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The ASX200 reversed early gains on Thursday to close marginally in the red as weakness in the influential Resources Sector more than offset ongoing strength from both the tech and banking stocks. The last few years have seen major stock & sector rotation within the ASX depending on the macro events in focus at the time, since mid-June its been all about bond yields correcting as central banks ease off their hawkish rhetoric while the risk of a recession in 2023 has been increasingly factored into the market, the moves over the last 7-weeks tells a clear tale:
The ASX 200 fell sharply today, the damage felt heavily in the resources with gold miners hit hardest as bullion dropped overnight on stronger USD following the Fed’s interest rate hold, while rate-sensitive growth and property stocks continued to struggle in the higher-for-longer rate environment.
The ASX 200 rose another 0.3% on Wednesday, with around 70% of the index finishing higher as oil prices eased slightly and buying interest returned to the miners - RIO (+1.2%) and BHP Group (+0.7%). However, it was a relatively quiet session as investors digested this week's RBA’s split rate decision ahead of this morning’s Fed meeting, where no change was expected for a second consecutive meeting, and since the attacks on Iran, rate cuts are now not anticipated until late 2026.
The ASX 200 closed up in a decent session, shrugging off the RBA’s move and the immediate Iran-related volatility and instead refocusing on underlying fundamentals. With the RBA firmly in the rear-view mirror following Tuesday's hike, attention has shifted squarely to tonight's US Federal Reserve decision. Tech and real estate led the charge, with growth stocks clawing back recent losses as bond yields settled and seven of eleven sectors finished higher — the kind of broad participation that hints at improving conviction in a wobbled market.
The ASX200 rebounded +0.4% on Tuesday, with most of the gains enjoyed after the RBA lifted interest rates from 3.85% to 4.1% at 2.30 pm. The materials sector was back on top of the leaders board, advancing +1% as gold stocks led the bounce, while tech was back in the naughty corner, retreating another 1.25%, taking it within 4% of making fresh 2026 lows.
The ASX closed modestly higher on Tuesday in a session that was entirely about one thing: the RBA. A split 5-4 decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% initially sent the dollar and bond yields lower as the narrow margin cast doubt over the path ahead, but banks and materials held the index in positive territory, though it wasn't a convincing rally.
The ASX200 ended a choppy session on Monday down 0.4%, with miners and tech stocks leading the declines. While fewer than 40% of the main board finished higher, it was the heavyweight miners that drove most of the decline, with BHP, Northern Star and Fortescue accounting for around 60% of the day’s net fall.
The ASX 200 fell as a broad sell-off in the mining sector overwhelmed a solid showing from defensives and financials. Six of eleven sectors finished higher, but that didn't matter much when the heavyweights were doing the damage. Gold miners were hit as bullion continued to slide following two consecutive weeks of declines. Iron ore stocks also weighed after China's state-backed trader eased restrictions on BHP ore grades — partially unwinding last week's fear-driven rally as fresh data showed Chinese steel output fell 3.6% in the first two months of the year.
The worst oil supply disruption in history shows little sign of easing, keeping crude elevated since the Iran conflict began as Trump and Iran’s new leader signal little appetite for de-escalation. Washington has allowed more sanctioned Russian crude to flow in an attempt to cap prices, but markets are increasingly concerned that Trump & Co may have bitten off more than they can chew, particularly with US mid-term elections looming in November.
The ASX200 ended a choppy week down 2.6%, with the Middle East conflict weighing on equities. Energy was the only sector to finish higher, while rate-sensitive tech (-7%) and real estate (-5%) dragged on the index as surging oil prices reignited inflation fears. The influential materials sector also endured a tough week, retreating -4.7% as weakness in copper and gold stocks offset a bounce in iron ore names. However, the market's largest stock, BHP, weighed heavily on the index, falling 5.7% over the week as a Chinese ban on its iron ore caused increasing angst. The moves on Friday night in the US point to more of the same next week, with gold and copper stocks coming under renewed pressure.
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