What Matters Today: Could a Russian bond default cause panic in stocks?

Wednesday saw the ASX200 continue its march towards new all-time highs finally closing up another 50-points, the index closed within 1.6% of its previous milestone set back in August of 2021. Gains were reasonably broad-based although we still saw over 30% of the index close in the red, the resources again weighed on the index while the growth related stocks were the standout winners e.g. Xero (XRO) +5.3%, Megaport (MP1) +7% and carsales.com (CAR) +3.5% – we are seeing a new trend emerge, if bond yields simply trade sideways then tech stocks extend their recovery. However the current “bounce” can be put into perspective when we consider how some of the individual…

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Morning report 09/12/2025 09:31

What Matters Today: With NSR receiving a binding offer, is it still too early to jump back into real estate?

The ASX 200 opened weaker on Monday before trading in another narrow range, eventually finishing the session down just -0.1%. Outside of another impressive session for the lithium stocks, it was a fairly non-committal session with investors and traders alike happy to sit on the sidelines ahead of the RBA today and Fed on Thursday - credit markets are still expecting no change locally and a 0.25% cut in the US, but it’s the accompanying rhetoric that will determine where stocks finish the week.

Afternoon report 08/12/2025 17:20

The Match Out: ASX slips ahead of RBA Call, National Storage (NSR) gets the nod for takeover

The ASX finished lower as investors moved to the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s RBA policy decision, with sentiment soft despite a modestly positive lead from Wall Street and little in the way of corporate news flow to drive individual names. Lithium names were a bright spot following last week’s sector upgrade however this was offset by gold stocks which retreated as bullion eased over the weekend.

Morning report 08/12/2025 09:48

Macro Monday: The rising cost of debt could be AI’s big hurdle in 2026

Wall Street is lending incredible sums of money as the AI revolution explodes, even as it wrestles with how to shield itself from a potential bubble of its own making. As we’ve shown before, the cost of protecting Oracle Corp. debt against default has risen to the highest since the GFC. The sheer fact that risk levels are comparable to the tumultuous times back in 2007/8 shows how much money is at stake. Mega offerings from tech behemoths, including Oracle, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet, have already helped push global bond issuance well over $US6 trillion in 2025.

Weekend report 06/12/2025 10:27

Weekend Q&A: The week of Central Banks is upon us

The ASX 200 recovered late in the week after a sluggish start, finishing up +0.2% over the five days. It was a notably quiet week overall, with the index trading within a narrow 0.8% range. However, on the sector level, it was another very polarised week with the materials +3% and energy +2.4% sectors extending recent strength while the rate-sensitive tech, healthcare and consumer discretionary names continued to struggle with the futures market now pricing in one, perhaps two rate hikes by the RBA in 2026, what a difference a few weeks make!

Afternoon report 05/12/2025 16:20

The Match Out: ASX flat as UBS pushes Lithium upgrades

A mildly positive session for the ASX today, and enough to secure a second straight weekly gain as investors continue to recalibrate expectations for interest rates. The RBA steps up to the plate on Tuesday, no change expected, though commentary is important, while the US Federal Reserve is tipped to cut rates on Thursday.

Morning report 05/12/2025 09:36

ETF Friday: Navigating the resources sector with ETFs – 2

The ASX 200 enjoyed a firm session on Thursday, closing up +0.3% on its intra-day high, an uncommon trait of late. It was another session where the miners supported the local market but this time the banks finally played a supporting role.

Afternoon report 04/12/2025 17:12

The Match Out: ASX higher as Copper hits new milestone

The ASX edged higher on Thursday, with record-breaking copper prices doing the heavy lifting as interest-rate-sensitive sectors sagged under rising bond yields. Bond markets have now priced out any chance of an RBA rate cut this cycle, and traders are assigning a 15% probability of a rate hike as early as February. Strong household spending data for October, the biggest jump in two years added weight to the RBA’s concern that inflation remains too sticky.

Morning report 04/12/2025 09:45

What Matters Today: Investing for the Hacking vs Cybersecurity arm wrestle

The ASX200 advanced +0.2% on Wednesday, with the utilities and energy sectors leading the market higher, even though more stocks on the main bourse ended the day in the red. On the stock level, gains were mixed, but another strong session by BHP added almost 50% of the day's gain on its own. MM remains bullish towards miners, believing they will continue to outperform the broad market as they have over the last 6-months, although we do believe several of the large tech names are close to a sharp bounce, especially if/when rate hike fears fade.

Afternoon report 04/12/2025 09:47

The Match Out: ASX edges higher, WiseTech rallies on strategy day

A good day to have the Market Matters Christmas lunch, with a very quiet session playing out across the board. The ASX inched higher by the close as softer-than-expected GDP data briefly rekindled hopes the RBA might not need to tighten rates in 2026.

Morning report 03/12/2025 10:47

Portfolio Positioning: Four stocks down 40%, MM likes for a rebound in 2026

The ASX200 tried and failed to close above 8600 on Tuesday, with mining and energy stocks again supporting a nervous index. However, ongoing weakness in the rate-sensitive stocks saw the tech -1.6%, utilities -0.4%, and consumer discretionary -0.3% sectors all retreat as bets increased that the RBA will hike rates through 2026 - traders are now pricing in a ~70% chance that Michele Bullock & Co move +0.25% by next Christmas.