Portfolio Positioning: Equities cannot withstand the gravitational pull of bonds

Earlier in the year, we felt markets were far too optimistic towards rate cuts, i.e. US futures were pricing in three cuts before Christmas, the best possible outcome and even with the Feds rhetoric continually targeting three cuts, the risks of two remained high. Now, we believe things are swinging in the other direction. The market is now pricing in 1.69 cuts by Christmas; at MM, we’re rarely keen to fight the Fed, and we think two cuts remain a strong possibility, as they remain keen to cut at some stage, i.e. markets are now too pessimistic, ultimately good news for rate-sensitive stocks/sectors.

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Weekend report 12/07/2025 09:38

Weekend Q&A: Tariffs are back, but equities are still flaunting new highs

The ASX200 slipped 0.3% last week after dancing around the psychological 8600 level almost daily. While the index traded in a tight range, it was a very different story on the stock and sector level, with utilities surging +3.4% while real estate fell -3.2%, two theoretically rate-sensitive sectors moving in opposite directions. However, most of the action unfolded in the resources with a strong advance by iron ore in the back end of the week, helping heavyweight BHP Group (BHP) bounce over $2 to test its March high.

Afternoon report 11/07/2025 17:12

The Match Out: ASX dips, Rare Earth stocks roar, as U.S Govt buys in

The ASX 200 once again knocked its head on the 8600 level today, with a strong open sold into as US Futures tracked lower during our time zone after news emerged of a potential 35% tariff on imports from Canada to the US.

Morning report 11/07/2025 09:07

ETF Friday: Looking to small-cap ETFs for another leg higher in stocks

The ASX 200 closed up +0.6% on Thursday, a further 0.6% gain today, and it will post a fresh intra-day high. The rotation on the stock/sector level is currently chaotic, with yesterday's moves largely a reversal of Wednesday's, although the recovery by lithium names continues to gather bullish momentum.

Afternoon report 10/07/2025 17:04

The Match Out: ASX follows U.S higher, shrugs off tariffs

Between copper, pharmaceutical and country-specific tariffs sprayed across the globe by U.S President Donald Trump overnight, there was plenty on the macro front for the local bourse to digest today.

Morning report 10/07/2025 09:45

What Matters Today: Can the Utilities Sector Extend its Recent Outperformance?

The ASX200 fell 0.6% on Wednesday, its largest decline in two months, as the market spent its 26th day rotating in a relatively tight 200-point range. However, while the index has been very calm for almost six weeks on the stock level, it's been a very different story with the return of tariff uncertainty and the ever-changing perceptions around the future path for interest rates, spiking volatility across stocks – it’s just been a case of rotation between sectors instead of between stocks and cash.

Afternoon report 09/07/2025 17:42

The Match Out: Stocks hit as Trump ramps up tariffs

A weaker session today as Copper tariff news created some volatility amongst the resources, gold stocks were weak, while rate sensitive areas like property felt the pinch from the RBA reticence to cut rates yesterday.

Morning report 09/07/2025 09:46

Portfolio Positioning: The ASX shrugs off no rate cut in just a few hours!

The ASX200 had plenty of reasons to fall on Monday, but again, come 4 p.m., the bears were left disappointed: Trump is throwing around tariffs again like confetti, the Dow dropped over 400 points, and the almost guaranteed RBA rate cut failed to materialise.

Afternoon report 08/07/2025 18:00