HomeReportsThe Match Out: ASX rallies, Iron Ore surges ~10%, Resource…
A strong bounce back from early morning weakness today as the late sell-off in Tech shares overnight cast a shadow over the market early, however with commodities strong and strength during the Asian time zone today, the local material sector provided a strong backbone for the ASX to overcome technology weakness and finish nearly 0.8% higher – back up through 7400 in the process.
The ASX endured a tough session with heavy selling in Financials and Healthcare on a read-through from Bank of Queensland’s shrinking net interest margins and a brutal downgrade from Cochlear. The weakness came despite relatively stable overseas leads after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire extension – pushing US Futures higher during our time zone. However, with no deadline in play, the question becomes how long negotiations will be drawn out for, with higher oil prices incrementally adding to inflationary pressures each day that passes.
The ASX200 finished a choppy session little changed on Tuesday, for a third straight session, amid a looming US-Iran ceasefire deadline and continued tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, it was a quiet session on both the stock and sector front with only the consumer staples (+0.76%) and energy sector (-0.9%) moving by more than 0.5%, with the index remaining range-bound between 8890 and 9020 for the 10th consecutive session.
The ASX traded in a choppy, rotational session today with the market remaining in limbo, waiting for more news on a deal between the US and Iran. Rather than a broad risk-off move, the local bourse largely shuffled capital between sectors as traders repositioned portfolios for what a “post-conflict” environment might look like, with some recent winners - financials and energy seeing profit-taking, while technology attracted renewed buying.
The ASX200 clawed back early losses to finish marginally higher on Monday, up just 0.1%, after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut again almost as quickly as it had reopened. Another session where the market held its ground despite the weekend's escalation in Gulf tensions, and another reminder that investors have largely stopped reacting to each new headline with fresh conviction. The net result was more of the same: headline fatigue is well and truly setting in.
SPI Futures were pricing a rise today of +82pts following strength in the US on Friday night, however the weekend news flow was anything but positive, with the Strait of Hormuz closing just as quickly as it opened. Oil prices spiked ~8% first up this morning, Gold fell ~$US40, US Futures traded down ~0.7% and Australian equities opened flat – which is where they closed – not a bad effort considering.
Friday delivered a textbook geopolitical whipsaw. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 surged to fresh record highs, and crude oil sold off sharply after Iran's Foreign Minister declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open for commercial traffic — markets breathed, algos bought, and risk was back on.
The ASX200 finished the week down -0.2%, snapping a 3-week winning streak as it failed to embrace the strength across global indices. A +13% surge by the tech sector wasn't enough to offset losses by the influential banks, with the financial sector ending the week down -2.1%. Westpac set the tone early in the week, flagging that interest-rate volatility tied to the Iran conflict had hit its market’s income and prompted higher credit provisions. While not unexpected given rising rates, cost-of-living pressures and higher fuel prices, the update reinforced a cautious “if in doubt, get out” stance from investors ahead of May results from ANZ, NAB and Westpac
The ASX 200 slipped today, ending the session lower, awaiting further clarity on negotiations around the US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The market snapped a three-week winning streak after the sharp rebound seen earlier in the month, though the pullback looks more like a period of consolidation rather than a meaningful shift in the broader trend.
For a third consecutive session, the ASX 200 opened strongly above 9000 before falling away throughout the day, dragged lower by the influential banks - it must be reading the MM report this week! Such is the hefty influence of the banks that, although over 60% of the main board closed higher on Thursday, an average drop by the “Big Four Banks” of over 2% was enough to drag the index down by 0.3%. Under the hood, the markets following the MM script so far this week.
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