Portfolio Positioning: The RBA is in no hurry to cut interest rates, they say!

Michele Bullock played yesterday’s media conference with a very straight bat after the RBA left official interest rates at their 12-year high of 4.35%, but credit markets either don’t believe her or think she’s got it wrong.

At this stage, the RBA implied it’s closer to hiking, believing inflation is still “too high.” It stated, “We are not ruling anything in or out, but vigilance is to the upside.”
However, credit markets have zero belief that a hike is a risk and are still pricing at 80% chance of one cut before Christmas and three or four by the end of 2025.

The market clearly doubts whether the RBA seriously considered another hike. We’ve been saying for months that the RBA doesn’t want to hike, although it’s not totally off the table, and this view still feels on point. A few days of market volatility, largely driven by the unwind of the “Yen Carry Trade”, isn’t enough to make central banks cut interest rates; inflation is their primary focus, although they will remain vigilant to external circumstances, including ongoing market volatility. If we stand back and put things into context, the ASX200 is up +1.2% in 2024 and posted new all-time highs last week, numbers that shouldn’t unsettle the RBA.

scroll

OPINION
ACTION

Latest Reports

Afternoon report 24/12/2025 14:24

The Match Out: ASX slips, Happy Christmas All

A softer session today, giving back a portion of yesterday's solid move, though trading was quiet; volumes anemic and most focus is now on the Christmas break, with a 2.10pm close this afternoon.

Morning report 24/12/2025 10:43

Portfolio Positioning: The Christmas rally kicks into gear

Firstly, from James, Shawn & the MM Team, we wish you a happy and safe festive season. Many thanks for being a wonderful group of members, and your ongoing support throughout the year. It's been a year of two halves for the ASX and MM in many ways, but we’re finishing on the right foot across all portfolios. In todays note, we’ll run through portfolio performance, in a lighter style Christmas Eve report. A reminder, if you are considering investment options in 2026, all Market Matters Portfolios are now open for investment, via Market Matters Invest Direct, including the International Equities Portfolio which has had a stellar year, up over 25%. We will continue to work hard in 2026, building on a solid 2025.

Afternoon report 23/12/2025 16:43

The Match Out: Santa rally in full swing as ASX soars, Goodman Group (GMG) inks major deal

The ASX finished sharply higher, extending its pre-Christmas rally as broad-based buying pushed the market to a six-week high and saw all sectors finish higher for the second day in a row. Optimism around US rate cuts, light year-end volumes and strong US markets overnight combined to lift risk appetite, with real estate and technology leading gains.

Morning report 23/12/2025 09:18

What Matters Today: Understanding the Data Centre (DC) models as NEXTDC jumps

The ASX 200 surged to a 5-week high on Monday, closing up +0.9% as the traditional lack of selling during the festive season was met with fairly aggressive buying across the miners, who spent much of the day jockeying for position on the leaderboard. Interestingly, even as gold and silver surged to new all-time highs and copper flirted with its equivalent milestone, it was the uranium names that won this particular race:

Afternoon report 22/12/2025 16:46

The Match Out: Commodities drive ASX rally, Nick Scali upgrades guidance

The ASX surged today, as a rally in commodities combined with rising expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts lifted risk appetite into the Christmas break. Gold was the standout driver, with energy and uranium stocks joined the rally, and banks posting modest gains, cooling from early strength.

Morning report 22/12/2025 09:26

Macro Monday: Can commodities extend their gains into 2026?

With a few trading days remaining, 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most polarised on the performance front in decades - the materials sector is up +28%, while tech is down -21% and healthcare is off -24%. The ASX200 is up ~6% (10% inclusive of dividends) camouflaging the volatile activity on both the stock and sector levels.

Weekend report 20/12/2025 09:11

Weekend Q&A: Some Christmas cheer is coming on Monday

The ASX 200 ended the week down -0.9%, leaving December up just +0.1% with the quiet Christmas period ahead. However, with the market set to open strongly on Monday morning, a Santa Rally could be set to arrive, albeit extremely late. Remember, the average gain for a December over the last 10 and 20 years is 1.0% and +1.2% respectively, still comfortably attainable by the local market from today’s position.

Afternoon report 19/12/2025 16:21

The Match Out: ASX up today, though down for the week

The ASX pushed higher on Friday, supported by a rebound in technology stocks and strength across the banks, following softer-than-expected US inflation data that reignited expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite today’s gains, the market is still tracking its first weekly decline in four weeks.

Morning report 19/12/2025 11:20

ETF Friday: Evaluating the best & worst performing ASX ETFs of 2025

The ASX 200 finally found some Christmas cheer on Thursday, reversing early losses to close marginally higher, not yet the Santa Rally that we’ve been hoping for, but better than another down day. Less than 55% of the main board closed higher, but a +1.1% advance by BHP was enough to add 8 points to the index, dragging it back into positive territory. It was an extremely quiet day as traders started to focus on the Christmas break, although two stocks still managed to move by over 15%.

Afternoon report 18/12/2025 17:25

The Match Out: ASX bounces into the close, Boss Energy hit on mine update

The ASX was on track to finish lower for a fourth consecutive session, before a solid rally in the afternoon positioned the index with its head just above water.