morning report 17/12/2024 09:48

What Matters Today: Looking at Infrastructure opportunities as the RBA pivots

The ASX200 slipped another -0.56% on Monday, closing at its lowest level in a month ahead of global rate decisions. The local benchmark retreated for the fifth straight session, its longest losing streak since April. Losses were broad-based, with over 70% of the main board retreating but led by mining and real estate stocks.

Morning report 16/12/2024 09:25

Macro Monday: The RBA pivots, but employment remains very strong

The last year has been a roller-coaster for bonds, with analysts changing their minds about the path for RBA rate rises/cuts like the weather! The only constant has been RBA Governor Michele Bullock, who has been consistent in her message to the market, i.e. don’t get too optimistic towards rate cuts as inflation remained sticky. That all changed on Tuesday afternoon.

Morning report 13/12/2024 09:14

What Matters Today: Does MM see opportunities in the digital marketplace stocks?

The ASX200 opened firmly on Thursday before reversing more than 50 points to finish the session down 0.3%. Strong unemployment data did not help the day, reining in bets for an RBA rate cut in February.

Morning report 12/12/2024 09:43

What Matters Today: Three stocks we like as the RBA pivots on rates

The market further embraced Tuesday's more dovish rhetoric from Michele Bullock on Wednesday as bonds rallied (yields lower) and the Aussie Dollar fell to fresh 2024 lows on the prospect of RBA rate cuts in 2025. Our preferred scenario is unchanged, but the risks have certainly skewed to a more aggressive path by the RBA.

Morning report 11/12/2024 09:43

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA ignites the “Rate Cut” optimism fire

The ASX200 slipped -0.36% on Tuesday, but the pronounced stock/sector rotation is what caught our attention. The stimulatory rhetoric out of Beijing on Tuesday saw aggressive buying return to the ASX miners, in a similar fashion to late September.

Morning report 10/12/2024 09:48

What Matters Today: MM’s Top picks in our four portfolios into 2025

The ASX200 staged an impressive recovery on Monday after being down ~50 points at around 11 am; 8 of the main board's 11 sectors closed higher which was enough to see the index eke out a small gain for a day that saw an absence of selling into early weakness.