HomeReportsPortfolio Positioning: The “Trump Bump” continues…
China attempted to give equities a shot in the arm on Tuesday but it was extremely short-lived. We expected the “China Trade” to pullback after its aggressive rally in late September but the retracement has been deeper than anticipated with the market now firmly in a “glass half empty” mood
The ASX200 ended last week largely flat, holding September's current pullback to 1.2%. It may have been a quiet week on the index level, but it wasn’t on the sector level, with solid gains by the rate-sensitive tech, real estate, and utilities sectors while the energy sector fell 4.5% as OPEC+ maintained its elevated supply. It was disappointing to see the local index drift while US indices punched higher, although a number of majors trading ex-dividend did weigh locally. The heavyweight miners slipped slightly after mining giants Anglo American / Teck Resources agreed to merge, forming a ~$53 billion copper powerhouse.
The ASX had a solid end to the week, with a broad-based rally following on from Wall Street’s record-setting session overnight. Expectations that the Fed will move on rate cuts as soon as next week helped fuel gains in financials and miners, while gold continued its charge toward fresh highs, offsetting weakness across the energy names.
The ASX 200 retreated 0.3% on Thursday, with the losses in the banking sector catching the eye after Bendigo (BEN) became the third bank this week to announce job cuts.
The market gave back some ground today on weakness in banks and healthcare, despite strength across gold and stabilisation for lithium stocks that took a bath yesterday. There was also a host of defense wins across various companies, driving gains in most.
The ASX200 advanced +0.3% on Wednesday, but the performance was extremely polarised on the stock and sector levels. Less than 45% of the main board advanced, but when the “Big Four Banks” rally an average of more than +1.5%, the index will always be hard to suppress.
The ASX edged higher into the afternoon session, though the overall tone remained mixed as gains in the financials were offset by heavy selling across the resource complex, particularly the Lithium stocks as a Chinese mine restart is now set to happen sooner than expected.
The ASX200 slipped another 0.5% on Tuesday, extending September's retreat to 1.9% as the often weak month follows the seasonality script to a tee. Banking shares led the index fall, with heavyweight CBA worst on ground, closing down 1.3%. Gold stocks continued to shine as the market goes “all in” on a Fed rate cut next week; elsewhere, other rate-sensitive names like the retailers and tech stocks continue to outperform.
Weakness in the banking sector weighed on the local market today, overriding optimism from Wall Street that the Fed is poised to cut rates next week. Gold remained hot with bullion hitting new all-time highs again overnight while there were some select pockets of strength elsewhere, largely amid tech and defensives.
OPEC+ has agreed in principle to raise production again next month, highlighting the alliance’s determination to expand supply despite a looming surplus. Crude prices are down more than 10% this year on rising output and weaker demand from a soft Chinese economy and uncertainty courtesy of Trump’s trade war, yet resilience in the market has spurred Saudi Arabia and Russia to keep pushing barrels back online.
The ASX drifted lower on Monday despite a strong showing from technology, with ex-dividend names and weakness in banks and energy offsetting gains. There was a defensive undertone to the session – aside from strength in tech and lithium it wasn’t enough to outweigh pressure in banks and energy. Gold remains the standout macro theme into September with ETF flows at records, though local gold equities continue to lag – a trend we’ve written about in recent notes. The market more broadly continues to oscillate around the 8850 level, with breadth softening.
Check your email for an email from [email protected]
Subject: Your OTP for Account Access
This email will have a code you can use as your One Time Password for instant access
Verication email sent.
Check your email for an email from [email protected]
Subject: Your OTP for Account Access
This email will have a code you can use as your One Time Password for instant access
!
Invalid One Time Password
Please check you entered the correct info, please also note there is a 10minute time limit on the One Time Passcode
To reset your password, enter your email address
A link to create a new password will be sent to the email address you have registered to your account.
Market Matters members receive daily market reports, real-time trade alerts, full access to 5 portfolios and dynamic company data.
Choose how you'd like to proceed:
We have a range of membership options to suit your needs and budget, why not join today and get unlimited access to the premium Market Matters service.
