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Undervalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 20.51 Fair value 24.20 One-star price 28.56
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (20.51) to the one-star price (28.56).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 16.67 |
| Price - 12 month high | 36.81 |
| Price - 12 month low | 16.21 |
| Pricing date | 29 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 0.38 |
| Market capitalization | 1,399.08 |
| 12 Month High price date | 31 OCT 2025 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 15 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 0.37 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 0.06% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -15.38% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | -12.68% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -3.81% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -54.58% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -47.00% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -6.77% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.107 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.107 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1.066 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 8.409 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 8.409 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 8.868 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 8.868 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 8.095 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 8.095 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.572 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.572 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.242 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 1.242 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.690 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 1.927 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.108 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.108 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.108 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.108 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.741 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 15.06 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 15.64 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 1.98 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 2.06 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 22.49 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 13.42 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.88 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 30.68 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 14.91 |
| Net Debt, LFI | -16.68 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 1.69 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 2.05% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 4.15% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 4.14% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 61.88 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 5.51% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 6.68% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 4.67% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 5.82% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 61.88 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 702.02 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 702.02 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 160.89 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 160.89 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 122.98 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 122.98 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 92.41 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 92.41 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 117.88 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 88.96 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 1.07 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 13.16% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 13.16% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 16.16% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 16.16% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 17.52% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 17.52% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 19.17% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 19.69% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 8.06% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 8.81% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 14.42% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 10.40% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 10.40% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 12.42% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 12.42% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 13.52% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 16.75% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 2.41% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | -4.59% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 2.54% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 1.71% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 1.51% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | 0.86% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 8.28% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 2.68% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | -1.71% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
Last week we saw a few more ASX 200 names follow our roadmap by making fresh 2026 lows before recovering strongly. These stocks, like ARB, are ones we see investors chasing higher into Christmas as they search for value.
ARB surged following its FY26 result, and optimistic FY27 outlook, covered here, though bearishness quickly resumed - the share price has more than halved over the last two years. The stock has endured a brutal 12 months, materially underperforming both the ASX 200 and Consumer Discretionary sector (-19.5%).
ARB +13.87%: It’s been a horrible year for ARB on a number of fronts, however earnings have held up okay, and management were more optimistic on what FY27 could bring during today’s update.
The retailers are coming back into favour which could just be some EOFY book squaring or a more meaningful pivot that bond yields are peaking. Today ARB has the added tailwind this month that tradies are speccing up their Utes ahead of June 30th.
We are making several changes to the Emerging Companies Portfolio
ARB –13%: The stock fell after 1H FY26 results came in softer year-on-year, reflecting a tougher domestic and OEM backdrop, but the underlying message was better than the headline suggests. Management reiterated confidence in a second-half improvement, supported by a healthy order book and strong offshore momentum.
A tough one for ARB Corporation yesterday, flagging a material decline in earnings for 1H26 as confession season warms up (the period ahead of reporting when companies flag they’re unlikely to meet earnings expectations). In ARB’s case, tough domestic conditions couldn’t be fully offset by strength in its smaller export business.
ARB +8.55% had a great session after the Australian vehicle accessories maker reported inline earnings, announced a special dividend and provided solid guidance.
We are making a switch in the Emerging Companies Portfolio today.
Bapcor is one of the largest distributors of automotive parts and accessories in Australia (& NZ), with a retail network operating under brands Autobarn and Burson Auto Parts, plus a wholesale operation servicing mechanics. Yesterday the CFO George Saoud resigned after a very short stint (appointed July 2024), and not long after the new Executive Chair/CEO took the reins, ex 7-Eleven boss Angus McKay.
MM is bullish towards ARB targeting ~25% upside.
MM is bullish towards ARB around $16.50
MM remains long and bullish ARB
Trade Idea: Buy ARB Corp Ltd (ARB) at $19.65 with stops at $18.05, around 8% risk
MM is adding to ARB in the Emerging Companies Portfolio, reinforcing our 5% portfolio weight around $22
MM remains long & cautiously bullish ARB ~$21
MM is bullish towards ARB around $20.
MM remains long but in wait-and-see mode on ARB around $28.
MM remains long & bullish ARB
MM are buying ARB in the Emerging Companies Portfolio, allocating 4% around $39.88
ARB designs, manufactures, and distributes four-wheel-drive and light commercial vehicle accessories. The firm has carved a niche with aftermarket accessories including bull bars, suspension systems, differentials, and lighting. ARB operates manufacturing plants in Australia and Thailand and sales and distribution centers across several countries. The Australian division, which generates the vast majority of group earnings, distributes through the ARB store network, ARB stockists, new-vehicle dealers, and fleet operators.
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