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The ASX200 closed up over 1% on Tuesday on broad-based buying, which saw all 11 major sectors advance, led by real estate, which gained more than 2%. The rebound in the local market felt like fund managers were putting some money to work ahead of tariff announcements and the perceived impact on global inflation and trade.
A solid bounce back today for local stocks, particularly after traders tried to fade the move early with sell orders dominating into strength after the opening spike
We are making 2 changes to the growth portfolio today.
The ASX200 was smacked 138 points on Monday, with over 90% of the main board closing lower, as fears of tariffs and recession kept all but the bravest investors on the sidelines. Local stocks joined a global risk sell-off, as increasing worries about tariffs pushed Japan’s Nikkei down by over 4% and Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong down by more than 1%. MM is getting the first chapter of our forecast contrarian forecast; let’s hope we are correct come Friday.
A soft session to start a pivotal week in markets, though the XX% decline by the ASX was reasonable given a 2% drop on Wall Street + another –0.7% decline by S&P Futures during our time zone today. Tomorrow the RBA decide on interest rates, no change expected this time around though comments in the statement and press conference with Governor Michelle Bullock will certainly be important, with the market pricing in a 75% probability of a cut in May.
We are selling into Gold strength, taking profit on two holdings.
High-conviction, crowded Wall Street bets have been hammered over recent weeks in a similar fashion to the previously hot stocks on the ASX. The unwind accelerated on Friday, with US stocks tumbling to their second-worst day of the year as risk assets were pummelled by renewed concerns that a flurry of tariffs will stoke inflation just as signs increase that consumer sentiment and spending are buckling.
The ASX 200 enjoyed another positive week, although it will face a tough start on Monday following Friday’s weakness in the US where the market was hit ~2%. On the sector front, there were some very different performances, with the finance sector gaining +2.6% while the tech names tumbled 3.3%.
However, it was gold stocks that shone brightly as the precious metal surged another $US60, taking its gain in 2025 to over $US450, or 18%. Combined with a better week for the heavyweight iron ore miners, it was enough to help the Materials sector close higher again, albeit just. On the stock front, the winners and losers were very clearly defined:
Aussie shares were a mixed bag today, with futures indicating –29pts and the market opening down after more tariff uncertainty overnight, a sharp +60pt reversal mid-morning put the index back in positive territory for the rest of the day. Tech stocks took a hit, though it wasn’t enough to keep the market down; an early rally led by iron ore and gold stocks kicked things off as the precious metal soared to fresh all-time-highs, with a rotation into defensives and energy providing a second wind.
We are making two changes to the Active Growth Portfolio today.
